College Football Bowl Best Bets: Broncos to Ride to Cover vs. Jaguars
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LT Profits
- December 13, 2024
Top NCAAF Pick: Western Michigan +9 (-112) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
After going a nice 18-11-1, 62.1% over the last 10 weeks, we have now reached Bowl Season, the most exciting time of the year in College Football.
We are here with three plays for the first week of bowls that we feel all have betting value based mostly on our proprietary model at the current NCAAF odds. And you do not need to wait long to get into the action with our first two plays coming in the first two bowl games of the year!
And if you’re looking for more value picks, make sure to take a look at our YouTube channel, where our expert broke down two more bowls: the Wasabi Fenway Bowl and the Pop-Tarts Bowl.
Salute to Veterans Bowl
South Alabama Jaguars vs. Western Michigan Broncos
Saturday, December 14, 2024 – 09:00 PM ET at Cramton Bowl
We are jumping into Bowl Season with a play in the very first one tomorrow! We are backing the Broncos of Western Michigan to stay inside the spread facing South Alabama in the Crampton Bowl.
Top Running Back Gone
The dreaded transfer portal is having an immediate impact this season, affecting this first bowl game. On the South Alabama offensive side, leading rusher Fluff Bothwell, who averaged a whopping 7.6 yards per rush and scored 13 touchdowns this season, has entered the portal. And on defense, starting cornerback Jordan Scruggs has done the same.
And those may not be the only key pieces missing for the Jaguars, as quarterback Gio Lopez was injured late in the regular season finale and was seen with crutches later. That was two weeks ago though and Lopez is currently considered questionable. If he cannot go, backup Bishop Davenport completed 60% of his passes (33-for-55) but they were mostly conservative throws as he averaged a mere 5.9 yards per attempt.
On paper, South Alabama finished 25th nationally in total offense at 435.2 yards per game, but that loses relevance with Bothwell gone and Lopez either out or slowed by his leg injury.
Triple Threat Backfield
Western Michigan became bowl-eligible by winning their season finale, and they are now looking to ride that momentum in this early bowl game. This team is very run-oriented, ranking 36th nationally in rushing offense, and they did this with great balance in the backfield with three different running backs each with over 100 carries and over 500 yards.
And while quarterback Hayden Wolff is not usually asked to do much, he still passed for 2212 yards with 17 touchdown passes while averaging 7.9 yards per attempt. He has shown he is not afraid to attack downfield when given the opportunity, and he may do so a bit more than usual here with Scruggs now departed from the Jaguars’ secondary.
The only reason we are not calling for an outright upset here is the Broncos ranking 101st in total defense allowing 404.2 yards per game. Still, that unit may exceed expectations with the South Alabama offense being shorthanded.
In the end, that lacking defense may allow the Jaguars to win the game on the field, but we do not think it will be easy. We are taking the points with Western Michigan receiving over a touchdown.
Predicted Score: South Alabama 30 – Western Michigan 28
NCAAF Pick: Western Michigan +9 (-112) at Bookmaker
Frisco Bowl
Memphis Tigers vs. West Virginia Mountaineers
Tuesday, December 17, 2024 – 09:00 PM ET at Toyota Stadium
In another early bowl game on Tuesday, December 17th, we are expecting both offenses to succeed. Therefore, we are betting on the Over when Memphis faces West Virginia in the Frisco Bowl in Texas.
Passing Success vs. Poor Secondary
This will be the final college game for Memphis senior quarterback Seth Henigan, the program’s all-time leading passer at 13,972 yards and one of only three current FBS quarterbacks with over 100 passing touchdowns. He guided the Tigers to the 24th-ranked passing offense this season at 268.6 yards per game and is receiving a great going-away present facing one of the worst pass defenses in the nation.
West Virginia finished the regular year ranked 125 in passing defense allowing 268.9 yards per game. But they were even worse metrically, ranking 128th in net points per drive, 127th in dropback success rate and 131st out of 134 teams in Pass Cover Rating per PFF. And if that is not enough, they lost perhaps their best defensive player linebacker, Josiah Trotter, to the transfer portal.
Henigan should put up points himself against that porous Mountaineers’ secondary, and he has the support of a running game that averages 173.6 yards per game on 5.0 yards per carry.
Offensive Coordinator is Interim Coach
West Virginia fired head coach Neal Brown after going 6-6, with offensive coordinator Chad Scott serving as interim coach Tuesday. We do not see that as an issue for the offense, as that side of the ball was just fine with the team’s troubles stemming from the defense. Scott may even add a few more wrinkles as a head man to a unit he coordinated all season.
The Mountaineers suffered no losses to the portal as of now from an offense that finished 59th in total offense at 395.7 yards per game and 26th in rushing with 195.2 of those yards coming on the ground. One concern is quarterback Garrett Greene leaving the season finale early with a shoulder injury. That concern gets alleviated, however, by backup Nicco Marchiol being the better pure passer, averaging 8.0 yards per attempt while lacking Greene’s mobility.
Thus, we expect West Virginia to put up points regardless of who is under center, while also seeing Memphis having an easy time against the poor WVU defense in Henigan’s last game. This has us backing the Over in Frisco.
Predicted Score: Memphis 37 – West Virginia 31
NCAAF Pick: Over 58.5 (-110) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
Cure Bowl
Ohio Bobcats vs. Jacksonville State Gamecocks
Friday, December 20, 2024 – 12:00 PM ET at Camping World Stadium
We are expecting the scoreboard operator to be kept busy in the Cure Bowl from New Orleans on Friday, December 20th. We are supporting the Over with Jacksonville State taking on Ohio.
Hot Offense Down Stretch
Jacksonville State’s biggest defections to the transfer portal right now are all on defense, where they lost three starters in safety Zechariah Poyser, linebacker Reginald Hughes and cornerback Jabari Mack. And of course, it appears head coach Rich Rodriguez has already been poached to take over as the coach of West Virginia.
Nonetheless, the offense remains intact, the same offense that finished the season ranked 19th in total offense with 444.4 yards per game and 12th in scoring at 36.7 points per contest. The Gamecocks were unstoppable down the stretch while winning four of their last five games to finish 9-4. Their season culminated with a 52-12 blowout of Western Kentucky in the Conference USA Championship Game while racking up 562 total yards!
Also Average Nearly 400 Yards
Ohio is currently the only bowl team without a single player in the portal, although they lost their coach Tim Albin, who left to take the coaching job at Charlotte. We do not think the offense will suffer much, however, especially with offensive coordinator Brian Smith serving as interim coach for this bowl.
And remember that Ohio averaged nearly 400 yards per game themselves (398.5), primarily due to a powerful rushing attack ranked 13th in the land at 211.6 yards per game. That makes this a favorable matchup against a Jacksonville State defense ranked 95th in rushing defense allowing 170.2 yards per game. Also, let us not forget the three departed starters mentioned earlier for the Gamecocks on that side of the ball.
Ohio is currently favored in this game by a consensus of 3 points, but while we are predicting a small upset, we are much more confident in the total in this spot. Thus, our official bet is on the Over here.
Predicted Score: Jacksonville State 34 – Ohio 28
NCAAF Pick: Over 54 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
