Chargers vs. Texans AFC Wild Card Round Pick: Herbert Ready to Zap Houston’s Hopes

The Chargers’ Greatly Improved Offense

It is impossible to use season-long statistics to assess the quality of the Chargers’ offense. This is because it has morphed and improved — greatly — throughout the season. First, it was a run-centered offense that was very conservative. After its bye week, it became more pass-heavy.

Making Justin Herbert a greater focal point of the offense was a great idea because he’s an excellent quarterback. In his first game against Denver, for example, he helped the Chargers score 20 first-half points before they coasted to a 23-16 victory.

For a longer time, the Chargers continued to struggle to score in the second half. But Los Angeles enters Saturday’s affair scoring 19.3 points per second-half in its last three games. Only Washington scored more second-half points in this span of time.

Los Angeles’ Impressive Recent Resume

We are only justified in doubting the capabilities of Los Angeles’ offense on Saturday if the Chargers’ offense has been thriving merely against soft competition.

Skeptics will want to claim that Houston has a high-quality defense, overlooking the very high point totals that it allowed lately to Will Levis-led Tennessee, Baltimore in a blowout loss, and conservative Kansas City.

Still, the Chargers’ recent performances must silence these skeptics. They enter Saturday’s game having scored:

• 34 points against Denver.
• 40 against New England.
• 34 against Las Vegas.

Their 34-point output against the Broncos is particularly impressive because Denver owns the third-best scoring defense and, among other defensive accomplishments, ranks first in sack rate.

The Chargers’ Pass Attack

I believe that their most impressive performance is the 40-point one in New England.

The Chargers achieved this point total primarily by relying on Herbert — Herbert was 26-for-38 for 281 yards, three touchdowns and zero interceptions.

Herbert’s output is especially noteworthy because the Patriots, led by one of the best cornerbacks Christian Gonzalez, rank tenth in pass defense. New England held Buffalo MVP candidate Josh Allen in check, limiting him to 154 passing yards on 16-of-29 passing, but was overwhelmed by Herbert.

Herbert’s Weapons

Herbert is doing so well and is able to perform so strongly against high-ranked pass defenses because his wide receivers are developing. His best wide receivers are young former early-round draft picks who are finally proving to be solid draft selections:

• Ladd McConkey accumulated 82 receptions for 1,149 yards this season.
• Fellow young wide receiver Quentin Johnston has greatly improved his yards-per-game average since the start of November.
• Supported by J.K. Dobbins and his 4.6 YPC, the Chargers’ offense is well-rounded.

C.J. Stroud Is Overrated

Houston’s quarterback, C.J. Stroud, carries a strong reputation, but this reputation exists because of how he came onto the scene last year.

Whereas his passer rating was 100.8 last year, though, it is 87.0 this year. He makes many more mistakes, as evident in his high interception total, and is not nearly as productive as before. And to be fair, he is disadvantaged by a beleaguered wide receiver corps that misses both Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell to injury.

His poor offensive line explains why Houston’s offense ranks eighth-to-last in preventing sacks, which will struggle against a defense that features All-Pro pass-rushers like Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack.

Outlook for Chargers’ Pass Defense

Houston is a pass-heavy team, ranking ninth in pass-play percentage. It needs to pass well, but it will struggle to do so against the Chargers’ seventh-ranked pass defense.

Spearheaded by defensive coordinator Jesse Minter, Los Angeles is allowing the fewest points per game. Minter has structured his defense in a way that benefits his defensive backs. Derwin James, for example, enjoys being free to roam the field because Minter likes to keep two other safeties positioned deep.

Other individual players are stepping up in their new roles, such as cornerback Kristian Fulton, who excels at limiting opposing yards.

These defensive backs are able to thrive because the front seven does its job, as evident in the run-stopping and pass-rushing success of its individual members. Los Angeles has the scheme and personnel in place to prevent deep passing plays and can limit opposing passing yards in general without devoting extra resources to its run defense.

Houston’s Decline

Overall, Houston is in decline since starting the season 6-2. The Texans are on a 0-4 run against playoff teams. They are, overall, 4-5 in their last nine games, which includes a loss to the lowly Jets.

Whereas the Chargers are beating playoff teams, scoring a lot of points and playing top-caliber defense, the Texans are struggling to beat the likes of Jacksonville.

Takeaway

Quality-wise, these are two very different teams. Yet the Chargers are favored by only three points because oddsmakers are slow to make adjustments.

We see, though, that Los Angeles now has the offensive firepower to score upwards of 30 points against any defense. They also have a great defense that will limit a beleaguered and overrated Houston offense.

I am seeing a 30-14 win for Herbert and his crew.

NFL Pick: Chargers -3 (-107) at BetOnline

Chargers -3 (-107)

Visit Site

*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.