NCAAF Pick: UL Monroe +10½ (-110) at BetAnySports
The oddsmakers post early NCAAF odds for a reason and we like to see where they go so we can take advantage of the underdogs that are getting too many points and the favorites laying too few.
Let’s scope out the lines at the best offshore sportsbooks and make some money this week in college football!
Army Black Knights vs. Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks
Saturday, September 02, 2023 – 7:00 PM EDT at Malone Stadium
Key Facts
- Army was 5-5 against the spread last season
- Army averaged 28.6 points per game last season
- UL Monroe averaged 22.3 points per game last season
Where’s the Value?
This game started out as low as Army -7 but that number has swelled to as high as -10 ½ at some of the best offshore shops. And if you believe I am looking solely for underdogs, you are mistaken, I am looking for value, regardless of whether that comes in the form of a favorite or an underdog. It just so happens that the public is getting down early on more recognizable names because that’s what they do.
Fortunately for us, we can take advantage of this reflexive wagering and grab the best numbers where we find them. I should also point out that because sports betting is much more mainstream than it ever was, the public is realizing they can bet games in advance which is causing these numbers to inflate. Granted, the average Joe Q. Public won’t bet until game day but there is enough action out there for the oddsmakers to move the numbers.
The Pick
In this case, we see that Army is now laying north of 10 points and that’s just a bridge too far in my opinion. As we all know, the military academies love to run and run and run. Army is certainly no exception as they were ranked No. 2 in the nation in rushing yards per game (289.4), trailing only Air Force last season.
This should bode well for the underdogs here as a running attack chews time off the clock and double-digit dogs tend to fare well when they are not getting relentlessly assaulted through the air. Let’s grab the points and cash a ticket with UL Monroe.
NCAAF Pick: UL Monroe +10 ½ (-110) at BetAnySports
Arkansas State Red Wolves vs. Oklahoma Sooners
Saturday, September 02, 2023 – 12:00 PM EDT at Memorial Stadium
Key Facts
- Oklahoma covered only five times in 13 chances against the spread last season.
- Oklahoma’s defense ranked 103rd, allowing 30 points per game, last season.
- Arkansas State ranked 3rd in fewest turnovers last season, allowing just eight all year.
Important Number
This line opened as low as -32½ but not surprisingly that number has drifted north and it has gone above an important number. We now see that it has passed through the five-touchdown mark (including the extra point) to where the Sooners are now favored by 35 ½ points.
This looks like a good spot to pounce because we need to keep in mind these are not Lincoln Riley’s Sooners anymore. Oklahoma fell hard and fast after Riley took Caleb Williams and a few other talented pieces with him to USC, leaving Oklahoma to try and pick up the pieces. The Sooners ended with a 3-6 conference mark and 6-7 overall.
The Pick
And while Arkansas State is no powerhouse, hailing from the lightly regarded Sun Belt Conference, we should know that they limit their mistakes and could very easily hang within the margins against this household name.
NCAAF Pick: Arkansas State +35½ (-110) at BetAnySports
Utah State Aggies vs. Iowa Hawkeyes
Saturday, September 02, 2023 – 12:00 PM EDT at Kinnick Stadium
Key Facts
- Utah State has won 5 of their last 8 games
- Utah State has covered the 1st quarter moneyline in 5 of their last 8 games
- Iowa has only covered the 1st quarter moneyline in 6 of their last 22 games
Going Up!
The line on this game has spiked from Iowa -19 to as high as -25 ½ as of this writing. That is a substantial increase and some of it has to do with a middling Mountain West challenger on the road against a decent Big Ten foe.
But the case can be made that everyone knew that before the oddsmakers opened the line at -19 so why the 6½ point jump? Well, there are no unexpected injuries on the Aggies side and all we know is that Utah State will likely be seeing its starting quarterback, Cooper Legas, returning as the main man under center.
The Pick
The Aggies got out in front early in their games while Iowa’s offense is slow to ignite as evidenced by their first-quarter performances last season. And as good as the Hawkeyes’ defense was last year, ranked No. 6 (14.4 PPG), their offense was lackluster, averaging 17.7 points per game, placing them 123rd in the nation.
Although Iowa is ranked No. 25 in the nation, I won’t be laying 25 ½ with an offense like theirs. Let’s turn the tables and grab this inflated number with the Utah State.
NCAAF Pick: Utah State +25½ (-110) at Bookmaker
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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