College Football Week 13 Best Bets: Warhawks Fight to Become Bowl Eligible
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LT Profits
- November 22, 2024
Top NCAAF Pick: Louisiana Monroe +3 (-120) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
We are now a blazing 15-5-1 over the last seven weeks after another 3-0 sweep last week at the top-rated sportsbooks, and we have now reached Week 13 of the 2024 College Football Season.
And while it is Friday, that does not mean that there is still no value to be found for the Saturday card. We are here with three plays we feel all have betting value based mostly on our proprietary model at the current NCAAF odds.
If you’re looking for more value picks, make sure to take a look at our YouTube channel for more daily betting advice. Today, our expert has advice on the Indiana vs. Ohio State and Vanderbilt vs. LSU games.
Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks vs. Arkansas State Red Wolves
Saturday, November 23, 2024 – 03:00 PM ET at Centennial Bank Stadium
UL Monroe does not have a rich football history, so making a bowl game would be a nice accomplishment for the program. We are backing the Warhawks to become bowl-eligible this weekend with a mild upset over Arkansas State, although our official play is taking the field goal.
Higher YPP vs. Tougher Schedule
Monroe has been one win away from being bowl-eligible since starting the season at 5-1, but they have since lost four straight games to even their record at 5-5. It is worth noting however that they were large underdogs in all four losses, which came against three of the top teams in the Sun Belt in Marshall, Texas State and South Alabama as well as Auburn of the mighty SEC.
Furthermore, they close the season with a UL Lafayette team that leads the West Division at 5-1 in conference play. So, this is the game the Warhawks have circled as their best path to a bowl, and it helps to face an overachieving Arkansas State squad that may relax a bit after becoming bowl-eligible last week.
And more importantly, a strong case can be made that Monroe is the better team here anyway, especially on defense where ULM is allowing 5.7 yards per play compared to a weak 6.8 yards per play for the Red Wolves.
Greatly Overachieved
Arkansas State may be the least deserving 6-4 team in the country, but it is what it is, and they clinched a bowl berth with a 27-20 win over Georgia State last week. However, they were outgained in that game 411-358, which continued their pattern of good fortune all season.
You see, the Red Wolves have been outgained on a yards-per-play basis of 5.3-6.8 and on a total yardage basis of 386.4-459.7. Worst of all, they have even been outscored by nearly 10 points per game, with an average score of 23.8-32.6! And keep in mind that Arkansas State has faced an SOS so far ranked 94th per PFF, nearly 30 spots lower than UL Monroe at 66th.
The Pick
So, the bottom line here is that Monroe has the better yard-differential while facing a tougher schedule. Add in the obvious motivational edge with ULM needing this to become bowl-eligible while Arkansas State clinched last week and take the points with the Warhawks in a probable upset.
Predicted Score: UL Monroe 34 – Arkansas State 27
NCAAF Pick: Louisiana-Monroe +3 (-120) at Bovada
Penn State Nittany Lions vs. Minnesota Golden Gophers
Saturday, November 23, 2024 – 03:30 PM ET at Huntington Bank Stadium
Penn State still has an outside chance to win the Big Ten with some help, but we think they will have a tough battle on their hands on the road at Minnesota this week. We are grabbing the double-digit points with the Golden Gophers.
Who Have They Beaten?
Penn State is 9-1 and ranked fourth on the College Football Playoff Rankings, but quite frankly, we feel they are overrated.
After all, the lone loss came against their only real test all year in Ohio State, and we are hard-pressed to identify what the best win even was. Perhaps rallying from two touchdowns down to beat USC on the road? But even that win has lost its luster given the Trojans have skidded to a 5-5 mark.
This is also a tough matchup for a Nittany Lions team that needs to run the ball given their mediocre receiving corps that lacks breakaway speed. Yes, Penn State is averaging 200.0 rushing yards per game while ranking seventh nationally in yards per rush at a hefty 7.0. But again, the schedule brings those numbers into question, especially since they averaged only 3.8 yards per rush against Ohio State.
Elite Defense
Minnesota has an elite defense capable of slowing Penn State down.
The Gophers rank 12th nationally in total defense with nice balance, ranking 36th in rushing defense and 20th in yards per rush allowed (4.8), as well as 19th in passing defense and 20th in yards per pass allowed (6.0). They have had two weeks to prepare for this game and should be in an ornery mood after getting upset at Rutgers before the bye.
On the other side of the ball, New Hampshire transfer Max Brosmer has become a better quarterback as the season has gone on while learning a new system and adapting to FBS play. In fact, the Gophers have now become a pass-heavy offense, throwing the ball 55% of the time. That suits them well here with Penn State ranked fifth nationally defending the run allowing a mere 98.5 yards per game.
The Pick
The bottom line is that Minnesota can slow Penn State down like no other team has done this year, while Brosmer can attack the Nittany Lions’ defense with short to medium passes. We are betting on the Golden Gophers as home underdogs, with an outright stunner not an impossibility.
Predicted Score: Penn State 27 – Minnesota 23
NCAAF Pick: Minnesota +10.5 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
Northwestern Wildcats vs Michigan Wolverines
Saturday, November 23, 2024 – 03:30 PM ET at Michigan Stadium
This has been a disappointing season for Michigan, and we do not think they merit double-digit favoritism against a decent defense. Thus, we are taking the generous points with Northwestern in this spot.
Looking Ahead to Ohio State?
Yes, we realize that at 5-5, Michigan would become bowl-eligible with a win here. But considering that they are one year removed from a national championship, we feel they are not as focused on making a minor bowl as they are on Ohio State up next, so we will consider this a lookahead spot.
But even putting the scheduling spot aside, the Wolverines appear to be too limited offensively to be giving double digits while facing an elite rushing defense. Remember, Michigan has not won a game by at least 10 points since way back on opening week against Fresno State, and even there, they led only 16-10 until scoring two touchdowns in the last five minutes with one being an interception return.
The Wolverines have been shuffling quarterbacks all year to no avail, ranking 129th in passing offense. They have a nice running back duo in Donovan Edwards and Kalel Mullings, but the problem there is Northwestern ranks 27th in rushing defense as well as in the top 20 in both EPA per Rush allowed and Rush Success Rate. The Wildcats’ weakness is in pass coverage, but Michigan’s lackluster receivers and weak quarterbacks are unlikely to take advantage.
Can the Wildcats Still Go Bowling?
Northwestern may be 4-6, but they can still make a bowl game by winning their last two games with Illinois up next. The Wildcats have been held back by ranking 130th in total offense, basically undoing some fine work by the defense.
Speaking of the defense, it should be even better this week with the expected return of two key members. Cornerback Theran Johnson, who leads the Big Ten in passes defended, and run-stuffing linebacker Xander Mueller are both expected back, which should mean more struggles for the Michigan offense.
The Pick
While we understand that the Northwestern offense is a concern, we do not think Michigan’s offense is much better and the good Wildcats’ defense is getting healthier. Add in the potential lookahead by the Wolverines to Ohio State and take the big points with the underdogs here.
Predicted Score: Michigan 23 – Northwestern 20
NCAAF Pick: Northwestern +10.5 (-114) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
