College Football Week 14 Best Bets: Commodores to Cover as Large Dogs Again
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LT Profits
- November 29, 2024
Top NCAAF Pick: Vanderbilt +10.5 (-105) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
We are a nice 16-7-1 over the last eight weeks and we have now reached Week 14, which is the final week of the 2024 College Football season with Championship Week up next.
And while it is Friday, that does not mean that there is still no value to be found for this final regular Saturday card. We are here with three plays we feel all have betting value based mostly on our proprietary model at the current NCAAF odds.
And if you’re looking for more value picks, take a look at our YouTube channel for some advice on the South Carolina vs. Clemson and Notre Dame vs. USC games.
Tennessee Volunteers vs. Vanderbilt Commodores
Saturday, November 30, 2024 – 12:00 PM ET at FirstBank Stadium
Vanderbilt has flourished in the role of double-digit underdogs this season, and we expect more of the same this week. We are taking the boatload of points at home with the Commodores hosting their biggest rivals from Tennessee.
Time-Consuming Drives
Vanderbilt is already bowl eligible at 6-5, but they have lost two straight and would love nothing better than to get back on track by putting a dent in their rival’s College Football Playoff hopes here. And after covering as 10-point underdogs in a 24-17 loss at LSU last week, Vandy is now 6-0 ATS this season as a double-digit underdog including outright upsets of Alabama, Kentucky and Virginia Tech, and a narrow three-point loss to Texas.
Most importantly, there is a valid reason why the Commodores are always dangerous as huge underdogs, as they have adapted a military-style run-heavy offense. This has resulted in more time-consuming drives as they are averaging 142.1 rushing yards per game while at the same time ranking just 108th in passing offense. So obviously, they have been able to control Time of Possession, and that slower pace means fewer possessions for their opponents.
It also helps that Vanderbilt should be the looser team here, which could mean a few wrinkles and trick plays.
Playoff Not Assured
Tennessee comes in at 9-2 and ranked eighth in the College Football Playoff Rankings, but they can’t afford a slip-up as a third loss would most likely knock them out of contention barring lots of help. And this is not a team without flaws, as the offensive line has some holes ranking just 83rd in pass blocking and 96th in run blocking per PFF.
Furthermore, both losses for the Volunteers have come in conference road games like this one where the offense has not performed well, scoring a combined 31 points. Tennessee struggled to run the ball well in both losses and now faces a Vanderbilt defense ranked 36th against the rush allowing 123.5 yards per game.
So, while Tennessee may desperately find a way to win this game on the field, it will not come easy, and we can easily see this contest going right down the wire. We are betting on Vandy to get to 7-0 ATS this season as double-digit dogs.
Predicted Score: Tennessee 26 – Vanderbilt 24
NCAAF Pick: Vanderbilt +10.5 (-105) at BetOnline
Oklahoma Sooners vs. LSU Tigers
Saturday, November 30, 2024 – 07:00 PM ET at Tiger Stadium
This is a prime letdown spot for Oklahoma after upsetting Alabama last week, and they now must visit one of the most hostile environments in the country that is Death Valley at night. We are betting on LSU laying less than a touchdown.
One Dimensional
Oklahoma took full advantage of a bye week preceding the Alabama game, with the extra preparation time producing a 24-3 triumph in an all-out effort as 13.5-point underdogs at home in Norman. That win put the Sooners at 6-5, which makes them bowl-eligible and could add to the letdown effect here with that goal achieved.
Emotional angles aside, this is a tough matchup stylistically for Oklahoma. They pulled the upset last week with 257 rushing yards while passing for only 68 yards. That has become a normal occurrence for a team that simply cannot throw the ball right now, as they have injuries to the receiving corps and an offensive line ranked 90th in pass blocking per PFF.
Yes, the defense was magnificent last week, but we do not expect the same energy from that unit after that effort.
Can Attack Downfield
LSU snapped a three-game losing streak by beating Vanderbilt 24-17 to improve to 7-4, and we expect an improved offensive showing here. That is because the Oklahoma defense is more vulnerable against the pass than against the run, ranking 85th in Coverage. That plays right into the strength of the Tigers’ offense.
That unit ranks seventh in the nation in passing offense at 317.7 yards per game, with quarterback Garrett Nussmeier completing 63.2% of his passes with 23 touchdown passes while averaging 7.0 yards per attempt. Granted Nussmeier lacks mobility, but he has a great offensive line protecting him that PFF ranks 25th in pass blocking.
LSU is fully capable of quick-strike scores with Nussmeier under center, and if the Tigers build a lead, Oklahoma is not equipped to come from behind, especially in Death Valley. Thus, we recommend giving the points with LSU on Saturday night.
Predicted Score: LSU 30 – Oklahoma 17
NCAAF Pick: LSU -5.5 (-111) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
Kansas State Wildcats vs Iowa State Cyclones
Saturday, November 30, 2024 – 07:30 PM ET at Jack Trice Stadium
This is a matchup where both teams’ strength on offense matches up well with each opponents’ weakness on defense. Therefore, we are supporting the Over when Kansas State visits Iowa State, with both teams having a mathematical chance to reach the Big 12 Championship Game.
Can Virtually Clinch Spot
Iowa State can virtually clinch a spot to play for the Big 12 championship with a win here, as there is only one combination of other results that will knock them out if they win. And we feel they will have no trouble scoring points with their vaunted passing attack against a vulnerable Kansas State pass defense.
Quarterback Rocco Becht enters this contest with 2884 passing yards, meaning he should have his second straight 3000-yard season by game’s end. And his dynamic duo of receivers in Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel may both top 1000 receiving yards, with Higgins already there and Noel sitting at 976 yards.
That unit is going up against a Kansas State defense ranked 90th in passing defense, 75th in yards per pass attempt allowed 93rd in Coverage per PFF.
Can Run All Day
Kansas State is less likely to make the Big 12 Championship Game as a lot needs to happen for them even if they win. Nonetheless, this is also a favorable matchup for them for the opposite reason, as they are one of the best running teams in the country.
The Wildcats are 16th nationally in rushing at 210.0 yards per game and fourth in yards per rush at a potent 6.0! They are led by DJ Giddens, who is approaching 1300 rushing yards for the season, but they have a deep backfield that includes Dylan Edwards (345 yards, 6.2 yards per carry) and Avery Johnson (484, 5.4).
That unit will be running against an Iowa State defense ranked 100th defending the run and 112th in yards per rush allowed at a generous 5.1.
So, we expect a barnburner here, with each team basically doing whatever it wants offensively in a game that could come down to the last possession. This has us betting on the Over in Ames on Saturday.
Predicted Score: Kansas State 35 – Iowa State 34
NCCAF Pick: Over 51.5 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
