College Football Week 12 Best Bets: Baylor Bears Claw Past Mountaineers
-
LT Profits
- November 15, 2024
Top NCAAF Pick: Baylor -1 (-110) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
After going 12-5-1 over the last six weeks, we have now reached Week 12 of the 2024 College Football Season. And while it is Friday, that does not mean that there is still no value to be found at the top-rated sportsbooks. We are here with three plays we feel all have betting value at the current NCAAF odds, with most plays based on our proprietary model.
And if you’re looking for more value picks, our expert at our YouTube channel has additional betting advice on the Penn State vs. Purdue and LSU vs. Florida matchups.
Liberty Flames vs. Massachusetts Minutemen
Saturday, November 16, 2024 – 12:00 PM ET at Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium
Liberty comes in at 6-2, but they are nowhere near as good as the team that was undefeated last year before losing to Oregon in the Fiesta Bowl. They also seem to not be motivated for this spot against a non-conference opponent on the road in Massachusetts, so we are taking the two-touchdown spread with the Minutemen.
Lost to Kennesaw State
Liberty lost a lot on both sides of the football from last year’s team, and they are fortunate to be 6-2 considering they have had some close calls against weak competition, as evidenced by being 2-6 ATS. Worst of all, one of their two outright losses came to a Kennesaw State team in its first season in the FBS, with the upset of the Flames as 26.5-point underdogs remaining that program’s only FBS win ever.
That shocker aside, Liberty also has non-covering wins over the likes of New Mexico State and FIU and has faced an SOS rated 130th so far per PFF. Yet, they are still contenders to win Conference USA if they win their last two conference games and get some help. But that makes this non-conference game on the road meaningless, and it seems easy for the Flames to come out listless here, especially with the 12 Noon kickoff.
These are obviously not ideal conditions to be laying two touchdowns.
Two Weeks to Prepare
Of course, there is a reason that UMass is a big underdog here as they are not a great team by any stretch at 2-7 straight up and 3-5-1 ATS. However, they are coming off a bye allowing them two weeks to prepare for this. Also, the bye came at a good time with starting quarterback Taisun Phommachanh lost for the season after getting injured last game.
That has allowed presumed new starter Ahmad Haston to get an extra week of practice with the first team, and he does have past starting experience. And frankly, Phommachanh only completed 56.4% of his passes with almost as many interceptions (6) as touchdown passes (8), so we are not even sure there is much of a drop-off.
The Pick
We would have a hard time laying these points with Liberty even under the best of circumstances considering their struggles against a weak schedule. Add in that this game is meaningless to the Flames and bet UMass as large underdogs.
Predicted Score: Liberty 34 – Massachusetts 27
NCAAF Pick: Massachusetts +14 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
Baylor Bears vs. West Virginia Mountaineers
Saturday, November 16, 2024 – 04:00 PM ET at Milan Puskar Stadium
This may be a battle between a couple of 5-4 teams, but Baylor has looked impressive during a three-game winning streak following their 2-4 start while West Virginia comes off an undeserved win at Cincinnati. We are betting on Baylor as tiny road favorites in Morgantown.
Close Losses to Top Two in Big 12
If you dissect Baylor’s record, they have two one-possession losses against BYU and Colorado, two losses that have aged well with those two teams now first and second in the Big 12. Furthermore, the Bears had Colorado beat until a Hail Mary on the final play of regulation forced overtime. And they outgained undefeated BYU in a 34-28 loss.
Baylor has continued to get better as the season has gone on, with the offense especially clicking right now averaging 44.7 points while winning the last three games. Quarterback Sawyer Robertson has eight touchdown passes against one interception during this streak, and he now gets to attack a dreadful West Virginia secondary ranked 130th in Coverage Rate and 133rd in EPA per Pass allowed per PFF.
Poor Matchup Stylistically
West Virginia won 31-24 on the scoreboard last week, but to say it was a fortunate win would be an understatement. The Mountaineers benefitted from two defensive touchdowns and had three short scoring drives of 51, 41 and 31 yards respectively. Thus, all 31 of their points came on only 123 yards of offense. In fact, they finished the game with just 248 total yards and 10 first downs compared to 24 first downs for Cincinnati!
Also, the Mountaineers must run the ball to be successful with an offense ranked 30th nationally in rushing offense with 191.3 yards per game but 94th in passing with 198.4 yards. The problem there is that plays right into the strength of a Baylor defense that allows just 3.6 yards per carry while ranking in the top 10 in Rush Success Rate allowed.
The Pick
The bottom line here is that Baylor’s Robertson should find open receivers all game long against the lacking WVU secondary while the Mountaineers figure to establish the running game they need. This has us laying the one point with the Bears on the road.
Predicted Score: Baylor 37 – West Virginia 27
NCAAF Pick: Baylor -1 (-110) at Bookmaker
Kansas Jayhawks vs. BYU Cougars
Saturday, November 16, 2024 – 10:15 PM ET at LaVell Edwards Stadium
It would not be another college football week without us again betting against an extremely lucky BYU team that remains undefeated at 9-0, right? And this week, we are doing so with one of the unluckiest teams in the nation by backing a Kansas team that deserves better than a 3-6 record.
Finally Failed to Cover
Our persistence with fading BYU finally paid off last week when they failed to cover for just the second time this season, needing to rally from a 21-10 deficit before barely remaining unbeaten 22-21 at Utah on a walk-off field goal as time expired.
Thus, that lucky rabbit’s foot the Cougars have been carrying all year worked its charms yet again. This remains a team that has benefitted this season from what is now a +10 turnover margin and by going an obscene 16-for-20 on fourth down conversions. Furthermore, BYU is averaging 33.7 points despite ranking only 56th in total offense, mainly due to all that turnover and fourth down luck.
Moreover, quarterback Jake Retzlaff has 18 touchdown passes against 7 interceptions this season despite having as many Turnover Worthy Throws as Big Time Throws at 12 apiece per PFF. That luck could end against the great Kansas cornerback duo of Mello Dotson and Cobee Bryant.
Can Kansas Win Out?
Kansas is on the opposite side of the luck spectrum compared to BYU. In fact, this Jayhawk team that began the season 1-5 looks good enough on paper to win out and become bowl-eligible at 6-6. This is a team that has gone 0-5 in one-possession games, and the sixth loss was not terrible either by 11 points to TCU in what was also a one-possession game until three minutes left.
Remember also that quarterback Jalon Daniels was injured earlier in the year but is now fully healthy. He has been a beast over the last three weeks following a bye week that allowed him to properly recover. Daniels is now up to 1816 passing yards plus 323 rushing yards for the season. And his mobility combined with the great Kansas running backs Devin Neal and Torry Locklin have the team ranked sixth in the country in EPA per Rush.
The Pick
With the BYU defense ranked 106th in EPA per Rush allowed, we are looking for that Kansas offense to key an upset here. Our official play though is taking the points with the Jayhawks.
Predicted Score: Kansas 31 – BYU 27
NCAAF Pick: Kansas +2.5 (+100) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
