NCAAF Pick: Florida State -14 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
The online betting sites post early NCAAF odds for a reason and we like to see where the lines go so that we can take advantage of underdogs getting too many points or favorites laying too few.
Last week we clicked with underdog NC State as they defeated Miami outright and then notched another winner when James Madison easily covered the number against Georgia State.
Let’s scour the board again this week and find the loosest lines at the best offshore sportsbooks and make some more money in college football!
Stanford Cardinal vs. Oregon State Beavers
Saturday, November 11, 2023 – 05:30 PM EST at Reser Stadium
Key Facts
- Stanford is 5-10 ATS in their last 15 games.
- Oregon State is 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games.
- Oregon State is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games against a Pac-12 opponent.
This line has dropped just a bit but it was enough to get our attention as it fell gently onto -21 which means we push if the Beavers decide to let their foot off the gas and only beat the Cardinal by three touchdowns.
Stanford is not a good team as evidenced by their 3-7 record but they may have just shot their load last week when they scored their most impressive victory of the season, a 10-7 win over Washington State as 14-point underdogs.
Because of that, I expect the boys from Stanford to come into this one flat as a board. There is a very strong chance they will still be reveling in that win which will set them up for disaster against an Oregon State team that is ranked 31st in the nation in scoring, averaging 35.2 points per game.
The Pick
But add to that the Beavers will be facing a Stanford squad that scores just 21.3 PPG (108th) but more importantly is ranked 123rd on defense, surrendering 34.1 points per game. There is no doubt Oregon State will surpass that in this one.
NCAAF Pick: Oregon State -21 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
Miami Hurricanes vs. Florida State Seminoles
Saturday, November 11, 2023 – 03:30 PM EST at Doak Campbell Stadium
Key Facts
- Miami-FL is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games.
- Miami-FL is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games against ACC opponents.
- Florida State is 3-1 ATS in their four home games this season.
Florida State humiliated Miami, 45-3, in front of their home crowd at the Hard Rock last season. But now the venue shifts to Tallahassee and the Seminoles are coming home with a head of steam after two convincing road wins over Wake Forest and last week at Pittsburgh.
Miami’s season began to unravel when their head coach or offensive coordinator decided to run the ball instead of end the game in victory formation against Georgia Tech. Ultimately, the Canes fumbled the ball and the Yellow Jackets subsequently scored a touchdown with Miami dropping a 23-20 decision as 19-point home favorites.
Miami then went on to a double overtime win over Clemson followed by an overtime win against Virginia Tech which meant they would be surely gassed for their clash against a gritty NC State last week – which is why we advised a bet on the Wolfpack in this column last week – and don’t you know it, they lost outright as 6 ½ -point favorites.
The Pick
Miami is officially done, cooked, and now they have to face an intra-state rival that has owned them in recent memory. The line has dropped from FSU -15 ½ to as low as -14 over at BetOnline. Let’s jump on this chalky favorite and watch them blow the Hurricanes away just as they did last season.
NCAAF Pick: Florida State -14 (-110) at BetOnline
Michigan Wolverines vs. Penn State Nittany Lions
Saturday, November 11, 2023 – 12:00 PM EST at Beaver Stadium
Key Facts
- Penn State is 13-2-1 ATS in their last 16 games.
- Penn State is 7-0 SU in their last 7 games at home.
- Penn State is 9-1 SU in their last 10 games against Big Ten opponents.
This is the proverbial marquee matchup of Week 11 and while I am not usually inclined to indulge in games where nothing will escape the scrutiny of the oddsmakers, I believe we already have value in this one.
The line opened at Michigan -3 but it didn’t take long for the public to pounce on the No. 2 team in the country which caused the number to spike to -5. But this move opens a tremendous opportunity for those leaning towards betting on the home underdog. Oh, and let’s not forget that the home pup just happens to be 8-1 on the season and ranked No. 9 in the nation.
The Nittany Lions lost their only game of the season to powerhouse Ohio State by the score of 20-12. That game was at the Shoe but this one will be at Happy Valley where Penn State is undefeated and coming off a 51-15 thrashing of Maryland as 7½ point road chalk.
The Pick
We now have the home team coming off a dominating victory that is now getting five points which means we have sailed past two critical numbers (3 and 4) and are poised to not only cover but could easily pull the upset and send Michigan to its first loss of the season.
NCAAF Pick: Penn State +5 (-110) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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