Top NCAAF Pick: Kansas State (+165) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
The betting odds for Week 10 in the NCAAF are here, and three games particularly interest me: Wisconsin vs. Indiana, Kansas State vs. Texas, and Washington vs. USC.
For your best bets, I will recommend investing in all three underdogs. I personally like to invest three-quarters of a unit in the underdog ATS and the remaining quarter in the underdog ML.
Wisconsin Badgers vs. Indiana Hoosiers
Saturday, November 4, 2023 – 12:00 PM EDT at Memorial Stadium
The Angle
Wisconsin is almost impossible to bet on as a heavy favorite. Oddsmakers have the Badgers posted as nine-point favorites.
Of course, in order to cover the spread, they’ll have to score at least ten points. I imply in jest that they won’t score ten points. Maybe they’ll manage 13?
Wisconsin’s Offensive Problems
The Badgers are already a pretty bad offensive team. They rank in the bottom half nationally in points per game. In their last four games – they played Rutgers, Iowa, Illinois, and Ohio State – they’re averaging just over 16 points per game.
Starting quarterback Tanner Mordecai and Chimere Dike, one of their top wide receivers, are injured.
Arguably the most crucial injury took place on Saturday: star running back Braelon Allen went down with an ankle injury. While his status for Saturday’s game is officially up in the air, it does not look good. Allen was seen in a walking boot and has been unable to participate in practice. To make matters worse, Allen’s backup is already out for the season.
Without Allen, Wisconsin would have to rely on two running backs who played different positions a year ago. Against Power Five competition, the Badgers have struggled when Allen failed to be productive.
In the three games in which Allen failed to reach 100 rushing yards, the Badgers scored ten points against Ohio State, six against Iowa, and 22 against Washington State. Allen’s absence would be even more deleterious to his team’s offensive potential, especially against an improving Hoosiers run defense that just held Penn State to 3.1 YPC.
Brendan Sorsby’s Importance
The Hoosiers impressively outgained Penn State in total yardage last week.
They benefit from having settled on quarterback Brendan Sorsby as their starter. While Sorsby looks to pass first, he is a dual-threat quarterback who, for example, ran for 49 yards against Rutgers.
His potential as a runner will be helpful against a Wisconsin defense that is vulnerable to mobile quarterbacks, as evident when Illinois quarterback Luke Altmyer amassed a season-high 100 rushing yards against the Badgers. Compared to Big Ten teams, Wisconsin’s pass defense ranks in the bottom half, which positions Sorsby as a threat also through the air.
NCAAF Pick: Indiana +9 (-105) at BetOnline
NCAAF Pick: Indiana (+275) at BetOnline
Kansas State Wildcats vs. Texas Longhorns
Saturday, November 4, 2023 – 12:00 PM EDT at DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium
Will Howard Is Key
The Wildcats like to run the ball, which might make them seem like an easy matchup for Texas, in view of the latter’s run defense statistics. But Texas has earned its strong run defense ranking by locking down offenses that are distinct from Kansas State’s. K-State is unique in the way in which it involves its quarterback in the run game.
The potency of the Wildcats’ rush attack is evident in the fact that it ranks fourth nationally with 225.7 rushing yards per game. It’s a product of running backs developing to fill in the role vacated by Deuce Vaughn, now a Dallas Cowboy, and of the offensive line growing to become a solid force.
Quarterback Will Howard, in addition to his dangerousness as a runner, has become effective as a passer. Kansas State has won its last two games, against TCU and Houston, by a combined score of 82-6 partly because Howard produced his two best passing performances of the season, achieving a passer rating of over 200 both times.
As evident in its loss to Oklahoma, Texas’ secondary is rather vulnerable and the Longhorns will allow an opponent – even one not featuring a running quarterback like Howard – to run the ball well when it passes well.
Texas’ Weaker Offense
K-State lost by seven last year to Texas, but things are worse for Texas’ offense this time.
Last year, the Longhorns relied heavily on running back Bijan Robinson, an irreplaceable force who now plays for the Atlanta Falcons. Moreover, this year’s Longhorns relied on quarterback Quinn Ewers, but Ewers is injured, so freshman Maalik Murphy is starting in his place, which hinders Texas’ offense.
Kansas State’s Improved Defense
As the rankings show, K-State’s run defense is better this year than it was last year. It took time, but inexperience and positional moves are no longer holding the Wildcats back.
Among other things, they have linebackers now who are effectively recognizing plays and communicating with each other.
They now rank 35th nationally in rush defense, which will put too much pressure on Texas’ backup quarterback. Plus, the Wildcats have improved drastically against the pass. The last two quarterbacks they faced had their worst game of the season against them.
NCAAF Pick: Kansas State +4 (-105) at BetOnline
NCAAF Pick: Kansas State ML (+165) at BetOnline
Washington Huskies vs. USC Trojans
Saturday, November 4, 2023 – 07:30 PM EDT at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
No Killer Extinct
Washington is hard to like as a favorite because it lacks a killer extinct.
The Huskies will gain a sizable lead and then throw it away. For example, they went up 29-18 on Oregon before trying to force long plays and letting Oregon back into the game.
Most recently, they likewise struggled to put away Stanford, although part of this struggle is a product of quarterback Michael Penix’s ongoing funk – his last four games have been his worst ones, as measured by passer rating
USC’s Dangerous Offense
The key is that Washington lets teams hang around, and this tendency is particularly dangerous against a squad like USC, which is the nation’s top-scoring offense largely because it boasts a Heisman candidate in quarterback Caleb Williams.
Williams will certainly have time to operate against a Huskies defense that ranks second-to-last nationally in sack rate.
With Bralen Trice having regressed at defensive end for the Huskies, they lack the ability to create pressure on opposing quarterbacks, which has allowed lesser teams like Stanford to produce significant offensive outputs.
NCAAF Pick: USC +3.5 (-110) at BetOnline
NCAAF Pick: USC (+150) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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