Top NCAAB Pick: Illinois -3 (-105) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
The NCAA Basketball season is nearing full swing with nearly 50 games on the main board Thursday. With NCAAB odds in hand, we have isolated our three best bets for the big card at the main offshore sportsbooks.
These are value-based bets based on our proprietary model, so not all the plays will involve major conferences. We have one such non-major best bet in an ugly matchup Thursday, while our other two bets are in the Big Ten and Pac-12.
Michigan State Spartans vs. Illinois Fighting Illini
Thursday, January 11, 2024 – 09:00 PM ET at State Farm Center
We begin with a Kenpom Top 20 matchup in the Big Ten. We are betting 9th-ranked Illinois as cheap chalk at home over seemingly overvalued #17 Michigan State.
Strong on Both Ends
Illinois is well deserving of its ranking at 11-3 with all three losses coming to teams in the Top 20. The third loss came in their last game on Friday. But there is no shame in traveling to West Lafayette and losing by just five points 83-78 to a Purdue team currently ranked #1 on the AP Poll and #3 on Kenpom.
The Fighting Illini have no discernable holes on either end of the court. They rank 7th in offensive efficiency and 21st in defensive efficiency. They are also 30th in eFG% while being hard to handle near the basket, ranking 17th in 2-point shooting at a nice 56.7%. And they are elite defensively. Currently ranking 4th in eFG% allowed, while being superior rim protectors, ranking 2nd in 2-point defense at 40.9%.
Good But Not Good Enough?
We respect the fact that Kenpom still ranks the Spartans 17th with just a 9-6 record. After all, this is a team ranked 25th in offensive efficiency and 23rd in defensive efficiency. The record is a direct result of facing a difficult schedule that has included two Top 10 teams during non-conference play in Arizona and Duke.
The issue here is that they are facing another Top 10 tonight in a true road game. While Michigan State is good enough to beat up on lesser teams, their components, while still very good, simply lag behind Illinois in just about every way. Furthermore, Illinois is the team that will probably get more second chances here. They currently rank 14th in offensive rebounding against 108th for Sparty.
The Pick
So, while we respect Michigan State overall, this simply looks like too cheap of a line for Illinois at home while ranking better on both ends. Thus, we are laying the small spot.
Predicted Score: Illinois 80 – Michigan State 71
NCAAB Pick: Illinois -3 (-105) at Heritage Sports
Idaho State Bengals vs. Portland State Vikings
Thursday, January 11, 2024 – 10:00 PM ET at Viking Pavilion
This rather ugly matchup in the Big Sky Conference will probably be mostly ignored by casual bettors. However, that ugliness is why we cannot justify Portland State being favored by this much. We are taking the points with Idaho State.
Very Deceptive Record
Sure, the Vikings have somehow managed to go 10-5. But this is still a team ranked 204th on Kenpom that ranks poorly on both ends. They have beaten three sub-level teams with none of the seven Division I wins coming against a team ranked higher than 170th. Furthermore, they are coming off a 16-point loss to 272nd-ranked UMKC.
Portland State is 227th in offensive efficiency and 306th in eFG%, as well as 182nd in defensive efficiency and 274th in eFG% allowed. And if that is not bad enough, they are also 231st in free throw shooting. Does that sound like the profile of a consensus 7.5 to 8-point favorite? We do not think so, regardless of the opponent.
At Least They Can Shoot 2s
Do not get us wrong. Idaho State is also a bad basketball team. However, the point is that despite being 5-10, the Bengals are not considerably worse than the Vikings in any area. Plus, they are actually above average in eFG% offensively at 51.3% against the national average of 50.1%.
That is because, believe it or not, Idaho State is 48th in the country in 2-point shooting at 54.4%. Their 2-point shooting is the only “green” Kenpom component for either team on either side of the ball. Granted the Bengals are 327th in eFG% allowed defensively, but that becomes less concerning against a terrible Portland State offense.
So, this is a line that may very well be skewed by Portland State having 10 wins. But, with their metrics not supporting the record and Idaho State’s 2-point shooting being the best component for either team, tale the points with the Bengals.
Predicted Score: Portland State 68 – Idaho State 65
NCAAB Pick: Idaho State +8 (-115) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
Arizona State Sun Devils vs. Washington Huskies
Thursday, January 11, 2024 – 11:00 PM ET at Alaska Airlines Arena
In a Pac-12 matchup of two teams on opposite ends of the luck scale, we are betting unlucky Washington as home favorites over a lucky Arizona State team.
No Offense
Arizona State is 10-5 overall and a perfect 4-0 in Pac-12 play. Yet they are ranked 101st overall on Kenpom. How can that be, you ask? Well for starters, they trailed by double-digit in each of their two conference road wins before rallying to win, including trailing the entire game at Stanford before winning at the buzzer.
Normally that resiliency would be a good thing, except that the Sun Devils grade out terribly offensively, making those big comebacks and 4-0 conference mark almost inexplicable. ASU ranks 203rd in offensive efficiency, 257th in eFG%, 229th in 2-point shooting, and 262nd in 3-point shooting. To call their perfect conference record and 10-5 overall mark “lucky” sounds like an understatement.
Deserve Better
And then there is Washington. They sit at 9-6 overall and just 1-3 in the conference despite ranking 49th in offensive efficiency at 113.5 points per 100 possessions. They also have an above-average 84th in defensive efficiency at 100.4 points per 100 possessions against a national average of 105.0.
Remember, the Huskies beat two Top 50 Kenpom teams: #23 Gonzaga and #41 Xavier during non-conference play. They remain ranked 56th despite the record, nearly 50 spots higher than Arizona State. This squad is obviously better than a 9-6 team and this now becomes a huge game for Washington in the conference standings.
The Pick
Teams “needing to win” are not always the best bets, but in this case, the Huskies truly look like the better team on paper. Add in home-court advantage and we look for the luck levels for both teams to begin correcting with a big Washington win.
Predicted Score: Washington 81 – Arizona State 69
NCAAB Pick: Washington -7 (-110) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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