Chiefs vs. Falcons Sunday Night Football Picks: Chiefs to Air It Out?

Chiefs Probably Need to Throw More

For the 1st time in his regular-season career, Patrick Mahomes has not thrown 30 passes in his last 3 outings. In fact, his 151 passing yards against the Bengals in Week 2 are the fewest he’s ever had in a game he finished in his career.

Of course, he only threw 25 passes in that game as Isiah Pacheco had a good day, and he lost 70 yards due to penalties in the last 16 minutes of the game. This should change this week as a fibula injury will keep Pacheco out for 6-to-8 weeks. The team is bringing Kareem Hunt back, and they could go with a combo of Samaje Perine and rookie Carson Steele to replace Pacheco this week. That’s not ideal, especially when the Falcons have looked vulnerable against the run and better against the pass.

So far, Atlanta faced a Pittsburgh team that was very conservative in starting Justin Fields in Week 1, and then the Eagles did not have A.J. Brown available on Monday night. The Chiefs will be the best passing defense this team has seen yet, but there is one glaring issue at left tackle after the Chiefs benched rookie Kinglsey Suamataia in Sunday’s game after he struggled with Trey Hendrickson and had bad penalties. It’s possible he gets benched for this game, which may actually help the Chiefs at this point if that’s how he’s going to play.

Kansas City Prop Advice

When the prop lines come out this week, you really have to think about the overs for the passing game as they try to get by with a committee approach in the backfield without Pacheco. The lack of passing has been unusual for Andy Reid’s offense, and historically, Mahomes likes to light it up even more on the road. He’ll definitely be looking to find Rashee Rice often as the Falcons struggled with George Pickens and DeVonta Smith in both games. Rice has clearly taken over from Travis Kelce as the leading receiver this season.

But in playing Justin Fields and Jalen Hurts, the Falcons have seen opposing quarterbacks hold the ball for an average of 3.26 seconds, the longest in the league according to Next Gen Stats. However, the Falcons have produced a pressure on just 22.2% of pass plays, the worst rate in the league.

That could be bad news against the mobile Mahomes, so I would take the over on whatever line they put on his passing attempts and yards this week. I’d also go with multiple touchdown passes from him in the dome.

Falcons Have Options vs. Kansas City Defense

The Falcons had minimal success in the passing game on Monday night until Cousins finally started giving his receivers chances down the field. It was a big night for Drake London, but so far, the Chiefs have held Zay Flowers and Ja’Marr Chase, two No. 1 wide receivers, under 40 yards despite trading corner L’Jarius Sneed to the Titans.

However, the Chiefs have been getting torn apart by tight ends as Isaiah Likely had that monster game for Baltimore on opening night, and the Bengals had 151 yards from their tight ends last week, the most in any game with Joe Burrow at quarterback.

Could this finally be the week for Atlanta tight end Kyle Pitts to explode? He caught Cousins’ 1st touchdown pass in Atlanta in Week 1, but he only has 6 catches for 46 yards this season. But he might be a good option this week instead of trying to recreate Monday night’s success with London and Darnell Mooney as the Chiefs play better pass defense than the Eagles.

Atlanta Prop Advice

The most consistent player for the Falcons has been running back Bijan Robinson, who is averaging 5.2 yards per carry. His rushing success rate is 59.4%, which is well up from 43.5% as a rookie. He’s also a threat to catch the ball even if the Falcons haven’t thrown it as much as we’re used to seeing from Cousins.

The Chiefs have done an admirable job against the Bengals and Ravens on the ground so far if you exclude the contributions of Lamar Jackson running from the quarterback position in Week 1.

But Robinson is a special talent, and after going 41 touches without a touchdown this season, look for him to reach the end zone for at least the 1st time in 2024 this Sunday night.

Chiefs vs. Falcons: O/U 46.5 Points

Both Kansas City games have gone over 46.5 points, with each team scoring 20 points in both games. They won 27-20 in Week 1 against Baltimore, and that’s a familiar score as they beat Cousins with the Vikings by a 27-20 score on the road last year too. They were even a 3.5-point road favorite in that one, so it’s the same thing here just with a different NFC opponent.

But I like the idea of the Chiefs playing sharper offensive football after having some issues with turnovers against a Cincinnati team that brings out their worst. Like the potential for getting better left tackle play, either by the rookie Suamataia improving following his benching or the backup outplaying him. I also think Kelce has something up his sleeve after claims of being “washed” following this slow start to 2024.

Also reasonable to think the Falcons build on their comeback win from Monday night and can reach over 20 points again in this one. The Chiefs do not look as stingy on defense as they did last season when they held everyone but Green Bay under 25 points.

That 27-20 sounds pretty good again, so we’ll take the over for your NFL picks.

NFL Pick: Over 46.5 (-110) at BetOnline

Over 46.5 (-110)

Visit Site

Chiefs vs. Falcons (+3.5): Who Covers the Spread?