Clemson vs. SMU ACC Championship Game Picks: Can the Tigers Get Back on Track?

Clemson Lost at South Carolina

Clemson fell short in a 17-14 loss to South Carolina on Saturday, undone by a scoreless fourth quarter where the Gamecocks outscored them 10-0. The Tigers had one last opportunity, reaching the South Carolina 18-yard line with 16 seconds remaining, but Cade Klubnik’s pass was intercepted by Demetrius Knight Jr., sealing the defeat.

Klubnik had a solid outing overall, completing 24 of 36 passes for 280 yards but failed to throw a touchdown, adding one interception. He was effective on the ground, rushing for 62 yards and two touchdowns on 10 carries. Phil Mafah added 66 rushing yards on 20 attempts, while Antonio Williams led the receiving corps with eight catches for 99 yards.

Despite the offensive production, costly errors plagued Clemson, and the defense struggled to contain LaNorris Sellers. However, Clemson still secured a spot in the ACC Championship Game after Miami’s 42-38 loss to Syracuse. The Tigers will look to capture their eighth ACC title in the past decade.

SMU Destroyed California

SMU closed out their regular season in dominant fashion with a 38-6 victory over California on Saturday. Brashard Smith starred for the Mustangs with 134 total yards (68 rushing, 66 receiving) and two touchdowns, one on the ground and another through the air. Kevin Jennings contributed 225 passing yards and two touchdown throws.

The Mustangs struck early, scoring touchdowns on three straight drives to build a 21-0 lead by the second quarter, highlighted by Derrick McFall’s eight-yard scoring run. SMU racked up 234 yards in the first half and finished with 415 total yards, notching their 17th straight conference win, a streak carried over from their dominance in the AAC before joining the ACC this year.

Key Matchups

This battle will likely come down to whether Clemson’s defense can stifle SMU’s high-powered attack or if SMU’s balanced offense can exploit Clemson’s recent struggles in key moments.

Cade Klubnik vs. SMU Defense

Klubnik has been Clemson’s offensive centerpiece, consistently moving the ball through the air and making plays with his legs. Against South Carolina, he passed for 280 yards but failed to throw a touchdown, relying instead on his mobility to score twice.

SMU’s defense will need to focus on containing Klubnik’s dual-threat ability. If they can pressure him into mistakes, as South Carolina did late in the game, Clemson’s offense could sputter. Conversely, Klubnik’s poise and ability to extend plays could exploit SMU’s secondary, setting up big gains through the air.

Clemson’s Defense vs. Brashard Smith

Smith has been a dynamic weapon for SMU, combining 68 rushing yards and 66 receiving yards with two touchdowns in their win over California. Clemson’s defense, which struggled to contain South Carolina’s Sellers, will need to stay disciplined against Smith’s versatility.

If Smith can find space in the open field, SMU’s offense could put Clemson on its heels early. However, Clemson’s front seven has the ability to disrupt timing and force Smith into less effective roles if they control the line of scrimmage.

Phil Mafah and Clemson Rushing Attack vs. SMU Front Seven

Mafah’s grinding style (66 yards on 20 carries against South Carolina) will be pivotal for Clemson’s ability to control the clock and keep SMU’s offense off the field. SMU showed moments of vulnerability on the ground in their matchup with California, and Clemson’s offensive line will aim to exploit this.

If Mafah can establish consistent gains and wear down the Mustangs’ defense, it could open up opportunities for Klubnik in play-action scenarios.

Turnovers and Momentum Shifts

Both teams have shown tendencies toward mistakes in critical moments. Clemson’s costly interception at the end of the South Carolina game and SMU’s reliance on momentum-driven offense suggest that turnovers and field position could play a huge role. If either team capitalizes on mistakes, it could shift the game’s outcome.

The Pick

This clash promises to be a clash of styles. Clemson’s ability to sustain long drives and SMU’s explosiveness will create a back-and-forth contest. SMU’s dynamic playmakers could challenge Clemson’s defense, but the Tigers’ offensive balance and experience in high-pressure matchups will help them keep this game close.

College Football Pick: Clemson +2.5 (-108) at Heritage Sports

Clemson +2.5 (-108)

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