College Football Bowl Games Best Bets for January 2-4: Liberty’s Defense Wins the Day
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Rainman M.
- December 26, 2024
Top NCAAF Pick: Liberty ML (+110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
The top sportsbooks have released their betting odds for the college football bowl season.
Three games, from January 2 to January 4, interest me as worth investing in: Duke vs. Ole Miss, Minnesota vs. Virginia Tech, and Liberty vs. Buffalo. Let’s take a look.
Gator Bowl:
Duke Blue Devils vs. Ole Miss Rebels
Thursday, January 02, 2025 – 07:30 PM ET at EverBank Stadium
Duke’s Quarterback Situation
With Duke’s starting quarterback heading to Auburn, Henry Belin IV will start in this game. In his career, Belin IV has completed 57.6 percent of his 33 passes. This might not seem so terrible, but he attempted 14 of those passes against FCS opponents.
Last year, he was a combined 5-for-18 against Florida State and NC State. This year, he is 1-for-1 with a seven-yard completion.
While he has not proven to be dangerous as a runner, he has carried the ball five times this year, which suggests an inclination to run that likely derives strength from his apparent lack of confidence as a passer.
Ole Miss vs. Mobile Quarterbacks
Given Belin IV’s inclination to run, it is important to know whether we can trust Ole Miss’ defense against mobile quarterbacks.
One reason why the Rebels own the fourth-best scoring defense is that they are solid against all ball carriers — they own the second-best rush defense.
They stymied Oklahoma’s Jackson Arnold, for example, when they held the Sooners to 14 points and, with the exception of a single big run, likewise contained South Carolina’s quarterback when they held the Gamecocks to three points.
Evidently, their ability to limit opposing mobile quarterbacks sustains their ability to secure a low-scoring output from their opponent.
Ole Miss’ Potential Opt-Out That Does Not Matter Much
Wide receiver Tre Harris might not play in this game. He is dealing with a groin injury and is heading to the NFL. His absence would provide a boost to our “under” play because he is quarterback Jaxson Dart’s favorite weapon. He has more than 200 yards and at least eleven more receptions than any of his teammates.
But it would not matter much if he does play, because of Duke’s solidness on defense. The Blue Devils have proven their ability to contain opposing mobile quarterbacks. For example, they did a great job of limiting both the passing efficiency and the rushing production of North Carolina’s starting quarterback.
Against North Carolina, they also displayed the prowess of their run defense when they held Omarion Hampton, North Carolina’s star running back who has 1,660 rushing yards and 5.9 YPC, to 3.6 YPC.
Potential Advantage
They might have an easier test than Hampton if Ole Miss’ starting running back Henry Parrish Jr. remains banged up with a serious leg injury that has kept him from playing since November 2. If he does play, they are still able to rely on being solid in the trenches.
Both Duke and Ole Miss played Wake Forest and kept the Demon Deacons’ ground game in check, limiting it to 2.6 and 1.4 YPC, respectively, because both teams are strong in the trenches.
The Pick
The respective defenses of Duke and Ole Miss have a terrific outlook in this game against the mobile quarterback that they will face.
Oddsmakers’ high total shows great respect for Ole Miss’ quarterback, but Dart would have to play out of his mind for the “over” to have a chance. While Dart is, as we all know, a great quarterback, Duke especially with its backup quarterback lacks the personnel to push Dart.
This game will feel like it’s done in the third quarter where I foresee Ole Miss leading with a score of around 21-3. As Ole Miss relaxes with a solid lead, the spread will end up close, but this game will coast to a clear “under.”
NCAAF Pick: Under 52 (-105) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Duke’s Mayo Bowl:
Minnesota Golden Gophers vs. Virginia Tech Hokies
Friday, January 03, 2024 – 07:30 PM ET at Bank of America Stadium
PJ Fleck Trend
With PJ Fleck coaching the Golden Gophers in a bowl game, you can feel sure that they will win. As their head coach, Fleck is 5-0 in bowl games, and four of those wins came by at least seven points.
Two of those wins came against ACC foes: in 2018, Minnesota beat Georgia Tech 34-10. In 2022, Minnesota beat Syracuse 28-20.
Given this trend, the Minnesota moneyline also makes for a fantastic parlay partner with my other favorite bowl game bets.
Max Brosmer
The best argument for Virginia Tech is that many of Minnesota’s wins were rather close and low-scoring. But this argument does not work, because the Golden Gophers have blown out opponents by achieving high scoring totals.
As handicappers, we have to ask what enabled Minnesota to achieve those blowouts and whether we should accordingly expect the Golden Gophers to blow out Virginia Tech. Specifically, Minnesota beat Rhode Island 48-0 and defeated Maryland 48-23. In both of those games, quarterback Max Brosmer thrived.
Brosmer is an efficient and productive quarterback, with 17 touchdowns to five interceptions on the season, because, as you can see in his video footage, he possesses both a strong arm and excellent accuracy.
Minnesota is at its best when Brosmer thrives. Brosmer has a great outlook in this game against a Virginia Tech defense that, already statistically mediocre against the pass, will miss its departed defensive coordinator and two starting cornerbacks.
The Hokies defense was especially weak against the pass away from where, where its passer rating allowed was almost 40 points higher than it was from home. This depleted group, away from their vibrant home venue, has a horrendous outlook in this game.
The Pick
PJ Fleck will continue thriving in bowl games, and the way in which his Gophers will win big in this game feels predictable.
Minnesota is at its best when Brosmer thrives, which he’ll do against Virginia Tech’s already vulnerable and now also depleted defense.
The Hokies will likely be without their starting quarterback, so they’ll struggle to score against Minnesota’s 16th-ranked scoring defense. Whereas the Hokies will struggle to attain a double-digit point total, Minnesota’s offense will cruise to 30 points.
NCAAF Pick: Minnesota -6.5 (-115) at BetOnline
Bahamas Bowl:
Liberty Flames vs. Buffalo Bulls
Saturday, January 04, 2025 – 11:00 AM ET at Thomas A. Robinson National Stadium
The Wrong Team Is Favored
Buffalo is favored in this matchup because Liberty’s collection of departures creates a negative public perception of its outlook for this game.
But the wrong team is favored primarily because Liberty has the far superior defense — Liberty’s defense will remain largely intact for this game.
Liberty’s scoring defense ranks 46 spots ahead of Buffalo’s. The Flames also rank 58 spots higher in total defense.
Liberty’s Run Defense
Specifically, Liberty’s ability to stop the run is significant in this game. Buffalo has an inefficient quarterback and a run-heavy offense.
The Bulls rank 31st in run-play percentage. Liberty’s run defense finished out especially the end of its regular season with success, holding its last opponent, Sam Houston, to 1.2 YPC below its season average. Joseph Carter, named the state of Virginia’s Linebacker of the Year, captains the defense.
The best argument for Buffalo will point to Liberty’s offensive opt-outs, but it’s Buffalo’s offense that will struggle the most in this game. Its ground game isn’t particularly efficient, as it ranks well in the bottom half in YPC. Led by Carter and unintimidated by Buffalo’s inefficient pass attack, the Flames will do a great job of inhibiting the Bulls from sustaining drives.
Outlook for Liberty’s Offense
Liberty will be more comfortable on offense than Buffalo also because of the latter’s defensive deficiencies. The Bulls are especially weak against the pass. They rank 120th in pass defense.
For Liberty, Ryan Burger will start at quarterback. A three-star transfer from App State, he’s been efficient when he’s played. Burger also enjoys depth at wide receiver and especially running back, which will provide him with a lot of support. While Burger has already shown promise when he’s been asked to step in during a game, he’ll be even better with all of this preparation time against such a poor defense.
The Pick
Liberty’s defense will secure a win for this underdog team, whose departures on offense create a false perception of its ability to put up points against Buffalo.
NCAAF Pick: Liberty ML (+110) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
