College Football Playoff Quarterfinals Best Bets: Don’t Count Out Notre Dame
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Rainman M.
- December 23, 2024
Top NCAAF Pick: Notre Dame +2 (-108) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Top-rated sportsbooks have released their NCAAF odds for the second round of the College Football Playoffs. Let’s dig in and find the best bet for every game.
After the first round imposed a strong impression of the favored teams’ abilities on the minds of bettors, most of the underdogs are going to show what they’re made of in the second round. I will recommend investing in Boise State, Texas First-Half, Oregon and Notre Dame.
Penn State Nittany Lions vs. Boise State Broncos
Tuesday, December 31, 2024 – 07:30 PM ET in State Farm Stadium
Penn State’s Unimpressive Offense
The scoreline of Penn State’s opening-round win over SMU creates a misleading impression of the quality of the Nittany Lions’ offense.
They scored 38 points but relied on two pick sixes and, for a third touchdown, on a 38-yard drive. Overall, they mustered 325 yards.
Drew Allar
Quarterback Drew Allar is going to struggle against a good defense. Against SMU, he completed just over half his passes for 127 yards.
Two things that he evidently struggles with are staying composed and making good decisions. Allar is someone who will often fail to locate and pass to open targets. He might throw earlier than he should, resulting in, at best, a very short gain.
Conversely, he might hold on to the ball too long and take long sacks. SMU sacked him three times, which might not seem like that much, but Allar ran a lot — he accumulated seven carries for ten rushing yards — in order to avoid being sacked more often.
Pressure
As SMU showed, pressure bothers Allar.
Boise State defensive coordinator Erik Chinander is doing a great job with, among other things, installing and having his players execute creative blitz packages. Largely due to Chinander’s creativity, Boise State ranks third in sack rate.
Allar’s productivity will be limited by Boise State’s pressure-heavy defense.
Boise State’s Run Defense
Now, Penn State could still find success on offense with its rush attack. But its rush attack won’t bail it out in this game. Boise State has one of the top run defenses, ranking 14th, and the Broncos have proven the quality of their run defense by limiting top-ranking ground games, including the ninth-ranked rush attack.
While the Broncos gave up a big run against that ninth-ranked rush attack, they spent the entire game outside of that one play limiting that rush attack to a very inefficient outing. They didn’t have defensive leader Alexander Teubner then. If he plays, the two-time All-Mountain West selection would provide a boost to Boise State’s defense, although it doesn’t need him to prevent a big run from transpiring.
Frankly, the spread is so large and Boise State’s offense so promising that a big run from Penn State will not impede Boise State’s ability to cover the spread.
Boise State’s Elite Running Back
Boise State will have the best player on the field in this game. Ashton Jeanty was a Heisman Finalist who nearly won the award thanks to his dominance as a running back. Jeanty ran for an absurd 2,497 yards, 29 touchdowns and 7.3 YPC. He nearly reached 200 rushing yards against Oregon, for example.
As Illinois’ Kaden Feagin, who ran for 4.9 YPC against them, and Oregon’s ground attack, which collected almost 200 rushing yards against them, can confirm, the Nittany Lions can be gashed on the ground. Jeanty is just the player to do it. He’ll be supported by a more than competent quarterback in Maddux Madsen who ably avoids mistakes, throwing 22 touchdowns to three interceptions on the season.
Takeaway
Penn State is going to struggle to score because Boise State’s pressure will bother Allar and Allar won’t be able to count on his ground game to bail him out.
The Broncos, though, can count on their rush attack. Their elite running back will decide the outcome in Boise State’s favor, and yet the Broncos are such big underdogs because they aren’t a big name like Penn State.
In the first round, SMU wasn’t ready for the moment. The Mustangs lacked composure in the ACC Championship Game and once again failed to avoid mistakes when they were blown out from the start by Penn State. Boise State won its conference’s championship game, though, and will be ready to win another big game.
NCAAF Pick: Boise State +10.5 (-105) at BetOnline
Texas Longhorns vs. Arizona State Sun Devils
Wednesday, January 01, 2025 – 01:00 PM ET at Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Outlook for Arizona State’s Run-Dependent Offense
Especially with its leading wide receiver, Jordyn Tyson, injured, Arizona State’s offense will depend heavily on its rush attack. The problem is that Texas is very hard to run against.
Texas owns the ninth-ranked run defense. So far, Arizona State running back Cam Skattebo’s toughest test was Kansas State, whose run defense ranks 27th. Against Kansas State, Skattebo mustered all of 2.9 YPC on 25 carries.
We can’t count on Skattebo to do well against a solid run defense.
Arizona State Lacks Options
Whereas Tyson, for Arizona State, amassed 1,101 receiving yards, no other wide receiver or tight end on the team has more than 320 receiving yards this season. With Skattebo unable to be efficient, Arizona State lacks options against what is the second-ranked pass defense.
Texas boasts a strong cornerback group that features Jahdae Barron, an All-American selection, and the twelfth-ranked pass rush. Arizona State quarterback Sam Leavitt has only reached 300 passing yards in a game when the opponent was Oklahoma State, which ranks 130th in pass defense.
Leavitt, especially without his best wide receiver, will fail to be productive against a solid pass defense.
Texas’ Rush Attack
Whereas the Sun Devils will fail to move the ball on offense, the Longhorns’ offense will thrive.
Running back Quintrevion Wisner and his offensive line have grown, as evident in Wisner’s ability to collect at least 110 rushing yards and at least 5.6 YPC in three of his last four games. The one exception was the Georgia game, but Georgia’s defense possesses a level of physicality and physical talent that Arizona State’s undersized defense sorely lacks, especially with its key safety Shamari Simmons out for the first half of this game due to his targeting penalty.
For example, Kansas State running back DJ Giddens amassed 133 rushing yards on 9.5 YPC against Arizona State’s defense. Wisner can inflict the same level of damage, especially with his highly efficient quarterback Quinn Ewers commanding the defense’s respect with his consistent ability to hit short and intermediate throws.
Takeaway
Texas will cover the first-half spread even if it fails to exceed 14 first-half points.
This is not a slow-starting team: the Longhorns rank sixth with 20.5 first-half points per game. They can exceed this total, especially with the help of Wisner. But they don’t need to exceed this total in order to cover the first-half spread, because their defense is simply so good and is too much for an Arizona State offense that lacks sufficient weaponry in the pass attack to come close to compensating for the shortcomings of its rush attack when it encounters a tough test.
To consider the full game: Texas is not a team to run up the score. But with the game undecided in the first half, the Longhorns will exert their match-up-supported dominance.
NCAAF Pick: Texas First-Half -7 (-115) at BetOnline
Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Oregon Ducks
Wednesday, January 01, 2025 – 05:00 PM ET at Rose Bowl
Oregon’s Unstoppable Offense
Oregon brings the seventh-ranked scoring offense, which averages 36.9 points per game, into this game.
The Ducks’ offense is well-tested, as it exceeded 30 points in its first game against Ohio State and most recently scored 45 points against Penn State’s fifth-ranking scoring defense. Penn State is well-known to have a talented defensive line that normally does a great job of applying pressure and accruing sacks. But the Ducks, proving their unstoppable lethalness, were able to scheme their way around Penn State’s defensive strength.
They are too well-coached and, led by Heisman finalist Dillon Gabriel at quarterback, too talented to keep under 30 points. When these teams first played, Gabriel was highly efficient and threw for 341 yards partly because Ohio State couldn’t cover his receivers.
The Buckeyes got to face a freshman quarterback in the last round, but now they will be overwhelmed in this affair.
The Spread
I can’t see why the Ducks don’t exceed 30 points, but then I would find it too ridiculous to expect them to score over 30 points and then to expect them to fail to cover the spread as the underdog.
Ohio State will need to score at least 35 points to cover the spread, but this is an unrealistic task. When they played Oregon, their rush attack largely struggled. Excluding one big run, their top two running backs failed to sniff three YPC, which indicates that they failed to attain any consistent level of success.
In that game, Oregon didn’t even have run-stopping defensive end Jordan Burch, but the Ducks have too many other good defenders as part of their ninth-ranked scoring defense, and Burch is healthy again.
Without being able to run the ball, Ohio State will place too much pressure on quarterback Will Howard, whose tendency to throw interceptions — he has thrown nine this season — and Oregon’s eighth-ranking pass defense will inhibit his Buckeyes from keeping pace with Oregon’s stacked offense.
I think that Oregon is the best team left in the CFP, so taking the Ducks as the underdog is a must.
NCAAF Pick: Oregon +2.5 (-105) at BetOnline
Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. Georgia Bulldogs
Wednesday, January 01, 2025 – 08:45 PM ET at Caesars Superdome
Key Trend
Notre Dame’s head coach Marcus Freeman gets more than the standard week to prepare his team for this second-round game against Georgia.
Extra preparation time for Freeman is crucial. His Fighting Irish are 11-0 ATS when they have this advantage.
Georgia Against Mobile Quarterbacks
Even if we forget this trend, Notre Dame’s outlook still looks strong in this matchup because it possesses a mobile quarterback in Riley Leonard. Leonard has collected 751 rushing yards on 5.6 YPC so far. He is a dangerous runner.
Throughout the season, Georgia has struggled against offenses that are quarterbacked by dangerous runners. The Bulldogs lost to Alabama and Ole Miss. They nearly lost to heavy underdog Georgia Tech. They only soundly beat a Florida team whose starting quarterback suffered a first-half injury. The Gators won the first half 13-6.
Their other sound win against a team with a mobile quarterback came at home against a Tennessee team whose freshman quarterback had been awful on the road, even at lowly Arkansas, all year.
We’ve seen in these games how the strong running of opposing mobile quarterbacks opens up big plays in the passing game. Leonard, by running well, will thrive in the air against a Georgia cornerback room that, missing their top guy from last year, has struggled throughout the season. Overall, Georgia ranks 70th in pass defense.
Georgia Won’t Score Enough
Led by mobile quarterbacks, Alabama scored 41, Florida with its backup quarterback playing the entire second half scored 20, Ole Miss scored 28, Georgia Tech (before overtime) scored 27, and Tennessee with its freshman on the road scored 17.
Notre Dame will definitely win as the underdog if it holds Georgia to below 20 points. The Bulldogs won’t score enough points with their backup quarterback, Gunner Stockton, playing.
While Stockton was efficient against Texas, he mustered all of 75 passing yards on 16 attempts and, until very late, benefitted from Texas’ silly unwillingness to blitz — when Texas did blitz him late, Stockton threw an interception that almost gave the game away for Georgia.
Expect Notre Dame to blitz. With its third-ranked pass defense supported by a strong secondary, the Fighting Irish can certainly afford to be aggressive.
If Stockton does show more composure against the blitz, he still has not exhibited grounds for optimism. He also won’t be able to count on his 96th-ranked rush attack or his wide receiver crew, which leads the FBS in drops, for support.
Takeaway
Notre Dame will have a much easier time scoring thanks to its mobile quarterback. Georgia does not have the firepower on offense to keep pace with what will be an exceedingly well-coached Fighting Irish squad.
NCAAF Pick: Notre Dame +2 (-108) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
