Chiefs vs. Eagles Super Bowl LIX Picks: Expect a Low-Scoring Defensive Affair

The Importance of Defensive Lines 

We get caught up too easily in the media-driven fascination with quarterbacks, running backs, and wide receivers.

They are the most exciting players. We enjoy watching them the most. Ultimately, we tend to bet on the “over” because, in line with the enhanced enthusiasm that we feel for these players, we are inclined to overestimate their abilities.

But these players cannot exhibit their talents if the offensive line doesn’t do a sufficiently good job.

In order to select the best wager for the over/under, we have to understand that both offensive lines in this game have significant problems that will cause each offense to struggle.

Defensive lines are important because they make life difficult for opposing running backs and opposing quarterbacks — opposing running backs because they rely on good blocking in order to advance the ball downfield and opposing quarterbacks because they need time to find pass-catchers, who themselves need time to run routes downfield and gain separation from the defense.

Issue With Kansas City’s Offensive Line 

Kansas City has had to move its starting left guard to the left tackle position. 

As a result, Mike Caliendo is now the team’s starting left guard.

As his PFF grade shows and as is evident in the number of pressures and hurries he’s allowed, Caliendo is awful.

Philadelphia has a deep and well-stacked defensive line that will blow up the interior of Kansas City’s offensive line primarily by exploiting Caliendo’s awfulness.

Jordan Davis and Jalen Carter are noteworthy in particular. Both top-15 draft picks, they have panned out to become tremendous elements of a Philadelphia defensive line that PFF grades show to be one of the NFL’s very best.

Chris Jones

Kansas City’s defensive line will likewise thrive.

The Chiefs have done a significantly better job of exerting pressure on opposing quarterbacks since Charles Omenihu returned to action.

In their first playoff game, they sacked CJ Stroud eight times. They do a great job of getting to opposing quarterbacks, and especially the less mobile ones will fail to avoid sacks.

While Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen in the AFC Championship Game didn’t take nearly as many sacks, he was pressured on close to half of his drop-backs.

Philadelphia’s Jalen Hurts will face similar pressure.

His starting left guard and center, Landon Dickerson and Cam Jurgens, respectively, are both banged-up.

They will likely play because it’s the Super Bowl, but they still haven’t been able to practice and they will be debilitated.

Kansas City has an elite defensive tackle in Chris Jones, a six-time All-Pro selection.

He will be a menace in this game, as he dominates a debilitated Eagles interior.

Steve Spagnuolo

Hurts already has trouble with his tendency to hold on to the ball too long. He averages the second-highest TT (time to throw).

He will get sacked or be forced to go on the run so many times.

Kansas City is one of the best teams at applying pressure because it has arguably the best defensive coordinator in Steve Spagnuolo, who is famous for designing creative ways in which his defense can pressure the opposing quarterback.

Philadelphia’s Secondary

The Eagles boast the second-ranked pass defense not only because of their pass rush but also because their secondary is well-stacked.

We saw Kansas City, in this postseason, face a similarly strong Houston pass defense.

DeAndre Hopkins, Hollywood Brown, and JuJu Smith-Schuster combined for zero catches against the Texans’ secondary.

Overall, Mahomes threw for all of 177 yards. He’ll struggle to be more productive against the likes of Defensive Rookie of the Year Cooper DeJean, All-Pro selection Darius Slay, and the rest of Philadelphia’s deep secondary.

Long Drives 

In addition to expecting especially both quarterbacks to struggle to be productive in general — which puts all the pressure on Philadelphia’s running back Saquon Barkley to help the game go “over,” because Kansas City lacks an efficient ground game — scheme will also be important.

Both defenses are able to force the opposing offense to work hard for their yards.

Vic Fangio, Philadelphia’s defensive coordinator, relies on a structure with two deep safeties that makes it very hard for opposing quarterbacks to achieve long completions — not that Mahomes would often have enough time to attempt long passes, anyways.

If you want a great example to see what I mean, check out Washington’s first drive against the Eagles in the NFC Championship Game.

Washington’s quarterback executed a fantastic opening drive that, with multiple fourth-down conversions, spanned a great number of yards. But it also took seven minutes and resulted in only a field goal because the Eagles’ defense was able to tighten up as the Commanders (gradually) approached the end zone.

Fangio’s defense lends itself to long drives — if the opposing offense will sustain much of a drive at all.

When Kansas City is on offense, especially with Mahomes struggling to deal with Philadelphia’s defensive line, the drives will be long if the Chiefs don’t have to punt.

Likewise, Philadelphia’s offense will feature long drives — if not punts — because it will be run-first, relying primarily on its star running back instead of on its game-manager quarterback.

Kansas City has, per PFF, the number one tackling defense. Aided by a group of strong tacklers in the secondary as well as Chris Jones and others, the Chiefs will prevent Barkley from achieving big runs.

So, while we (obviously) will see scoring drives in this game, they will take up a lot of time. We will see even more punts, as each team’s defensive line and coverage dominate.

Game Prop

I foresee a lot of running. Barkley was conserved in the NFC Championship Game, but he is Philadelphia’s best chance of winning and this is the last game of the year.

Expect him to go all out with 25+ carries.

Kansas City’s offense doesn’t like to abandon the run. Even with Mahomes carving up Buffalo’s poor secondary last week, Kareem Hunt still accumulated 17 carries.

With fellow Chiefs running back Isiah Pacheco, versatile weapon Xavier Worthy, and others, I see ball-carriers from both teams combining for just over 50 carries.

That leaves the quarterbacks. Both Hurts and Mahomes are characteristically mobile. They combined for 21 rush attempts last week. 

With both defensive lines having them on the run, they will have to run a lot again in this game.

Overall, we will see well over 60 rush attempts in this game.

NFL Picks

• Under 49 (-110) at BetOnline
• Over 59.5 Total Rushing Attempts In The Game – Both Teams Combined at EVEN at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)

Over 59.5 Team Rushing Attempts Combined at EVEN

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