Top NCAAB Pick: Pittsburgh-NC State Over 141.5 (-110) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
We have another nice weekday slate of NCAA Basketball on Wednesday full of conference matchups. After going 5-1 in our last two days in this space, we return with three more best bets for tonight.
These are value-based bets based on our proprietary model, so not all the plays will involve major conferences for you to play at top-rated online sportsbooks. We have one mid-major best bet Wednesday from the Missouri Valley Conference, with the others being major plays from the ACC and Big Ten.
Pittsburgh Panthers vs. North Carolina State Wolfpack
Wednesday, February 07, 2024 – 07:00 PM ET at PNC Arena
We begin in the ACC, where we foresee a higher scoring game than the total suggests when Pittsburgh visits NC State in Raleigh.
Ball Protection and Second Chances
Some may consider this Over a sneaky pick with two non-explosive teams, but that may be a key reason why we see line value.
The Panthers are 14-8 but they own a losing ACC mark at 5-6. Pitt is also just barely above the national average of 50.4% in eFG% at 50.8%.
However, the Panthers are still a respectable 75th in offensive efficiency, thanks to being fundamentally sound with ball protection and crashing the offensive glass. Pittsburgh ranks 33rd in turnover percentage at 14.5% (national average 17.4%), and they create second chances with a good offensive rebounding percentage of 32.4% (national average 29.2%).
Score More at Home
The Wolfpack are 15-7 overall and 7-4 in the ACC, tied for fourth in the conference. They have done that despite ranking 230th nationally in eFG%.
To be fair though, NC State has been better offensively at home, averaging 79.2 points. We think anything close to that here would suffice to push this game Over the total.
Also, similar to Pittsburgh, the Wolfpack have managed to be above average in offensive efficiency at 110.5 points per 100 possessions (national average 106.2) despite their less-than-stellar shooting. The key there has been NC State being even better than the Panthers at ball protection, ranking ninth in the land in turnover percentage at a mere 13.7%.
The Pick
On the surface, this is a matchup of two mediocre shooting teams. However, both teams have helped their efficiency by not committing turnovers. Add in NC State being better offensively at home and Pittsburgh creating second chances on the offensive glass and bet the Over on Wednesday.
Predicted Score: Pittsburgh 77 – North Carolina State 76
NCAAB Pick: Over 141.5 (-110) at Bookmaker
Illinois-Chicago Flames vs. Illinois State Redbirds
Wednesday, February 07, 2024 – 08:00 PM ET at CEFCU Arena
We move on to the Missouri Valley for our second matchup. Both Illinois-Chicago and Illinois State have had disappointing years. However, we look for the Redbirds to score enough to prevail at home on Wednesday.
No Offense
Illinois-Chicago enters this contest on an 8-game losing streak, dropping the Flames to 8-15 overall. They sit dead last in the MVC with a 1-11 conference mark.
Their offense has been almost non-existent since the start of conference play. Not that the offense was good to begin with, as UIC is 279th in the country in offensive efficiency,
However, the Flames have taken things to new depths inside the Valley.
They rank 11th in efficiency, 10th in 2-point shooting, and even 10th in turnover percentage. To make matters worse, UIC is averaging an anemic 63.2 points on the road this season while going 2-7 in true road games. We expect more of the same tonight against an above-average Illinois State defense.
Lots of Foul Shots
Illinois State also comes in with a losing record of 11-12, including 5-7 in conference play. At least their situation does not seem as hopeless as UIC’s.
As mentioned, the Redbirds are above average in defensive efficiency allowing 104.2 points per 100 possessions (national average 106.2). Thus, we do not expect the dreadful Flames offense to score much more than 60 points.
That would mean the Redbirds would only need to score in the upper 60s to cover this number, which we think is very attainable. Granted Illinois State is only ninth in the conference in efficiency themselves, but they make up for it with excessive trips to the foul line. They lead the conference and rank 54th nationally in FTA/FGA ratio.
The Pick
Given how poor the Illinois-Chicago offense has been, all those extra trips to the line should be enough for Illinois State to cover this moderate spot at home.
Predicted Score: Illinois-Chicago 61 – Illinois State 70
NCAAB Pick: Illinois State -4.5 (-110) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. Northwestern Wildcats
Wednesday, February 07, 2024 – 09:00 PM ET at Welsh-Ryan Arena
We wrap things up in the Big Ten in a game where home court makes a big difference. Nebraska has been a nice story, but the Cornhuskers are winless on the road in conference play. We are betting on Northwestern to keep it that way with a covering win.
Deadly Beyond the Arc
The Wildcats are 15-7 and 6-5 in Big Ten play. They have been noticeably better at home. Northwestern is 11-1 overall in Evanston and 5-0 in conference play. It is not as if they are beating lightweights at home either, with three of those conference wins coming against Purdue (#2 on Kenpom), Illinois (#8) and Michigan State (#17).
Northwestern is 31st in the nation in offensive efficiency and 29th in eFG%.
However, the key to their success has been 3-point shooting, as they have beaten some stout defenses by shooting over them. The Wildcats are 8th in the country from beyond the arc at 39.3%. and that already great percentage improves further to 40.6% at home.
All Success at Home So Far
Those of you who have followed us know that we have cashed quite a few tickets with the Cornhuskers. They have been a pleasant surprise this year at 16-7.
However, most of that success has come at home, and nothing demonstrates that better than their 6-6 conference record. That is because they are 6-0 at home inside the Big Ten and 0-6 on the road.
Road woes aside, there are also some matchup disadvantages for the Huskers here, with perhaps the most fatal being ranking 12th in the conference in Big Ten play in 3-point defense. Also, Northwestern should be able to run whatever they want offensively, ranking 14th nationally in turnover percentage while Nebraska is 230th in turnover percentage forced.
The Pick
Those key matchup advantages for Northwestern, combined with the huge home/away splits for both teams, have us laying the points with the Wildcats at home.
Predicted Score: Northwestern 79 – Nebraska 68
NCAAB Pick: Northwestern -5.5 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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