Top NCAAF Pick: San Diego State +5 (-105) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
We have reached the last full slate of matchups for the 2023 College Football season with Championship Week looming next week, and we have three last-minute value bets for Saturday.
These are value-based bets based on our proprietary model, many of which are underdogs. Such is the case with all three plays on Saturday, with the added benefit of the dogs having favorable situational spots in all of them, taking an attractive position on the best offshore sportsbooks.
Miami Ohio RedHawks vs. Ball State Cardinals
Saturday, November 25, 2023 – 12:00 PM ET at Scheumann Stadium
We are taking the points with Ball State at home in an expected low-scoring game on Saturday, in fact calling for an upset against a Miami Ohio team with bigger things on tap next week.
Looking to MAC Championship
The RedHawks are 9-2 and locked into the MAC Championship game vs. Toledo next week, rendering this game meaningless. Furthermore, they lost starting quarterback Brett Gabbert for the season and their top receiver Gage Larvadain missed last week with a hamstring injury, so Miami could very well restrict the minutes of their starters on this game, if not sit some entirely.
And even a fully healthy and motivated RedHawks team would be a dicey proposition laying points on the road due to limited scoring potential, as this is a team ranked 97th in the country in total offense and 113th in passing offense, with the latter now expected to take a further hit with a backup quarterback.
Solid Defense
Meanwhile, the Cardinals are solid defensively ranking a stout 26th nationally in total defense, 24th in rushing defense, and 36th in passing defense, so we feel they can shut down a Miami team with a backup quarterback and, perhaps, some other starters seeing limited to no action.
As you might expect with a highly rated defense but just a 4-7 record, Ball State struggles offensively averaging only 18.5 points per game while ranking 127th in total offense, so the very low posted total for this game is no surprise. However, the Cardinals have been playing better lately, in fact coming in on a 5-game ATS winning streak while going 3-2 straight up in those games.
The Pick
A total in the 30s gives inherent value to underdogs of over a field goal, so with that compounded by Ball State’s nice ATS run, and Miami’s probable disinterest in this game, bet the Cardinals in a possible upset.
Predicted Score: Ball State 17 – Miami Ohio 16
NCAAF Pick: Ball State +4.5 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Auburn Tigers
Saturday, November 25, 2023 – 03:30 PM ET at Jordan-Hare Stadium
The Iron Bowl does not mean too much to Alabama this year with the SEC Championship against top-ranked and undefeated Georgia up next, so we are taking the points with Auburn at an inflated number.
Not a Typical Iron Bowl
Normally both teams get up for this game, but that may not be the case for Alabama this year with the Georgia showdown for the SEC title up next. While this is not the first time the Crimson Tide have played the Iron Bowl and the SEC Championship in consecutive weeks, this year is different because they will be underdogs in that game against the undefeated number-one team in the country.
So, with that combined with Auburn losing at home by 21 points to New Mexico State last week, we fully expect Nick Saban and his staff to begin early game-planning for Georgia this week, as they realize they can win this contest with minimal effort.
House of Horrors
While that may or may not be true, remember that Jordan Hare Stadium has been a house of horrors for Alabama, going just 2-7 ATS and a shocking 4-5 straight up in the last nine Iron Bowls played here, despite having more talented squad most if not all those years.
Also, Auburn simply got caught looking ahead last week in a non-conference game against an improved New Mexico State team that is going to a bowl game this year, so, similar to Alabama’s situation with Georgia next week, the Tigers started thinking about this game last week. And let us not forget that Auburn gave Georgia one of their stiffest battles this year, losing only 27-20 in this stadium.
The Pick
If the Tigers can get up enough to lose by only seven to Georgia, we see no reason why they cannot get up again to stay within 13 points of Alabama after seemingly preparing for two weeks, given last week’s effort (or lack thereof). So take the points.
Predicted Score: Alabama 28 – Auburn 24
NCAAF Pick: Auburn +13 (-108) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
Fresno State Bulldogs vs. San Diego State Aztecs
Saturday, November 25, 2023 – 10:30 PM ET at Snapdragon Stadium
This contest has situational angles on both sides, with favored Fresno State demoralized by being knocked out of Mountain West contention by lowly New Mexico. Meanwhile, San Diego State wants to send their retiring beloved coach off on a winning note, so take the Aztecs to upset.
Shocking Upset
Fresno State began this season 8-1 and controlled their own destiny for a berth in the Mountain West Championship Game, but the Bulldogs then lost on the road to a good San Jose State team before being shocked at home 25-17 by New Mexico as a 23-point favorite last week, eliminating them from MWC contention. So going from 8-1 to having nothing to play for in the season finale in a span of two weeks must be gutting for them.
Besides, Fresno State was rather fortunate during their hot start with five of their eight wins being by one possession, including an overtime three-point win over an FCS opponent in Eastern Washington. Furthermore, the Bulldogs are a one-dimensional passing team due to their inability to run the football, ranking 121st in rushing offense on a putrid 3.4 YPC, meaning they can’t take advantage of the Aztecs’ defensive weakness.
Fond Farewell
San Diego State has had a disappointing season at 3-8, but this will be an emotional game for the Aztecs at home with long-time beloved coach Brady Hoke retiring after this contest, so one can expect a maximum effort here. Besides, SDSU has played the much tougher schedule between these teams, with the likes of UCLA, Oregon State, and Air Force decimating the Aztecs on the ground.
That helps account for SDSU ranking 98th in the nation in rushing defense and 111th in yards per carry allowed at a hefty 4.8. But as mentioned above, Fresno lacks the running attack to take advantage, and in San Diego State’s other five losses vs. less potent rushing offenses, four were by one possession.
The Pick
So, with Fresno State probably in a poor emotional state and unable to run the football, look for the more emotionally charged San Diego State team so send Coach Hoke off with an upset victory.
Predicted Score: San Diego State 24 – Fresno State 21
NCAAF Pick: San Diego State +5 (-105) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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