College Football Playoff Semifinal Best Bets: Pick Cotton Bowl to be Tight Battle
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LT Profits
- January 5, 2025
NCAAF Pick: Texas +6 (-105) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
We have had a successful Bowl Season thus far as we stand at 6-3. This comes on the heels of going 18-11-1, 62.1% over the last 10 weeks of the regular season.
We look to continue that success in the College Football Playoff Semifinals with three plays we feel all have betting value based mostly on our proprietary model at the current NCAAF odds. We have selections on the side in the Orange Bowl on January 9th and on the side and total in the Cotton Bowl on January 10th.
Orange Bowl
Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. Penn State Nittany Lions
Thursday, January 09, 2025 – 07:30 PM ET at Hard Rock Stadium
Not only is Notre Dame the hottest team in the country right now, but we also feel they have a big coaching edge in the Orange Bowl. Thus, we are backing the Fighting Irish as small favorites when they take on Penn State.
Longest Winning Streak
Notre Dame currently owns the longest winning streak in the country at 12 straight, with the last nine wins all being by double digits! This includes a 23-10 win in the Playoff quarterfinals over a Georgia team that we still have rated higher than their opponents here from Penn State. That win came despite a season low 244 total yards of total offense, as the defense stepped up by limiting Georgia to a season low of their own at 296 yards.
We look for a bounce-back effort here for an offense that averaged 419.2 yards per game this season while ranking 10th nationally in overall yards per play at 6.6. After all, the Irish went up against one of the best and hardest-hitting defenses in the country in Georgia, and while the Penn State defense has comparable defensive stats, they have faced a weaker schedule.
And the Notre Dame defense is legit, as they were seventh in the country in total defense during the season and fifth in yards per play allowed at 4.5. Plus, you cannot underestimate the masterful coaching job by Marcus Freeman since the Irish were shocked by Northern Illinois as 28-point favorites in the second game of the season.
Yet to Beat a Team This Good
Penn State comes in at 13-2 after beating Boise State 31-14 in the quarterfinals, but their coach James Franklin has continued his reputation of coming up short in big games. That is because, despite the record, the two losses came against by far the two best teams the Nittany Lions faced: Ohio State and Oregon. Well, the fact that Notre Dame is favored here on a neutral field validates that they are now in the top three teams Penn State has faced this season.
Sure, the numbers say that the Lions are fifth in the country in total defense allowing only 279.9 yards per game, but again, we feel that is a reflection of their schedule. Looking at the two best opponents they have faced, they allowed 466 yards to Oregon and 358 yards to Ohio State in the two losses. Even Boise State amassed 412 yards last game in what was a 17-14 game before Penn State scored that last two touchdowns.
Penn State closed as 11.5-point favorites in that game, meaning that oddsmakers rate Notre Dame nearly two touchdowns better than Boise. We agree with that assessment, and as mentioned, we expect a return to form for the Irish offense.
All things considered, we feel this is a light line as we give Notre Dame the edge both on the field and on the sidelines. Bet the Fighting Irish as small chalk in the Orange Bowl.
Predicted Score: Notre Dame 27 – Penn State 20
NCAAF Pick: Notre Dame -1.5 (-113) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Cotton Bowl
Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Texas Longhorns
Friday, January 10, 2025 – 07:30 PM ET at AT&T Stadium
We see the potential for a classic showdown in the Cotton Bowl, where the perception of the teams’ performances in the quarterfinals may have this line artificially inflated. We are taking the points with Texas in what we expect to be a tight and relatively low-scoring affair against Ohio State.
Skewed Line?
Before delving into the Xs and Os of this game, let us first look at the line itself. Prior to the quarterfinal round of the Playoff, our power ratings for this potential matchup would have made Ohio State favored by around 3 points with this being a semi-road game for them in Arlington. Then, the entire nation saw Ohio State turn in possibly the best performance by any team this season and Texas blow a 16-point lead in the fourth quarter before winning in overtime.
But with that said, we simply cannot get to this current available line of Texas +6, as we think adjusting Ohio State to -3.5 or -4 would suffice in mostly hostile territory.
Now, we fully admit that the Buckeyes were outstanding in the 41-21 dismantling of previously #1 Oregon, and we even admit that we have them rated as the best team in the Final Four. This is a well-balanced squad that leads the country in both total defense and yards per play allowed (4.1), while at the same time ranking 34th in total offense and sixth in yards per play (6.8).
However, that game against Oregon was over when the Bucks got off to an incredibly hot start that saw them leading 34-0 in the second quarter. We do not see a duplication of that start here against probably the best defense Ohio State has faced all season.
Another Great Defense
Texas seemed to be cruising in their quarterfinal, not really feeling threatened all game thanks to their defense coming up big whenever Arizona State tried to mount a threat. The Longhorns led 24-8 until 6:30 remaining in the game, when the Sun Devils scored on a trick play with superstar running back Cam Skattebo throwing a 42-yard touchdown pass. That opened the floodgates ultimately leading to overtime.
We do not think that contest should have gotten that close though, as Texas had some questionable play-calling, continuing to pass often while ignoring the run even with the big lead. They also committed 10 penalties during the game with most coming at the most inopportune times. That is just another reason why we think this line adjustment seems unwarranted.
And let us not forget that the Texas defense ranks right behind that of Ohio State, as the Horns are third in total defense and a fractional second in yards per play allowed (4.1, same as Ohio State before rounding). They also have the best secondary in the country, leading the nation in Coverage Rating per PFF.
That makes Texas just about the only defense capable of at least containing superstar Ohio State receiver Jeremiah Smith, who had 187 receiving yards against the Ducks.
Betting the Side
As long as the Longhorns do not commit costly penalties like they did last game, we see them taking this game right down to the wire on the strength of their defense. Yes, Ohio State grades out better offensively, and that may decide this game on the field. But covering what we think is a significantly inflated spread is a different story. We are taking the points with Texas in front of a mostly supportive crowd in the Cotton Bowl.
Betting the Total
These just might be the two best defenses in the country, and Texas should try to establish the run much more than they did in the quarterfinals. That sounds like a perfect recipe for an Under, especially with this posted total also seeming a bit inflated in the 50s.
Predicted Score: Ohio State 24 – Texas 23
NCAAF Pick: Texas +6 (-105) at Bovada
NCAAF Pick: Under 53.5 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
