Chiefs vs. Broncos NFL Week 18 Picks: Will Kansas City Rest Some Starters?

Kansas City Chiefs

Patrick Mahomes delivered a masterclass performance, throwing for 320 yards and three touchdowns to lead the Chiefs to a dominant 29-10 victory over the slumping Steelers on December 24, securing the AFC’s top seed in the process.

Mahomes was razor-sharp, completing 29 of 38 passes while distributing the ball to eight different receivers. Xavier Worthy hauled in a career-best eight catches for 79 yards and a touchdown, while Travis Kelce added eight receptions for 84 yards and a score.

Hollywood Brown, returning from injury, chipped in with four catches, providing another weapon in Kansas City’s arsenal. On the ground, Kareem Hunt and Isiah Pacheco combined for 38 yards on 15 carries, with Hunt punching in a touchdown.

The Chiefs seized control early, building a 13-point lead in the first quarter and never looking back. Kansas City’s defense, even without five-time Pro Bowl defensive end Chris Jones (calf injury), stifled Pittsburgh, playing with energy despite it being their third game in 11 days.

Now, Kansas City faces an intriguing choice heading into the final week of the regular season. With their playoff position locked, they can either look to eliminate the Broncos from playoff contention with a win in Denver or rest their key players, including Mahomes and Kelce, to prepare for the Divisional Round.

Denver Broncos

The stakes are high for Denver. A win secures their first playoff berth since their Super Bowl 50 victory, while a loss likely extends their playoff drought to nine seasons.

Division rivalries add an extra layer of unpredictability, as familiar opponents are often tougher to intimidate and relish the opportunity to spoil a rival’s season.

Joe Burrow and the Bengals kept their playoff hopes alive with a thrilling 30-24 overtime victory over the Broncos on Saturday. Burrow connected with Tee Higgins for his third touchdown pass of the game with just 1:07 remaining in overtime.

The Broncos, now 9-7, missed a chance to clinch an AFC Wild Card spot but as mentioned before will have another opportunity against the Chiefs next week. A win over Kansas City would not only secure Denver’s playoff berth but also eliminate Cincinnati.

Bo Nix played efficiently for the Broncos, completing 24 of 31 passes for 219 yards and three touchdowns despite one interception.

Jaleel McLaughlin ran for 69 yards on 10 carries, while Marvin Mims Jr. starred with eight catches for 103 yards and two touchdowns. Courtland Sutton contributed five catches for 55 yards and a score, but it wasn’t enough to outlast the Bengals.

Key Matchups

With the AFC’s top seed already secured, Kansas City may opt to rest Mahomes and start Carson Wentz instead. This adds a new layer of intrigue to a matchup where the Broncos are fighting for their playoff lives. Denver needs a win to secure their first playoff berth since Super Bowl 50, while a loss likely eliminates them.

With Wentz possibly under center, the Chiefs’ offensive approach could shift, relying more on their ground game and short passing. Meanwhile, Denver’s offense, led by Nix, will look to capitalize on any rust or missteps from Kansas City’s defense, which continues to play without Jones.

Carson Wentz vs. Denver’s Defense

If Wentz starts, the Chiefs will likely simplify their game plan to ease him into a rhythm. Wentz’s experience gives him an edge, but his recent lack of consistent NFL reps raises concerns.

Denver’s defense, already motivated by the stakes, will aim to pressure Wentz and force mistakes. Short, efficient throws to Worthy and other wideouts who may play will be key to keeping the Chiefs’ offense moving.

Denver’s Passing Attack vs. Kansas City’s Secondary

Nix has been solid for Denver, completing 77% of his passes last week against Cincinnati. With Mims and Sutton as his top targets, the Broncos can test Kansas City’s secondary, which has been dependable but isn’t elite.

Sutton’s size and Mims’ speed will pose challenges, especially if the Chiefs’ pass rush can’t generate consistent pressure.

Chiefs’ Ground Game vs. Denver’s Front Seven

Hunt and Pacheco combined for just 38 rushing yards last week, but Kansas City may lean on them more heavily with Wentz at quarterback. Denver’s defensive line has been stout against the run, and limiting the Chiefs’ ground attack could force Wentz into unfavorable third-and-long situations.

Broncos’ Running Game vs. Kansas City’s Linebackers

McLaughlin’s efficiency last week (69 yards on 10 carries) highlighted Denver’s ability to create opportunities on the ground.

The Broncos will need to establish the run early to keep the game within reach and set up play-action for Nix. Kansas City’s linebackers will need to play disciplined football to prevent big gains.

Special Teams and Turnovers

Turnovers and field position will play a crucial role, particularly if Wentz starts. Denver has been inconsistent in capitalizing on opponents’ mistakes, but this is their opportunity to turn takeaways into points. Kansas City, on the other hand, has historically excelled at avoiding costly errors.

The Pick

The Broncos, desperate for a playoff berth, will play with urgency and keep the game close. If Wentz starts, the Chiefs’ offense will likely lack the same explosiveness as with Mahomes.

Denver’s ability to sustain drives and control the clock could keep them competitive, but Kansas City’s depth and playmakers like Worthy, Brown, DeAndre Hopkins, and JuJu Smith-Schuster will be the difference in this game.

NFL Pick: Chiefs +10 (-110) at BetOnline 

Chiefs +10 (-110)

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