College Football Championship Week Best Bets: Cyclones Blow Past Sun Devils in Arlington
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LT Profits
- December 6, 2024
Top NCAAF Pick: Iowa State +2 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
After going a nice 17-9-1 over the last nine weeks at the top-rated sportsbooks, we have now reached Championship Week of the 2024 College Football season. And while it is Friday, that does not mean that there is still no value to be found for Saturday’s big games.
We are here with three plays we feel all have betting value based mostly on our proprietary model at the current NCAAF odds. All three of our plays for the Championship Games are underdog plays that we feel could win outright, although we are taking the points on each occasion.
Iowa State Cyclones vs. Arizona State Sun Devils Odds
Saturday, December 07, 2024 – 12:00 PM ET at AT&T Stadium
A key injury has changed the complexion of the Big 12 Championship Game in Arlington, TX. We are now backing Iowa State to pull the mini-upset over Arizona State.
No Receiving Threats Now
Arizona State has been one of the biggest surprises in the country this season. Picked by many to finish last in their inaugural season in the Big 12, they went 10-2 to get to this title game coming in on a 5-game winning streak. However, they lost stud wide receiver Jordyn Tyson and his 1101 receiving yards this year to an arm injury last week requiring surgery.
Losing their biggest playmaker from an already thin receiving corpse puts the Sun Devils’ chances of advancing to the College Football Playoff with a win here in peril. ASU succeeded with a balanced offense this season with running back Cam Skattebo rushing for 1398 yards on 5.7 yards per carry. The loss of Tyson should make ASU more one-dimensional, allowing the Iowa State defense to sell out more against the run.
The Cyclones can afford to do that because they were an amazing third in the country in passing defense this season allowing only 156.9 yards per game. Thus, they can commit one or maybe even two more defenders to stop the run while still maintaining the ability to cover the now mediocre Arizona State receivers remaining.
Can Pass Way to Victory
Meanwhile, Iowa State also went 10-2 and got here by knocking of Kansas State 29-21 in the regular season finale last week. And the Cyclones won that contest despite quarterback Rocco Becht having his worst game of the year, completing just 13-of-35 passes for a season-low 137 yards.
We expect a bounce-back effort for Becht here after finishing with his second straight 3000-yard passing season. And he has a pair of 1000-yards receivers at his disposal in Jayden Higgins (1068 yards) and Jaylin Noel (1013). He also does not figure to be under much duress facing an ASU defense ranked 132nd out of 134 FBS teams in QB Pressures per PFF.
The Pick
The bottom line here is that with Tyson’s injury making Arizona State primarily a rushing offense, we think Iowa State will do a better job stopping that run than the Devils will do stopping the Cyclones’ strength, which is the pass.
Thus, we are taking the small points with ISU in a predicted upset.
Predicted Score: Iowa State 27 – Arizona State 21
NCAAF Pick: Iowa State +2 (-108) at Heritage Sports
Clemson Tigers vs. SMU Mustangs Odds
Saturday, December 07, 2024 – 08:01 PM ET at Bank of America Stadium
We are calling for an upset in the ACC Championship with a desperate Clemson team playing for its College Football Playoff life close to home in Charlotte against the upstarts from SMU. Our official bet though is taking the points with the Tigers.
Did Not Face Much
SMU had a terrific first season in the ACC, coming in at 11-1 while showing great balance, ranking 21st nationally in total offense and 28th in total defense. While that sounds great, they had a favorable schedule that did not include the Top ACC teams, with an overall SOS ranked 62nd per PFF.
Their defensive numbers are skewed by facing only two teams ranked in the top 30 in total offense, and we have questions surrounding quarterback Kevin Jennings. Not that Jennings was bad, but he probably should have done better than 19 touchdowns against seven interceptions given the soft schedule and all the time his offensive line afforded him.
The Mustangs allowed only 13 sacks, but they also did not face any defenses with two disrupters up front either like Clemson has in T.J. Parker and Peter Woods. That makes this the best defensive line SMU has faced all season by a wide margin.
Been There, Done That
Clemson is literally in a win-or-go-home spot here, whereas SMU can still make the Playoff with a loss. Then again, while the players have changed, Coach Dabo Swinney has been in many huge spots like this before, so we do think the pressure will be too much for the Tigers. On the flip side, this kind of spotlight is a whole new experience for SMU.
Intangibles aside, besides the Clemson defensive line pressuring the Mustangs like no other team has this year, we also see the offense succeeding with quarterback Cade Klubnik facing an overrated SMU defense that has not faced much. Klubnik passed for 3041 yards with an excellent ratio of 29 touchdown passes against five interceptions facing a more difficult schedule than Jennings endured.
Furthermore, Klubnik finished with 23 Big Time throws and only six Turnover Worthy Passes per PFF!
The Pick
We expect Clemson to come up big in the biggest game of the year with the better quarterback and a defensive line that can disrupt SMU. Take the points with the Tigers in front of a mostly partisan crowd in a likely upset.
Predicted Score: Clemson 28 – SMU 23
NCAAF Pick: Clemson +2 (-107) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
Penn State Nittany Lions vs. Oregon Ducks Odds
Saturday, December 07, 2024 – 08:00 PM ET at Lucas Oil Stadium
The major talking point surrounding this Big Ten Championship is Penn State coach James Franklin losing his last 11 games against the Top 5 teams. Nonetheless, the Nittany Lions have a defense and running game to take #1 Oregon down to the wire. We are taking the 3.5 points with Penn State here, with that hook on the 3 being crucial.
Not Too Many Deep Balls
Oregon is the only undefeated team in college football this season, and there is certainly no doubt that Dillon Gabriel is the superior quarterback in this matchup. He has guided the Ducks to the 14th-ranked passing offense in the nation at 277.6 yards per game.
What is interesting, however, is this is not your typical Oregon team as they do not have blazing speed at wide receiver. Gabriel has amassed his stats while averaging only 6.7 aerial yards per attempt, which is the third-lowest mark among qualifying FBS quarterbacks! That takes a load off a great Penn State defense that needs to be not too concerned about being beaten over the top.
Gabriel also figures to face more pressure than usual from the Lions’ elite pass rusher Abdul Carter, who may be the best edge rusher the Oregon line has had to deal with all year. Also, the Ducks may not have their usual rushing success against a Penn State run defense ranked seventh, allowing just 96.9 yards per game.
Must Run Successfully
Penn State’s only loss was to Ohio State 20-13, but it would be a different narrative if the Lions were not held scoreless in two goal-to-go situations. The second was with a minute left, with Franklin doing Franklin things with ultra-conservative play-calling in big games.
Nonetheless, Penn State must run the ball effectively to have a chance in this game, and they are now in a better position to do so with Nicholas Singleton showing more burst in recent weeks after being slowed by injury before that. He rushed for 87 yards on 13 carries in the season finale against Maryland. Continued success here can slow the vaunted Oregon pass rush that ranked sixth in the nation in sacks by keeping PSU in manageable downs.
The Pick
The only thing preventing us from calling an outright upset is Franklin’s track record. Still, we are betting on Penn State here at +3.5, and we recommend making sure you get that hook.
Predicted Score: Oregon 28 – Penn State 27
NCAAF Pick: Penn State +3.5 (-110) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
