College Football Week 11 Best Bets: Mean Green To Spoil Army Perfection Dreams
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LT Profits
- November 8, 2024
Top NCAAF Pick: North Texas +4.5 (-116) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
After going 11-3-1 over the last five weeks including a 3-0 sweep in Week 10, we have now reached Week 11 of the 2024 College Football Season. While it is Friday, that does not mean that there is still no value to be found at the top-rated sportsbooks for Saturday. We are here with three plays we feel all have betting value at the current NCAAF odds, with most plays based on our proprietary model.
All three of our picks this week are home underdogs we like to win outright, including knocking off two current unbeatens. Our official plays though are taking the points with each play.
And if you’re looking for more value picks, make sure to take a look at our YouTube channel for daily betting advice. Today, our expert covered the Florida vs. Texas and Miami (FL) vs. Georgia Tech matchups.
Navy Midshipmen vs. South Florida Bulls
Saturday, November 09, 2024 – 12:00 PM ET at Raymond James Stadium
We see this as a matchup between what we feel is still an overvalued Navy team and an undervalued South Florida team. Thus, we are taking the points with the Bulls at home in a potential upset.
Spiraling Since First Defeat?
Navy began this season 6-0 straight up and 5-1 ATS before getting crushed by Notre Dame 51-14. And the suffering did not stop there, as they were then upset as 13-point favorites by Rice 24-10 last week. In truth, the 6-0 start came against a very weak schedule, and the Middies still own an SOS ranked 111th so far per PFF even with Notre Dame now included. This does not make the regression very surprising.
On top of that, Navy typically remains a run-oriented team ranking fifth in the country in rushing with 251.4 yards per game on the ground but 127th in passing yards at just 146.8 per game. The problem with that here is that USF has struggled in pass coverage but ranks in the top 15 against the run in both EPA per rush and Rush Success Rate per PFF.
And even if Navy wanted to try and exploit the Bulls’ secondary, quarterback Blake Horvath injured his thumb in the Notre Dame game and then completed only 10-of-21 passes last week for a mere 5.7 yards per attempt.
Better Since QB Change
South Florida began the season 2-4, but they have evened their record with back-to-back high-scoring wins, putting up 35 and 44 points respectively since changing quarterbacks to Bryce Archie. But while Archie has been more efficient than previous starter Byrum Brown, the key to the USF attack remains its deep stable of running backs.
The Bulls boast three running backs that have rushed for at least 242 yards led by Kelley Joiner with 453, and all three have them have averaged a minimum of 5.1 yards per carry. All should have success against a Navy rushing defense ranked 96th overall allowing 168.4 yards per game while also ranking 120th in Rush Success Rate defensively.
The Pick
So, in a game where both teams want to run the ball, South Florida figures to have more success against a weak Navy run defense. Also, the Bulls easily have the better passer in Archie to keep the opposing defense honest. This has us betting on USF as home underdogs.
Predicted Score: South Florida 31 – Navy 27
NCAAF Pick: South Florida +3 (+102) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
Army Black Knights vs. North Texas Mean Green
Saturday, November 09, 2024 – 03:30 PM ET at DATCU Stadium
Army remains an enormous surprise at 8-0, but the Knights could be walking into a trap on homecoming day in North Texas. That gets compounded by questions at quarterback and potentially looking ahead to Notre Dame up next, so we are betting the Mean Green.
Big Drop-Off
Army quarterback Bryson Daily is questionable after missing last week’s game against Air Force with a foot infection. And even if he does play, he may not be 100% with the infection possibly affecting his mobility.
Granted, the Black Knights average the third fewest pass attempts in the country, but Daily’s strength lies in his great decision while running in the triple option. He guided Army to 40.4 points per game over the first seven starts while also serving as the team’s leading rusher with 909 yards. He even threw seven touchdown passes without an interception when he opted to pass!
There was a huge drop-off last week to freshman Dewayne Coleman, who guided the team to just 20 points while completing only five passes and averaging 2.8 yards per rush. Yet, there is a real chance Army may choose to be cautious as sit Daily again with Notre Dame on deck.
Also, do not forget Army’s 8-0 mark has come against an SOS ranked 123rd on PFF.
Homecoming
North Texas probably did not expect Army to be undefeated when scheduling them for homecoming day, but we feel that will only make the Mean Green more motivated. And while this game pits a UNT team ranked third nationally in total offense averaging 527.6 yards against an Army squad ranked fifth in total defense allowing 272.8 per contest, we trust the North Texas offense more given Army’s soft schedule.
Further proof of how fraudulent the Army surface numbers on defense are is the Knights rank outside the top 80 in defensive Success Rate against both the run and the pass. After facing nothing but cupcakes so far, they are finally facing a team that can exploit that. Look for North Texas quarterback Chandler Morris to expose the untested Army secondary while guiding the second ranked passing offense in the land at 371.6 ariel yards per game.
The Pick
Besides the apparent offensive advantage for the Mean Green, they have had two weeks to prepare for the Army offense coming off a bye. Add this all up and back North Texas as a dog.
Predicted Score: North Texas 31 – Army 28
NCAAF Pick: North Texas +4.5 (-116) at Bookmaker
Brigham Young Cougars vs. Utah Utes
Saturday, November 09, 2024 – 10:15 PM ET at Rice-Eccles Stadium
There are a few teams entering this week undefeated that are in danger of suffering their first loss. We think BYU is one of them, so we are fading them (again) on the road by backing Utah.
Regression to Finally Come?
We have faded BYU several times during their 8-0 (7-1 ATS) start, yet they maddeningly keep overperforming despite modest peripherals. After all, this team is averaging 35.1 points despite ranking a middling 49th nationally in total offense. They are 3-0 in one-possession games, and they had wins over Kansas State and Arizona by scores of 38-9 and 41-19 respectively despite getting outgained over those two games!
So how exactly does that happen? Well, they had four non-offensive touchdowns in those two blowouts via either the defense or kick returns, while also having a +6 turnover edge combined. That kind of luck has been a recurring theme for the Cougars, as besides their +7 turnover-margin for the year, they are an incomprehensible 15-for-18 on fourth down conversions.
We basically dare BYU to keep that up, as they should have a lot of fourth downs this game with the Utah defense ranking second in preventing third down conversions.
Can Utah Have Rushing Success
This has been a lost season for Utah, sitting at 4-4 due to a weak offense ranked an identical 74th in both rushing and passing overall. The defense has been top 25 in Success Rate though and the Utes have had two weeks to prepare for BYU due to a bye week. And this is now essentially their Super Bowl with nothing else to play for.
That extra preparation time could allow interim offensive coordinator Mike Bajakian to add some wrinkles. Plus, the Utes do have a stud running back in Micah Bernard, who has run for 782 yards on a fat 6.0 yards per carry. Bajakian has been mostly under-utilized with Utah trailing so much, but he can take advantage of a BYU rush defense ranked 77th in Rush Success Rate and outside the top 100 in EPA per Rush
The Pick
That could allow Utah to control Time of Possession this game for a change, which would help disguise the Utes’ weak quarterback play all season. So, we are going back to the well by fading BYU again with a live home underdog in Utah.
Predicted Score: Utah 24 – BYU 21
NCAAF Pick: Utah +3 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
