College Football Week 10 Best Bets: Rebels with a Cause in Arkansas
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LT Profits
- November 1, 2024
Top NCAAF Pick: Ole Miss -7.5 (-105) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
After going 8-3-1 over the last four weeks, we have now reached Week 10 of the 2014 College Football Season. And while it is Friday, that does not mean that there is still no value to be found on the Saturday card. We are here with three plays we feel all have betting value at the current NCAAF odds, with most plays based on our proprietary model.
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Ole Miss Rebels vs. Arkansas Razorbacks
Saturday, November 02, 2024 – 12:00 PM ET at Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium
While we are not normally fans of laying around a touchdown on the road, we see huge advantages on both sides of the ball for Mississippi when they visit Illinois. We will go ahead and back Ole Miss as road chalk.
Havoc Advantage
The raw stats show that Mississippi ranks 11th in the country in total defense allowing 296.0 yards per game and third in overall yards per play allowed at just 4.1. But Ole Miss is even better metrically, leading the nation in Havoc per cfbstats.com. Havoc is a metric that incorporates tackles for loss, pass break-ups and fumbles forced.
Well, the Rebels lead the country in both tackles-for-loss and passed broken up! And they are facing an Arkansas offense ranked 97th in Havoc allowed.
Offensively, Mississippi is second in total offense at 536.6 yards per game, with 352.4 of those yards coming through the air from their fourth-ranked passing offense. Quarterback Jaxson Dart has had only one bad game at LSU but has thrown a total of just four turnover-worthy passes in all other games combined per PFF. He should have a field day against an Arkansas secondary that PFF rates 123rd out of 134 FBS teams in Coverage.
Facing Better
Granted, Arkansas ranks seventh nationally in total offense, ranking 28th in rushing offense and 23rd in passing offense. However, they have run up scores against lesser teams, such as scoring 70 points on Arkansas-Pine Bluff (FCS), 37 vs. UAB and 58 last week vs. the last-place team in the SEC in Mississippi State.
The Razorbacks have not fared nearly as well against the better teams in the SEC, scoring 10 points in a loss to LSU, 17 in a loss to Texas A&M and even only 19 while upsetting Tennessee. Now, the Hogs are facing arguably the best defense they have faced so far. And despite some big yardage totals, quarterback Taylen Green has a modest ratio of 11/7 touchdown passes to interceptions and he struggles with accuracy with Arkansas ranked 139th in catchable balls.
So, in the end, we see Arkansas struggling offensively against the Mississippi Havoc just as they have struggled vs. better teams all season. At the same time, we see Dart of Ole Miss having great success against a Razorbacks’ secondary that has been terrible in Coverage. Thus, bet on Ole Miss as road favorites.
Predicted Score: Ole Miss 38 – Arkansas 24
NCAAF Pick: Ole Miss -7.5 (-105) at Bovada
Minnesota Golden Gophers vs. Illinois Fighting Illini
Saturday, November 02, 2024 – 12:00 PM ET at Memorial Stadium
While it seems unusual for a 5-3 Minnesota team to be favored on the road over a 6-2 Illinois team, not only do we get it, but we also think this line is a tad light. Therefore, we are betting on the Golden Gophers as short chalk in Champaign.
Only Getting Better
Minnesota could easily be 7-1 instead of 5-3. The Gophers lost by two points to North Carolins and by three points at Michigan with one special-teams play deciding each outcome. They have now won three straight games since that Michigan loss with quarterback Max Brosmer getting a full grasp of this offense after transferring in from New Hampshire of the FCS.
In fact, Brosmer is coming off his best game of the season vs. Maryland last week, completing 26-of-33 passes for 320 yards with four touchdown passes and no interceptions. Brosmer’s steady improvement has had a domino effect on the entire offense, which has averaged 29.3 points in the last four games.
And remember that the defense has been there all year for Minnesota, ranking ninth in the country in total defense and seventh in passing defense. The rushing defense lags behind a bit, but it still ranks a commendable 38th, which should be good enough against an Illini team that is just 81st in rushing offense.
Very Lucky
Meanwhile, Illinois does not profile as a 6-2 team, which is what happens when luck is on your side. The Illini have had two wins in overtime and three one-possession wins overall. That has helped mask the fact that they rank 94th in total offense and 69th in total defense, actually getting outgained by their opponents with a -10.5 yards per game margin!
Furthermore, the best aspect of the entire Illinois team is their great receiving duo of Zakhari Franklin and Pat Bryant. However, Bryant suffered a concussion last week and is questionable for this game. Plus, quarterback Luke Altmyer has been as lucky as his team has, as he sports more turnover-worthy passes (11) than big-time throws (10) per PFF yet has escaped with just three interceptions.
We see this as a matchup of a team and quarterback due for regression in Illinois and Altmyer facing a team and quarterback on the upswing in Minnesota and Brosmer. Thus, we have no issue laying this small spot on the road with the Golden Gophers.
Predicted Score: Minnesota 27 – Illinois 17
NCAAF Pick: Minnesota -2.5 (-116) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
Navy Midshipmen vs. Rice Owls
Saturday, November 02, 2024 – 04:00 PM ET at Rice Stadium
Navy saw their undefeated dreams and any chance of making the College Football Playoffs smashed in a 51-14 beatdown by Notre Dame last week. We would not be surprised by a flat performance here, leading us to back Rice as a double-digit home underdog under an interim coach.
Big Spread for Academy Team
Even under the best of circumstances, it would be uncomfortable giving double-digit spreads with any service academy teams since they are all run-oriented, thus taking a lot of time off the clock. Navy certainly fits that typical mode, ranking fourth in the country in rushing offense and 127th in passing offense. If you now add in a few sleepy possessions early, this large spread seemingly becomes more daunting to cover.
While Navy does not pass much, quarterback Blake Horvath suffered a thumb injury last week. He is expected to play but may throw even less than usual if the injury is bothersome, effectively becoming another running back. That is a look the Rice defense is familiar with, having faced Army and other mobile quarterbacks this year. And Rice’s 2-6 record, that is not the fault of a defense ranked a good 29th nationally at 324.2 total yards per game allowed.
Coach Fired
Rice fired coach Mike Bloomgren after a 17-10 loss to Connecticut last week, naming Pete Alamar as interim coach. This may lead to some new wrinkles offensively to give the good Owls defense some support. One area capable of being rejuvenated is a running game that is 113th in rushing offense despite averaging a decent 4.8 yards per rush.
That points to a lack of volume due to being behind so often, forcing Rice into 37.8 passing attempts per game, 16th most in the land. However, we feel they have a chance to better establish the run against a Navy team ranked 105th in rushing defense and 122nd in Rush Success Rate defensively per PFF.
Also, remember starting quarterback EJ Warner should be back this week after freshman Drew Devillier started last week with disastrous results, completing 14-of-30 passes for a meager 88 yards. Warner played well in his last two starts before missing last week, passing for 618 yards including directing a 29-27 win over UTSA.
We see Rice doing enough on both sides of the ball to hang around in this spot. Take the double-digit points at home with the Owls.
Predicted Score: Navy 28 – Rice 23
NCAAF Pick: Rice +11 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
