College Football Week 2 Best Bets: Mountaineers Find Trail to Cover
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LT Profits
- September 7, 2024
Top NCAAF Pick: Appalachian State +17 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
We have reached Week 2 of the 2014 College Football Season, and although it is Friday, there is still value to be found on Saturday. We are here with the three plays that, according to the NCAAF odds, we feel all have betting value at top-rated sportsbooks.
These value bets are based mostly on our proprietary model, which points to a total in the Western Michigan vs. Ohio State matchup on Saturday.
Western Michigan Broncos vs. Ohio State Buckeyes
Saturday, September 07, 2024 – 07:30 PM ET at Ohio Stadium
Ohio State is a certified national championship contender this season. But while we have no interest in laying the enormous point spread on Saturday against Western Michigan, we are banking on both teams to do enough to clear this Over.
Can Approach Total Themselves
Ohio State comes in ranked fourth overall on the PFF Power Ratings, as well as #2 on the AP Poll. The Buckeyes opened with a 52-6 rout over Akron in a game where they sleepwalked to a 17-3 halftime lead before outscoring the Zips 35-3 in the second half. They won the yardage battle handily 404-177 while displaying nice balance offensively.
They dominated on the ground with 170 rushing yards on 23 carries, earning an 81.6 run rating on PFF to rank 14th nationally after one week. That running game was complimented by quarterback Will Howard completing 17-of-28 passes with two touchdowns and just one turnover-worthy pass. Also, freshman 5-Star recruit Jeremiah Smith looked like the real deal while being on the receiving end of both touchdowns, finishing with six catches for 92 yards.
Given that the Buckeyes figure to be more attentive from the start facing a better MAC team this week, they may be capable of approaching this posted total by themselves.
May Not Need Much
If we are correct about our assessment of the Ohio State offense, then Western Michigan would not need to score too much to clear this Over. And remember that the Broncos threw a scare into Wisconsin in Madison, holding the lead in the fourth quarter before losing their opener 28-14.
The Broncos figure to be better offensively in their second season under Coach Lance Taylor, and that offense was already better in its first season under Taylor than in the previous regime. WMU may have the best offensive line in the MAC headed by center Jacob Gideon, and that line opened up enough holes for running back Jalen Buckley to rush for 64 yards on 16 carries against the Badgers.
That was a positive 2024 start for Buckley after running for 1003 yards last year.
The Pick
While we do not think that WMU can keep pace on the scoreboard here, we also do not think their offense will be totally stifled either, especially with the potential for late garbage time. This has us betting the Over in Columbus.
Predicted Score: Ohio State 48 – Western Michigan 16
NCAAF Pick: Over 54 (-105) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
Tennessee Volunteers vs. North Carolina State Wolfpack
Saturday, September 07, 2024 – 07:30 PM ET at Bank of America Stadium
In a matchup of two AP Top 25 teams, we feel that this line has gotten out of hand and are betting on North Carolina State catching double digits against Tennessee.
Overreaction?
The look-ahead line for this game was Tennessee -5.5, but now that number has shot up to -10 based on the opening performances of each team against FCS opponents. And while we understand that the Volunteers looked dominant, that still seems excessive given NC State may have intentionally held back a bit and figured to get most of the crowd support at a “neutral” site in Charlotte.
The Vols blew away Chattanooga 69-3, moving them up to #14 on the AP Poll, although they are a touch lower on the PFF Power Rankings at *18. And we concede they may have had the best performance of any team last week, with Tennessee amassing 718 total yards while conceding 227.
However, there was one negative with that being the defensive secondary. That figured to be the weakest spot of the Tennessee team entering 2024 and the unit drew a modest Coverage Rating of 65.5 on PFF in the blowout.
Better Showing Expected
NC State, ranked #24 by the AP, also opened with an FCS opponent in Western Carolina. And they had a tougher time as they trailed 21-17 before a 21-0 fourth quarter propelled the Wolfpack to a 38-21 win. However, with Tennessee on deck, we would not be surprised if the Pack were intentionally vanilla most of the game facing an FCS foe, and to their credit, they did flip the switch late with a dominant final stanza.
We expect to see more of that offense from start to finish here, and they have the pieces to exploit the suspect Tennessee secondary. In fact, the Wolfpack should be vastly improved in all areas offensively over last year with upgrades at all the skill positions including tight end. New quarterback, Coastal Carolina transfer Grayson McCall, may be their best signal-caller since the days of Philip Rivers.
He passed for 318 yards in his NC State debut while getting his prime receiving targets Kevin Concepcion (nine catches, 121 yards) and Justin Joly (five catches, 75 yards) both involved.
The Pick
In a nutshell, as dominant as Tennessee was last week, we cannot justify this line move against an offense capable of exposing the Volunteers’ secondary. Take the big points with NC State.
Predicted Score: Tennessee 35 – NC State 31
NCAAF Pick: North Carolina State +10 (-107) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Appalachian State Mountaineers vs. Clemson Tigers
Saturday, September 07, 2024 – 08:00 PM ET at Memorial Stadium
Clemson was blown out 34-3 by #1 Georgia in their season opener, and while they are stepping down in class here, we are still backing Appalachian State to stay inside this big number.
Are Glory Days Over?
Now, we totally get that Georgia can make any team look bad, but few people could have forecasted last week’s final margin. And there were already some questions entering the season about an offense that scored 20 points or less five times last season. Remember also that Coach Dabo Sweeney is not a fan of the transfer portal, so outside of star recruit wide receiver TJ Moore, any more improvement would need to come from experience.
The offensive line struggled last season, and while quarterback Cade Klubnik was decent passing for 2,844 yards, the pressure due to leaky pass protection led to Clemson ranking dead last in the ACC in yards per completion. With no help from the portal, the Tigers are relying on Moore to add some explosiveness to the receiving corps. But that may not matter if the offensive line does not give Klubnik more time.
The news is not great on defense either with Xavier Thomas, Tyler Davis, Ruke Orhorhoro, and Justin Mascoll all gone. Yes, the Tigers had nice depth on the front seven, so they all have quality replacements, but we still consider the unit a downgrade.
Capable Offense
Appalachian State opened with an FCS foe and took care of business, hammering East Tennessee State 38-10 while accumulating an even 500 yards of total offense. Granted, ETSU in no way prepared them for Clemson, but as mentioned, they are not facing the Tigers of the recent past, and we do think that the Mountaineers have enough talent to hang here.
Interestingly, the App State running game garnered a run rating of 74.3 from PFF last week while the Clemson rating for defending the run with their revamped front seven garnered only a 58.9. Moreover, Mounties quarterback Joey Aguilar completed 22 of 36 passes for 326 yards.
The Pick
While we totally get the class differences in each team’s opponent last week, we still think this is a big number to ask a Clemson team past its Glory Days to cover. Look for the good Appalachian State offense to do enough to cover this spread.
Predicted Score: Clemson 31 – Appalachian State 23
NCAAF Pick: Appalachian State +17 (-108) at Heritage Sports
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
