College Football Bowl Best Bets for December 28: Eagles to Fly Past Cornhuskers
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LT Profits
- December 27, 2024
NCAAF Pick: Boston College +4.5 (-110) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
After finishing the regular season 18-11-1, 62.1% over the last 10 weeks, we have begun the College Football Bowl Season at a nice 4-1 with our third bowl pick from last week pending tonight, December 27th.
We now return with three more plays for this week of bowls that we feel all have betting value based mostly on our proprietary model at the current NCAAF odds. And as it turns out, all three plays start and end early as all our action goes tomorrow afternoon!
Boston College Eagles vs. Nebraska Cornhuskers
Saturday, December 28, 2024 – 12:00 PM ET at Yankee Stadium
We feel the wrong team may be favored in the Pinstripe Bowl at Yankee Stadium on Saturday. We are taking the points with Boston College getting more than a field goal while calling for an upset of Nebraska.
QB Change Mattered
Boston College finished strong by covering their last five games ATS, and more importantly, they won three of their last four outright after changing quarterbacks to finish 7-5. Grayson James took over after a narrow 31-27 home loss to Louisville in a game BC could have won if not for incumbent Thomas Castellanos completing less than half his passes (13-for-28) for only 164 yards.
The only loss for the Eagles with James under center was 38-28 to an SMU team that made the College Football Playoff. James was more aggressive downfield than Castellanos, and it paid off with twice as many Big Time Throws as Turnover Worthy Passes per PFF, better supporting a solid running game that averaged 176.0 rushing yards.
That more balanced attack can take advantage of a Nebraska defense that lost seven players to the transfer portal. Conversely, the Boston College offense lost only Castellanos, who lost his job anyway, and wide receiver Jerand Bradley, who played only 170 snaps, to the portal.
Worse Record
Nebraska is favored despite coming in with the worse record at 6-6. Yes, we get the Cornhuskers played the tougher schedule playing the Big Ten, but nonetheless, this team has gone 1-5 since early October with the lone win coming over a Wisconsin club that finished with a 5-7 record.
The biggest news from Lincoln recently is freshman quarterback Dylan Raiola did not enter the transfer portal as was heavily rumored. Then again, we are not particularly high on him anyway after averaging only 6.0 yards per attempt with almost as many interceptions (10) as touchdown passes (12). And even the Huskers running game ranked only 93rd nationally at 131.5 yards per game.
The strength of this team was the defense, but now that unit is watered down due to the portal.
With all due respect to the Big Ten, we do not think playing in that conference is enough for Nebraska to be favored in this game. We are calling for Boston College to win outright, but with this line now over a field goal, our official bet is taking the points with BC.
Predicted Score: Boston College 27 – Nebraska 19
NCAAF Pick: Boston College +4.5 (-110) at Bookmaker
Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns vs. TCU Horned Frogs
Saturday, December 28, 2024 – 02:15 PM ET at University Stadium (NM)
We do not expect much defense to be played in the New Mexico Bowl on Saturday, so we are betting on the Over when the Horned Frogs of TCU takes on the UL Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns.
Proven Offense vs. Better
TCU had some lofty aspirations in the Big 12 prior to this season, but those dreams were quickly squashed by a 3-3 start. To their credit though, the Horned Frogs went 5-1over the second half of the season to finish 8-4 when they just as easily could have folded their tents. We see that as a sign that they will come to play here even in a lesser bowl than they had hoped to be in.
This is a team that finished 30th in the country in total offense and seventh in the land in passing offense at 317.6 yards per game. They were led by quarterback Josh Hoover, who passed for 3697 yards and 23 touchdowns while completing 66.7 percent of his passes. More impressively, he did not take the safe route in amassing that high percentage as he averaged 8.0 yards per attempt.
After having that offensive success against a Big 12 schedule, we think TCU can name the score here against a Sun Belt Conference defense, provided they have the incentive to do so.
Wooldridge is Back
Louisiana is welcoming back starting quarterback Ben Wooldridge for this bowl game after he was injured earlier in the year. That is welcome news considering his backup Chandler Fields was injured in the Sun Belt Championship Game, which would have left a freshman third-stringer as the only remaining option. And it is not as if the Cajuns are rushing Wooldridge back either, as this time frame lined up with his expected return anyway.
Besides the upgrade at QB, Lafeyette averaged 171.1 rushing yards per game this season. Yes, that was against softer competition than TCU faced, but ULL still ranked 22nd in the nation in Run Explosive Rate. That should still translate relatively well against a TCU team ranked 90th in rushing defense allowing 164.3 yards per game on the ground.
Thus, we do not think the Louisiana offense will be totally shut down here even with the jump in class. When adding in our belief that TCU will come to play, we are backing the Over here in New Mexico.
Predicted Score: TCU 41 – Louisiana 27
NCAAF Pick: Over 58.5 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Iowa State Cyclones vs. Miami Hurricanes
Saturday, December 28, 2024 – 03:30 PM ET at Camping World Stadium
We expect both offenses to be successful in the Pop Tarts Bowl in Orlando on Saturday. This has us backing the Over when Miami-Florida takes on Iowa State.
Ward and Martinez Probable
The most important news surrounding this game is Miami quarterback Cam Ward is expected to play despite being a potential high draft pick in the NFL Draft. The senior passed for over 4000 yards this season with a whopping 36 touchdown passes against only seven interceptions.
But while the Ward story has gotten the most buzz, he is not the only Canes potential opt-out deciding to play as the same is true for leading rusher Damien Martinez, who averaged 5.9 yards per carry. That duo helped propel Miami to lead the country in total offense this season at 538.2 yards per game, as well as leading in overall yards per play at 7.6.
Granted, Iowa State ranked fourth in passing defense, but the Cyclones did not face any quarterbacks that were at Ward’s level. Furthermore, ISU was only 102nd in rushing defense, so Martinez should have a field day on the ground, which in turn would open passing lanes for Ward.
Opportunity for Becht Too
And let us not forget about the Iowa State offense either, as quarterback Rocco Becht had his second straight 3000-yard passing season. and he is expected to have both of his 1000-yard receivers in Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel available. Both Noel and coach Matt Campbell echoed that they expect all the team’s seniors to play in this bowl.
Granted, the vaunted passing attack stumbled late with Becht held under 300 passing yards in the last four games. However, he now gets a chance at redemption against a Miami secondary that probably cost the Hurricanes a spot in the College Football Playoff. That unit struggled in Coverage all season and allowed 380 passing yards in a season-ending 42-38 upset loss to Syracuse.
This could be another high-scoring affair, although seeing a combined 80 points again seems unlikely. However, our projected total in the mid-60s is enough for us to bet the Over in this spot.
Predicted Score: Miami Florida 38 – Iowa State 27
NCAAF Pick: Over 56.5 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
