Chiefs vs. Bills NFL Week 11 Picks: Can Buffalo Make a Statement at Home?

Kansas City Survived Against Denver

The Chiefs have found numerous ways to secure victory over an impressive 15-game winning streak that stretches back to last season. From Patrick Mahomes orchestrating clutch, last-minute touchdown drives, to a resilient defense making critical stops, and Harrison Butker nailing game-winning field goals, Kansas City has proven adaptable in any situation.

Their win over the Broncos on Sunday introduced yet another game-winning method—a walk-off block. As Denver attempted a 35-yard field goal in the final seconds, Chiefs linebacker Leo Chenal burst through Denver’s line and managed to get his hand on Wil Lutz’s kick, sealing a 16-14 victory at home.

Mahomes threw for 266 yards and a touchdown, helping the Chiefs match their best franchise start at 9-0 and become only the fifth Super Bowl champion to go undefeated through its first nine games the following season. Their 15-game win streak is the longest in the league since the Packers’ 19-game streak in 2010-11.

Travis Kelce contributed eight catches for 64 yards and a touchdown, while DeAndre Hopkins added four receptions for 56 yards. Despite a modest 35-yard rushing effort, Kareem Hunt was impactful in the passing game with seven catches for 65 yards.

Buffalo Wins Fifth Straight Game

The Bills’ defense took control early, setting the tone when Taron Johnson intercepted Joe Flacco’s first pass and returned it 23 yards for a touchdown. Josh Allen and James Cook each added rushing touchdowns, guiding Buffalo to a 30-20 win over the Colts on Sunday, their fifth straight victory.

Buffalo, now 8-2 for the first time since 1993, has scored over 30 points in four consecutive games and achieved their first win in Indianapolis since 1998, despite a depleted receiving corps.

Allen completed 23 of 37 passes for 280 yards with two interceptions and added 50 rushing yards along with his 57th career rushing touchdown, tying him with O.J. Simpson for the second-most in Bills history. Cook ran for 80 yards on 19 carries, while Mack Hollins recorded six catches for 86 yards.

Buffalo’s defense consistently pressured Flacco, forcing four sacks, three interceptions, and a fumble recovery that led to scoring opportunities. They also shut down Jonathan Taylor in the second half after he surpassed 100 rushing yards in the first.

Injuries remain a concern for the Bills, who played without receivers Keon Coleman and Amari Cooper and lost tight end Dalton Kincaid mid-game. Their status for Sunday remains uncertain.

Key Matchups

This high-stakes matchup between the Chiefs and the Bills promises to be a battle of dynamic playmakers and physical defenses. Both teams come into this game with momentum and elite players on both sides of the ball, setting the stage for an epic showdown.

Patrick Mahomes vs. Bills Defense

Mahomes has been outstanding, consistently delivering clutch plays and showing the poise needed to execute in close games. The Bills’ defense, however, has excelled at forcing turnovers, collecting four sacks and three interceptions against the Colts.

They’ll look to apply similar pressure on Mahomes, who, while adept under pressure, could find himself challenged by Buffalo’s disciplined secondary. This duel could come down to Mahomes’ ability to evade the rush and find his go-to targets under tight coverage.

Travis Kelce and DeAndre Hopkins vs. Buffalo Secondary

Kelce has been a cornerstone of the Chiefs’ passing game, making crucial catches to keep drives alive. Hopkins adds another layer of complexity for the Bills’ defense, combining experience and precise route running.

Buffalo’s secondary, bolstered by timely interceptions, will need to neutralize these two to have a chance at disrupting the Chiefs’ rhythm. If Kelce and Hopkins can connect with Mahomes frequently, it could spell trouble for Buffalo’s back line.

Chiefs’ Defensive Front vs. Josh Allen

Allen has been effective on the ground and in the air, using his mobility to extend plays and find openings. However, the Chiefs’ front seven has been known to make crucial stops, and a player like Chenal could be pivotal in containing Allen’s rushing ability.

If the Chiefs can get Allen to make quick decisions under pressure, they could force mistakes. That said, Allen’s dual-threat capability may force the Chiefs’ defense to play disciplined, leaving fewer opportunities for blitz-heavy schemes.

Bills Rushing Attack vs. Chiefs’ Front Seven

Cook has been a steady presence on the ground for Buffalo, and he’ll be essential for controlling the tempo against the Chiefs. Kansas City’s defense will aim to limit Cook’s impact and force Allen into predictable passing situations. If Buffalo can establish the run, they’ll have a greater chance to keep Mahomes off the field.

Conversely, if the Chiefs can shut down the ground game early, they’ll be able to dictate the flow and force Allen to carry the load through the air.

Special Teams and Turnovers

Given how evenly matched these teams are, special teams and turnovers could play a deciding role. The Chiefs have relied on Butker for game-winning kicks, while the Bills’ defense has capitalized on opponents’ mistakes. A key turnover or special teams play may swing the game in one team’s favor, especially in what’s likely to be a close contest.

The Pick

This game should stay tight, with each team matching the other’s intensity and scoring potential. Both Mahomes and Allen will have opportunities to exploit defensive gaps, but Buffalo’s recent issues with injuries to key receivers could hinder their offensive versatility.

On the other hand, Kansas City’s ability to generate points through both quick and sustained drives might give them the edge if the Bills struggle to keep pace. I would feel more comfortable if I knew that Coleman, Cooper, and Kincaid would play but I’ll take a chance on the Bills at home. The Chiefs’ recent good luck has to run out eventually.

NFL Pick: Bills ML (-135) at BetOnline

Bills ML (-135)

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