Since the College Football Playoff was adopted, five teams have won at least one title. Three of those teams are from the SEC, and the others are Ohio State and Clemson. No one from the Big 12 or Pac-12 has won a CFP National Championship, and few have even reached a title game.
In fact, the last time a Pac-12 team won a national title was when USC won in 2004. Since then, the conference took a step back while the SEC became a monolith. However, recent moves are shaking up the powers in college football, and the Trojans might be on the rise.
USC has a new head coach and starting quarterback, and they hope to become a recruiting powerhouse once again. They are building for the future, but they should be competitive in the present.
In fact, BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review) has the odds at +1400 to win the National Championship this year. Is that a value bet for the Trojans in the 2022 season?
Betting on Caleb Williams
Let’s be clear. If you are betting on the USC Trojans in 2022, you are betting that Lincoln Riley turns Caleb Williams into the best quarterback in college football. There are talented players across the board, but that is the one guy who can turn USC from a conference contender to a national champion.
Georgia is the only team in recent memory to win a title without an elite quarterback, and USC does not have the defensive depth to win with ball control. Riley has a working relationship with Williams, and it says something that he recruited him to USC from Oklahoma.
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He obviously believes in him, and Williams showed why as a freshman last year. Williams is a mobile threat with a strong arm, and he has a coach who knows how to put him in a position to succeed.
Oklahoma was always in the running to win the conference and make the College Football Playoff. Many believe that taking QB1 and the head coach from that program will translate the success over to USC. With someone as talented and electric as Williams under center, it is easy to see why you would think that. Now, let’s look at the path to the CFP.
USC’s 2022 Schedule
When you’re in the Pac-12, you are looking for balance in your schedule. You almost have to go undefeated to be recognized, but you also need some non-conference competition to boost your strength of schedule. There is a bias against these teams, and they are rarely watched because of the time zones.
They have to go out of their way to prove their worth, which means that they need to be 13-0 with a decent schedule to reach the College Football Playoff.
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The USC Trojans have a solid balance in 2022. While the non-conference schedule is mostly laughable, they have a legitimate opponent in Notre Dame. This game to end the season should be a way to validate the Trojans if they are 11-0 heading into this game. It won’t impact the conference standings, but it is still a must-win game for USC.
Traveling to Utah will be a challenge for the Trojans. The Utes have one of the best home-field advantages, and this will likely be a night game against ranked opponents. USC gets to avoid Oregon in the regular season, but playing Utah will be a way to show how strong this team truly is.
A loss in any other game would be considered an upset, but at least USC has two games where they can prove their worth.
Is USC a Value Bet?
The Trojans have better than a 7% chance to win the College Football Playoff in my eyes, so this is a value bet in principle. However, this is still unlikely to happen. Georgia will be strong, and Alabama returns the two best players in college football.
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Texas has an elite quarterback, and Ohio State should easily win the Big Ten. If DJ Uiagalelei finds a way to live up to the hype, Clemson will be back in the mix. I would consider looking at a conference championship bet if you want less of a risk, but this one has value on paper.
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