Top NCAAB Pick: NC State -3.5 (-109) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
There are 30 games on the main NCAA Basketball board Tuesday full of appealing conference matchups. We are here with our three best bets of the evening, with home-court advantage playing a big role in all three wagers.
These are value-based bets based on our proprietary model, so not all the plays will involve major conferences. We have one such mid-major best bet tonight in a huge Mountain West Conference matchup, while our other two plays are major battles from the Big 12 and ACC.
Keep reading to see where the value is being offered from sportsbooks on the games.
Oklahoma Sooners vs. Kansas State Wildcats
Tuesday, January 30, 2024 – 08:00 PM ET at Bramlage Coliseum
We begin with a Big 12 matchup, where we are betting on the Kansas State defense to stifle Oklahoma offensively en route to a covering home win.
Great Defense
The Wildcats come in at 14-6 overall and 4-3 in Big 12 play.
However, they have been much better at home. In fact, they rank 30th on Kenpom in Home Court Advantage at +3.8 points. As a result, they are 10-1 at home with an average margin of +9.9 points, including a big win over a Baylor team ranked 16th on Kenpom earlier this month.
Kansas State is above average offensively at 108.4 points per 100 possessions (national average 106.0), but their strength is defense, especially in Big 12 play. The Wildcats are 22nd in efficiency and 26th in eFG% allowed overall.
They have been even better in conference games, leading in eFG% allowed and 3-point defense (27.7%), while ranking third in 2-point defense (44.6%).
Offense Slowed Inside Conference
Oklahoma is 15-5 overall.
That is deceptive as four of those five losses have come inside the conference with a losing 3-4 mark. It appears they are now being exposed after starting 12-1 against a weak non-conference slate ranked 315th on Kenpom. Furthermore, Oklahoma has won just one road game, and that was a narrow 69-65 escape at Cincinnati.
While the Sooners rank 54th in offensive efficiency, that too must be taken with a grain of salt given the weak non-conference schedule. They have indeed regreased in Big 12 play, ranking just eighth in the conference at a below-average 105.0 points per 100 possessions.
We expect those conference struggles to continue against the stout Kansa State defense.
The Pick
With Oklahoma seemingly overrated given their performance against better teams, and Kansas State better defensively and great at home, lay the small spot with the Wildcats.
Predicted Score: Kansas State 72 – Oklahoma 64
NCAAB Pick: Kansas State -3 (-110) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
San Diego State Aztecs vs. Colorado State Rams
Tuesday, January 30, 2024 – 09:00 PM ET at Moby Arena
In one of the bigger Mountain West Conference games of the season, we are betting on Colorado State as tiny home favorites over San Diego State.
Home Sweet Home
We get that the Rams are a disappointing 3-4 in conference play after going 12-1 against a very good non-conference schedule ranked 49th on Kenpom. But to be fair, all four conference losses have come on the road and Colorado State still owns seven wins over Top 100 teams. That includes two Top 20 wins over Creighton and New Mexico.
The Rams are 27th in the country in offensive efficiency and they have been at their best here at home. Colorado State is averaging a potent 84.8 points when playing in Fort Collins with an average winning margin of +15.3 points. Furthermore, the Rams have been good on the other end also, ranking 78th in defensive efficiency.
Not Enough Firepower?
Make no mistake: we have a lot of respect for San Diego State.
The team reached the NCAA Tournament Championship Game last season and currently ranks 21st on Kenpom. The Aztecs play hard-nosed defense ranking 18th in efficiency and 52nd in eFG% allowed.
However, the softest spot on the Aztecs’ defense is defending 2-pointers at 127th in the county. That makes for a rather brutal matchup against a Colorado State offense ranked 10th nationally in 2-point shooting at 57.8%. And when San Diego State allows more points than usual, they become vulnerable ranking 165th offensively in eFG% at an ordinary 50.7% (national average 50.3%).
The Pick
Colorado State has been almost unstoppable offensively at home, and the Rams have the inside advantage against an otherwise good San Diego State defense.
Look for that advantage and the Aztecs’ lack of explosiveness to result in a Rams-covering win.
Predicted Score: Colorado State 77 – San Diego State 70
NCAAB Pick: Colorado State -2 (-110) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
Miami (FL) Hurricanes vs. North Carolina State Wolfpack
Tuesday, January 30, 2024 – 09:00 PM ET at PNC Arena
We conclude with a big ACC matchup between two teams tied in the conference standings at 5-4. We are giving the modest points at home with NC State hosting the Miami Hurricanes.
Playing in Raleigh Helps
The Wolfpack come in on a 3-game losing streak to drop to 13-7 overall.
However, they are happy to return home after two toad losses at Virginia (in overtime) and Syracuse, as NC State is 9-2 here in Raleigh. The Wolfpack are averaging 79.4 PPG at PNC Arena while winning by an average of +13.3 points.
Perhaps the key to victory for NC State here though will be the turnover battle, where they are very good on both ends. The Wolfpack rank 19th in the country in offensive turnover percentage at just 14.2% while also ranking 55th defensively at 19.9%. The national average for turnovers is 17.5%, putting both figures in perspective.
Rely on Perimeter Shooting
The Hurricanes are 14-6 and have won two straight.
However, this is a team that often relies too much on perimeter shooting. This is evidenced by ranking a dismal 332nd in FTA/FGA percentage, the trait of a team that does not draw many fouls driving to the basket. And while the Canes are 21st in the country in FG% at 48.8% overall, that figure drops noticeably to 46.2% on the road.
Miami is also exactly at the aforementioned national turnover percentage average of 17.5% both offensively and defensively. Thus they figure to be on the losing end of the turnover battle on both ends, which hurts more on the road where the Canes have not shot the ball as well as at home.
The Pick
So, we are looking for a correction to the opposite streaks these teams are on, with NC State getting a much-needed and safe home win to snap their 3-game skid.
Predicted Score: NC State 79 – Miami-FL 70
NCAAB Pick: NC State -3.5 (-109) at Heritage Sports
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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