Chargers vs. Cardinals Monday Night Football Picks: Quarterbacks Duel in the Desert

A More Aggressive Chargers Offense 

Entering the bye week, L.A.’s coaching staff knew that it had to make changes to its offense. Its team had lost two straight games. In both of those games, the Chargers scored ten points.

Coming out of the bye week, it immediately became obvious what change the Chargers’ coaching staff made: it wanted to have its very talented quarterback, Justin Herbert, play a greater role in the offense. Relaxing its disposition to run, Los Angeles had Herbert drop back more than he had all season.

The result: season-highs in completions (21), attempts (34), and passing yards (237) for Herbert.

As a team, the Chargers scored 23 points, which is their second-highest point total of the season. They scored three more points against a Carolina defense that ranks 25 spots behind Denver’s.

Impressively, Los Angeles scored 20 of its points in the first half. The Chargers became conservative in the second half because Denver had failed to score at all.

With Monday’s game in mind, there are two points to make: one, the Chargers will surely continue their more pass-heavy approach because it is clearly effective. Two, as I will explain, Arizona’s offense is much more equipped than one like Denver’s to push Los Angeles to score more points.

Addressing a Counterpoint 

Because Denver’s top cornerback sustained an injury on his first play of the game, one might argue that the Chargers became aggressive on offense only because they knew that they would have an easier time passing the ball with Surtain off the field.

The counterargument here is to suggest that the Chargers’ more pass-heavy approach was anomalous because it was the consequence of an unexpected injury.

Even if Surtain’s injury did motivate Los Angeles to become more pass-focused, Arizona’s secondary certainly does not have a Surtain. The Cardinals rank 22nd in pass defense. They just allowed Green Bay quarterback Jordan Love to throw four touchdowns. Quarterbacks are regularly efficient and productive when they face the Cardinals.

Because the Chargers’ coaching staff has no reason to respect Arizona’s pass defense any more than Denver’s Surtain-less defense, we should continue to expect a stronger dose of Herbert.

Herbert is an efficient quarterback who does not make many mistakes. He’s thrown six touchdowns to one interception this season. Against Denver, we saw him drop dimes all over the field, collecting chunk plays by distributing the pigskin to nine different pass-catchers.

He clearly has good chemistry with his teammates, and a Denver pass rush that ranks 24 spots higher in sack percentage than Arizona’s did not faze him.

J.K. Dobbins 

In Los Angeles’ two other highest-scoring games — the Chargers also scored 22 against the Raiders and 26 against the Panthers, even though those are low-ranking and anemic offenses that regularly fail to push opponents to score more points — its running back thrived.

J.K. Dobbins‘ two highest rushing performances of the season came against the Raiders and Panthers, respectively. Dobbins amassed 135 rushing yards against the Raiders and 131 against the Panthers. His YPC average was 7.7 against Carolina and 13.5 against Las Vegas because he is a consistent big-play threat.

Arizona ranks 29th in run defense, allowing over 150 rushing yards per game. So, Dobbins must be expected to go off against the Cardinals’ defense.

Given what Dobbins and a more aggressive Herbert can do, it is reasonable to expect the Chargers to score around 30 points.

The Mobile Kyler Murray 

Arizona has the offensive weaponry to push the Chargers to keep scoring a lot in the second half, which they are able to do against weaker defenses like Las Vegas. 

Quarterback Kyler Murray is a major impetus for the Cardinals’ offense. His running is one of his best assets; in Arizona’s two highest-scoring games, when it scored 41 against the Rams and 24 in San Francisco, Murray achieved his two highest rush yardage totals of this season.

The Cardinals’ offense is demonstrably more effective when Murray runs. I like Murray to run a lot in this game because his coaching staff is going to watch the Chargers’ last game.

Arizona’s coaches will easily observe the difficulty that Los Angeles’ defenders had with trying to wrap up Denver’s slippery mobile quarterback Bo Nix. Nix looked absurdly elusive and overall dangerous as a runner, as he ran for 61 yards on the Chargers. 

And yet, Murray is at least as difficult to tackle and at least as quick, as evident in his 50-yard touchdown run against the 49ers.

Murray’s Passing 

Murray will also succeed as a passer. His mobility will enable him not only to increase his rush yardage total but also to extend plays in order to complete more passes. Defensive backs can’t cover pass-catchers forever, so eventually Murray is going to find a target.

It is true that he might miss Marvin Harrison Jr., who sustained a concussion last week. But Murray doesn’t need him. When Arizona scored 28 points in its season-opener in Buffalo, MHJ managed all of four yards. Murray was able to lean, instead, on guys like Greg Dortch, James Conner, and Trey McBride, all of whom remain healthy.

Arizona’s pass-catching depth will prove vital against a Chargers secondary whose top cornerback is on IR and who has three other cornerbacks listed as ‘questionable’ for this game with different injuries.

Murray’s most important target is his tight end, McBride. No other pass-catcher brings stability to and raises the ceiling for Murray’s passing performances like McBride.

Hence, he is a consistent target for Murray — Murray has targeted him at least six times in every game he’s played in. He did not play in Arizona’s game against Washington, which was uncoincidentally a blowout loss for the Cardinals.

McBride’s outlook is great against a Chargers team that allows the eighth-most yards to tight ends. McBride’s strong outlook elevates Murray as the passer.

Takeaway

The Chargers have benefitted from facing teams — the Raiders, Panthers, and Broncos — that rank at least ten spots behind the Cardinals in total offense.

Arizona’s more dangerous offense, especially with its mobility at quarterback and its solid tight end, will push Los Angeles to score more points.

With a stud in Justin Herbert at quarterback, the Chargers are already more inclined to be more aggressive through the air. 

Their pass attack will face an easy test from Arizona’s secondary and will benefit from the fact that Arizona’s low-ranking run defense will have its hands full with the big-play running back J.K. Dobbins. 

For the above reasons, expect both teams to combine for 50 or more points.

NFL Pick: Over 43.5 (-110) at BetOnline 

Over 43.5 (-110)

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