College Football Bowl Best Bets for December 21-27: Orange to Squeeze Cougars Early
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LT Profits
- December 27, 2024
After finishing the regular season strong going 18-11-1, 62.1% over the last 10 weeks, we have begun the College Football Bowl Season 2-0 with our third bowl pick last week pending today, December 20th.
We now return with three more plays for the second week of bowls that we feel all have betting value based mostly on our proprietary model at the current NCAAF odds. Our selections include a bet in one of the College Football Playoff games tomorrow night.
If you’re looking for more value picks, make sure to take a look at our YouTube channel for more college football betting advice, featuring Pittsburgh vs. Toledo and Rutgers vs. Kansas State.
Syracuse Orange vs. Washington State Cougars
Friday, December 27, 2024 – 08:00 PM ET at Snapdragon Stadium
From a transfer portal and departed coaches’ perspective, the edge for Syracuse over Washington State in the Holiday Bowl next Friday may be the biggest for any team this entire bowl season. But with this game line now up to two touchdowns, we are backing the Orange for the First Half at a single-digit number.
Is Anybody Around?
We could go on and on about the Washington State numbers on both offense and defense this season, but that would be nothing but noise considering their portal and coaching situations. The Cougars were one of only two remaining teams in the Pac-12 for football, and apparently, players and coaches alike could not wait to jump ship despite a good 8-4 record.
Quarterback John Mateer entered the transfer portal after a huge breakout season where he passed for 3139 yards with 29 touchdown passes against seven interceptions. Joining him in the portal from the offense are running back Wayshawn Parker, wide receiver Kris Hutson and starting tackle Ethan O’Connor. And on the other side of the football, five defensive starters are also in the portal including both cornerbacks.
As for coaches that have left in the few weeks since the end of the season, the Cougars are now without their head coach, offensive coordinator, defensive coordinator, quarterbacks coach and running backs coach!
“We Don’t Opt Out Around Here”
Conversely, Syracuse head coach Fran Brown proudly proclaimed, “We don’t opt out around here”, and that is 99.9% true with only cornerback Jayden Bellamy entering the portal. Brown expects everyone else to play, including quarterback Kyle McCord, who guided the Orange to the best passing attack in the country at 363.1 yards per game.
Granted, Syracuse did not face much this season, and the best passing defense they faced in Pittsburgh intercepted McCord five times. But that becomes moot given all that is going on with the Cougars, and McCord is undoubtedly looking forward to attacking Wazzou’s two backup cornerbacks.
Even with Syracuse playing everyone and Washington State playing practically nobody, we are never comfortable laying two touchdowns with the late backdoor cover always open. However, we do expect the Orange to build a big lead before cruising late, so we are laying the more manageable spread in the First Half with Syracuse in the Holiday Bowl.
Predicted Score: Syracuse 21 – Washington State 6 (Halftime)
NCAAF Pick: First Half Syracuse -7.5 (-119) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Arkansas State Red Wolves vs. Bowling Green Falcons
Thursday, December 26, 2024 – 09:00 PM ET at Hancock Whitney Stadium
Arkansas State was one of if not THE luckiest teams in the nation this season. We are betting on a Bowling Green team presumably at full strength to roll to an easy victory in the 68 Ventures Bowl on Thursday.
Dead Last in Key Metrics
Arkansas State somehow finished 7-5 this year despite finishing 98th in the country in scoring at 24.8 points per game and 112th in points allowed at 32.2 PPG for a negative average differential of -7.4 points! And they probably have the worst defense of any bowl team, ranking 129th in total defense surrendering 461.6 yards per game, and 131st in yards per play allowed at 6.9.
Furthermore, as horrible as those numbers are, the defense looks even worse when digging into the metrics. You see, the Red Wolves ranked dead last out of 134 FBS teams in both Explosive Plays Allowed and Early Down Success Rate. That makes for a terrible matchup against a Bowling Green offense ranked in the Top 15 in Rush Explosive Rate.
Everybody Plays
The latest reports out of Bowling Green are that all starters are playing in this game. That includes running back Terion Stewart, who keyed the Rush Explosive Rate mentioned earlier, and Harold Fannin Jr., who some consider the best tight end in the country. Fannin is returning after getting injured late in the year.
And unlike Arkansas State, Bowling Green actually plays defense. The Falcons ranked 32nd in total defense allowing 331.1 yards per game and a decent 48th in yards per play allowed at 5.7. Granted they did not face many powerful offenses in the MAC, but the Red Wolves are not daunting offensively either averaging only 385.9 yards per game and 5.3 yards per play.
Based on surface stats alone, Arkansas State did not deserve a winning record this season, let alone a bowl appearance. And their metrics only confirmed that further. We are giving the points at less than a touchdown with Bowling Green in this spot.
Predicted Score: Bowling Green 35 – Arkansas State 20
NCAAF Pick: Bowling Green -7 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
Tennessee Volunteers vs. Ohio State Buckeyes
Saturday, December 21, 2024 – 08:00 PM ET at Ohio Stadium
As the 8-seed vs. 9-seed matchup, many consider this the best first-round matchup of the Playoff and Tennessee is a popular upset pick. We are not of that camp, however, as in a matchup of two elite defenses, we see a superior Ohio State offense leading the Buckeyes to a covering win.
Early Down Passing
The reason Ohio State is playing in this game instead of getting a bye is their shocking 13-10 home loss to Michigan to end the season. The defense did its part as usual, but the offense had its worst game of the season mainly due to a run-heavy approach behind a banged-up offensive line.
Well, the Buckeyes have had three weeks to work on their blocking schemes and we expect offensive coordinator Chip Kelly to have a more aggressive game plan here with more early-down passing. After all, the Ohio State receiving corps is the best offensive aspect for either team.
And more passing is the perfect way to attack the Tennessee defense. Yes, the Volunteers finished fourth in the country in total defense and eighth in rushing defense. However, they were more vulnerable against the pass, ranking outside the Top 75 in Explosive Pass Rate and they are dealing with some injuries at the linebacker position and in the secondary.
Beat Up of Weak Defenses
Now, the Tennessee offense looks good on paper ranking eighth in total offense at 463.5 yards per game. However, they benefitted from an easier-than-usual schedule for an SEC team, with the three best defenses they faced being Georgia, Florida and maybe Alabama even in a down year. The Vols barely broke 400 yards (408) against Alabama but managed only 313 yards against Florida and 319 against Georgia.
Well, Ohio State led the country in total defense and in scoring defense (10.9 points per game), and no team except #1 Oregon has been able to move the ball against them. We do not quite trust Tennessee quarterback Nico Iamaleava as he has yet to prove himself against a quality defense while accumulating nice stats against bottom-feeders.
The bottom line here is that Ohio State legitimately has the best defense in the nation, and they have the playmakers at wide receiver to exploit a mediocre Tennessee secondary. Thus, we are betting on the Buckeyes as home favorite to advance to the quarterfinals.
Predicted Score: Ohio State 28 – Tennessee 16
NCAAF Pick: Ohio State -7 (-115) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
