Clemson vs. Pittsburgh College Football Week 12 Free Picks

The Home Dogs Still Have Value

Don’t give up on those home dogs just yet. We might have gotten boned here at the ranch when LSU (+3 at Death Valley) lost 42-13 to Alabama, but did you see how Ole Miss (+2 at The Vaught) beat Georgia 28-10? It was all part of a Week 11 college football betting slate that saw the home dogs make a profit at 8-19 SU and 14-12-1 ATS (53.8%).

So why aren’t we pulling the trigger on Pitt? As we go to press, the Panthers (7-2 SU, 6-3 ATS) are getting 10 points on the college football odds board at Bovada, up one point since the open for Saturday’s ACC tilt with Clemson (7-2 SU, 5-4 ATS). But these home dogs are not like the others – and neither is that house they live in.

Is Pitt Overrated?

That’s what the stats say. These two teams may have the same record, but it’s all been smoke and mirrors for Pitt according to the F+ Ratings at BCF Toys:

• CLEM: No. 13 overall (No. 10 offense, No. 23 defense, No. 120 special teams)
• PITT: No. 45 overall (No. 51 offense, No. 39 defense, No. 15 special teams)

Strength of schedule plays a large role in this disconnect. Clemson opened the 2024 campaign with a 34-4 loss to Georgia (–10.5 at Mercedez-Benz Stadium), setting them up very nicely to exceed expectations afterward. Pitt opened with a 55-24 win over Kent State (+24 at Acrisure Stadium), and have fizzled at 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS after sweeping their first five games.

Is Heinz Field a Tough Stadium?

It is if you’re the Pittsburgh Steelers. But we’re not in the NFL anymore; we’re also not at Pitt Stadium, which was home to the Panthers from 1925 until they tore it down in 1999. Now they’re co-tenants with the Steelers at the former Heinz Field, where they draw around 55,000 (80% capacity) for their home games.

Having said that, Pitt was undefeated (5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS) at Acrisure this year, but then they lost 24-19 to Virginia (+7.5) after QB Eli Holstein took an illegal blow to the head and left in the third quarter. Nate Yarnell did not look good in relief, and while we still don’t know who’ll be under center this Saturday, the Under is now 4-1 in Pitt’s last five games after starting the year 1-4.

What About the Weather?

It’s not bad for this time of year – although not ideal for betting the Under, with partly sunny skies in Saturday’s game-time forecast and temperatures in the mid-50s.

This is still Heinz Field no matter what name they slap on the front, so the swirling winds are going to be challenging for kickers despite the otherwise mild conditions. And field goals have already been challenging enough for Clemson PK Nolan Hauser (13-of-18 this year, 8-of-10 from inside 30 yards).

That massive gap in special teams between these two clubs gives us all the more reason to put Pitt in our college football picks, but we just can’t do it the way they’ve been performing lately.

The Pick

We’re also going to recommend a smaller bet size on the Under, given how good the Panthers offense looked earlier in the season against softer opponents. But the wheels appear to have come off Pitt’s offense just as they’re about to face one of the ACC’s top defenses in Clemson (Under 6-3), so bet accordingly, and may the prolate spheroid be with you.

College Football Pick: Under 54.5 (-108) at Heritage Sports 

Under 54.5 (-108)

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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.