Top NCAAB Pick: California +14 (-115) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
We have a nice-sized NCAAB card tonight for a Friday, and we are here with our three best bets on the card, all of which are underdogs you can bet on at our main offshore sportsbooks.
These are value-based bets based on our proprietary model, so not all the plays will involve major conferences. Tonight’s not the case though, as we have two plays from the Pac 12 and a non-conference affair involving another power conference school in Texas.
NC Greensboro Spartans vs. Texas Longhorns
Friday, December 29, 2023 – 08:00 PM ET at
NC Greensboro may be the only non-power school involved in our best bets tonight, but we feel the Spartans are undervalued for this matchup and we are betting them to hang around and cover the double-digit spread visiting the Longhorns in Austin.
One Road Power Win
This will mark the third time this season that Greensboro has faced a power conference school, all on the road, and the Spartans gave a fine account the first two times winning outright at Arkansas and losing by just four points at Vanderbilt. They come in at 9-3 overall, and their ability to slow the pace almost always makes them attractive underdogs.
The Spartans rank 282nd in Tempo Rating and 252nd in average possession length. They do not turn the ball over much at the end of those long possessions, ranking an excellent 11th in turnover percentage at just 13.6% (national average is 17.8%). Even more importantly, those possessions have often produced good looks beyond the arc, with Greensboro ranking 42nd in 3-point shooting at 37.4%.
Not Fast Either
Now, Texas is ranked 39th overall on Kenpom at 9-2 with both defeats being “good” losses against Connecticut on a neutral floor and Marquette on the road. However, the Longhorns do not play particularly fast either, ranking 178th in tempo rating, so they can easily get drawn into UNCG’s snail’s pace.
The Horns are 30th in the land in offensive efficiency with their strength being 2-point shooting at 55.9%. However, the Spartans do a good job of defending the interior, allowing a 47.2% success rate on 2-pointers against a national average of 50.1%. So, while we do not expect UNCG to completely shut down the Longhorns, we do expect Texas to hit below their season average.
The Pick
Thus, what we project here is Greensboro hitting more 3-pointers and Texas hitting more 2-pointers in a game with potentially limited possessions. That sounds to us like a great recipe to take the big points with the Spartans.
Predicted Score: Texas 76 – NC Greensboro 69
NCAAB Pick: NC Greensboro +14.5 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
Washington Huskies vs. Colorado Buffaloes
Friday, December 29, 2023 – 09:00 PM ET at CU Events Center
We feel that this Pac-12 opener between Washington and Colorado in Boulder is a much better matchup than this seemingly inflated spread would indicate, so we are taking the points with the Huskies.
Turnovers Could Be Fatal
The Buffaloes come in at 9-2 and are ranked 23rd overall on Kenpom, but it is worth noting that with the two losses coming to two of the better teams they have faced in Colorado State and Florida State, the highest ranked team that Colorado has beaten thus far is the 65th ranked Miami Hurricanes. The significance of that is Washington is ranked 54th, thus higher than any team the Buffs have beaten.
Now, Colorado ranks 22nd in offensive efficiency and 34th in defensive efficiency, and they are a great shooting team ranking fifth in eFG% at 58.8%. However, the Buffaloes do have one major weakness, which is ball protection. They are 268th in the land of turnover percentage at 19.5%, (national average of 17.8%). That sloppiness cost the Buffs in both losses, where they combined for 33 turnovers.
Close in Every Way (Except Turnovers)
The Huskies enter at 8-3 with all three losses coming to teams in the Kenpom top 40. They also own the two best wins between these two teams, beating 20th-ranked Gonzaga and 43rd-ranked Xavier. That does not sound like the profile of a team that is nearly a double-digit underdog in this spot.
We get that Washington is rated 31 spots below Colorado overall, but looking at their components, the Huskies are well above average in offensive efficiency (49th), eFG% (54th), and offensive rebounding percentage (73rd). So, while the Huskies are not at Colorado’s insane shooting levels, they are good enough to hang close, especially having already beaten better teams.
The one huge difference in these offenses is in turnovers, where the underdog Huskies have the edge, and that is good enough for us to bet Washington getting this many points.
Predicted Score: Colorado 80 – Washington 78
NCAAB Pick: Washington +9.5 (–115) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
Arizona Wildcats vs. California Golden Bears
Thursday Friday, December 29, 2023 – 10:30 PM ET at Haas Pavilion
While we respect Arizona being ranked third in the country while probably being better balanced on both ends of the court than the Houston and Purdue teams ahead of them, we still think this is too many points to be laying on the road to open Pac 12 play, so we are taking the points with California on this matchup.
Lost Two of Last Three
The Wildcats are 9-2 with both losses coming in the last three games, although both came against elite teams in Purdue and 10th-ranked FAU, with both coming on neutral floors. This is still a team ranked sixth in offensive efficiency and second in defensive efficiency, although allowing over 90 points in each of the two losses is a tad disconcerting.
Also, the lofty defensive efficiency rating is highly reliant on not allowing second chances while ranking fourth in defensive rebounding percentage, as Arizona is surprisingly only 80th in eFG% allowed and 133rd in 3-point defense. That is not something you like to see when giving this many points on the road.
Can Make Enough Threes
Now, the Golden Bears are just 4-7, although all four wins have come here at Haas Pavilion. It should be an electric atmosphere tonight with a national powerhouse in town. And while Cal is ranked 161st on Kenpom and does not excel in any one area, the Bears are not terribly bad in any component offensively either.
Most importantly, Cal is above average in eFG% and 3-point shooting, meaning the Bears can take advantage of the weaknesses of the Arizona defense mentioned earlier. With the spread on this game sitting at a consensus +14, that is all you can ask for. It also helps that California is a good offensive-rebounding team at 34.2% against a national average of 29.6%.
The Pick
Arizona may not dominate the defensive glass like they usually do, which combined with California’s ability to make threes here and a supportive home crowd has us taking the bountiful points with the Golden Bears.
Predicted Score: Arizona 86 – California 77
NCAAB Pick: California +14 (-115) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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