Table of Contents
College Football Week 2 Best Bets: The Hokies Have Been Home-Sick
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Rainman M.
- September 7, 2024
Table of Contents
Top NCAAF Pick
Virginia Tech -17 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
The top sportsbooks have released their NCAAF odds for next Saturday’s college football action, and the matchups are looking even more intense as we head into Week 2.
Four games interest me as worth investing in: Georgia Tech vs. Syracuse, Marshall vs. Virginia Tech, Michigan State vs. Maryland, and Tennessee vs. NC State.
For your best bets, I will recommend investing in Syracuse, Virginia Tech, and a Maryland & Tennessee money-line parlay.
And if you’re looking for more value picks, make sure to take a look at our YouTube channel for more daily betting advice. Today, our expert has advice on the Bowling Green vs. Penn State and Colorado vs. Nebraska games.
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Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets vs. Syracuse Orange
Saturday, September 07, 2024 – 12:00 PM ET at JMA Wireless Dome
Assessing Georgia Tech’s Run Defense
It is easy to overrate Georgia Tech’s run defense after its success in Week 1. It is true that the Seminoles, whose offensive line and running back group received much hype before the start of the season, averaged all of 3.2 YPC and failed to reach 100 rushing yards against Georgia Tech’s run defense.
But we need to consider how this happened. Florida State began the game with a seven-play, 75-yard touchdown drive.
Did the Seminoles rely on throwing the ball? No, they actually ran the ball five times, showing what a competent ground game can accomplish against Georgia Tech’s run defense.
What happened afterward was that Georgia Tech “cheated” against the run by positioning its defenders closer to the line of scrimmage and generally by focusing more on stopping the run.
There are two takeaways here: one, Florida State underperformed in several respects, including its front seven on defense. Its offensive line underperformed as well, inflating our perception of the quality of Georgia Tech’s run defense.
Two, run defenses are able to look a lot better than they are when they don’t have to worry about the other quarterback’s capacity to throw the ball beyond the line of scrimmage.
Kyle McCord
It will be key for Syracuse to have a quarterback who can keep Georgia Tech’s run defense honest.
Last year, when their starting quarterback suffered a tough injury, the Orange did not have this quarterback. So, many of their box scores look very ugly, including their nine-point loss at Georgia Tech when they started a tight end at quarterback who threw for 59 yards.
Syracuse has made a major upgrade at quarterback by bringing in Kyle McCord, a Third-Team All-Big Ten selection from Ohio State. McCord was very efficient and productive as a Buckeye last year.
He displayed those qualities in Syracuse’s home-opening win last Saturday in which he matched his season average in YPA from last year, 9.1, completed nearly 70 percent of his passes, and threw for 354 yards with four touchdowns and one interception.
Supporting Cast
Georgia Tech ranked 130th in run defense last year and can only be expected to have improved so much in one year.
Syracuse’s current starting running back ran for 120 yards against this defense. McCord’s pass-catching crew includes guys who had their seasons shortened last year after thriving in 2022.
Oronde Gadsden II led all tight ends in that year with 969 yards. At wide receiver, Trebor Pena is looking to deliver on the promise that he showed in 2022.
The wide receiver group has a burgeoning depth that Florida State’s pass-catching crew, emaciated by departures, could not replicate. On the other side, the Yellow Jackets have question marks after their top cornerback position.
Syracuse’s Defense
The Orange remain strong in the secondary after earning the 31st-best coverage grade last season as a team. Key safeties and cornerbacks return for them.
They also get back Duce Chestnut, a physical cornerback who had transferred to LSU after playing for them. Chestnut is a two-time All-ACC selection.
This is a deep and high-quality secondary that is supported by the pass-rushing prowess of Fadil Diggs, who collected two sacks last week.
Syracuse has a stronger pass defense than the one that limited Georgia Tech’s quarterback to 138 passing yards last year.
The Big Question
After last week’s win over Ohio, Syracuse’s run defense inspires doubts.
Now, even if Georgia Tech were to amass a lot of rushing yards, this doesn’t mean much without a strong passing attack. Last season, for example, the Yellow Jackets scored only 23 points against Boston College despite rushing for 248 rushing yards.
Syracuse’s rush defense was statistically average last year, but it looked a lot worse in Week 1 of this season. Week 1, though, is Week 1: it’s the first game of the season.
We saw low-effort tackling, guys being out of position from being in a new defensive scheme, and complacency in a bend-but-don’t-break mindset.
Above all, we saw vanilla play-calling and, as the coach observed, players not doing what they had been doing in practice.
Expect the run defense to grow decisively. We already saw the defense tighten up in the red zone. They’ll become more consistent, but, of course, giving up a lot of yards really doesn’t matter when the red zone defense is stout.
Takeaway
Syracuse lost by nine while scoring 22 points, on the road in Georgia Tech last year while its tight end played quarterback.
The quarterback and wide receiver units will look tremendously better in this rematch, enabling Syracuse to exceed 30 points.
On defense, a stronger pass defense will limit Georgia Tech’s offensive potential, while its run defense is primed to improve.
NCAAF Pick: Syracuse +2.5 (+100) at BetOnline
Marshall Thundering Herd vs. Virginia Tech Hokies
Saturday, September 07, 2024 – 04:30 PM ET at Lane Stadium
Understanding Situations
Last week, people were hyping up Virginia Tech because its returning personnel created a lot of justifiable promises. Now people are down on Virginia Tech because they don’t understand the importance of betting situations.
The Hokies lost their season opener, and they were going to lose it regardless of how good their returning personnel truly were.
This is a Brent Pry thing: the Hokies under his leadership always underperform tremendously in their road opener.
In Pry’s first season, the Hokies suffered an embarrassing loss at Old Dominion.
Last year, Virginia Tech was blown out by middling Rutgers. This year, the Hokies were upset at Vanderbilt.
The key here is not to lose any confidence in Virginia Tech’s returning personnel.
This Week’s Situation
The situation for Brent Pry’s Virginia Tech is just as positive this week as it was negative last week. This is because the Hokies have their home opener. Brent Pry’s Hokies thrive in this situation.
Two years ago, the Hokies were -2.5 points favorites against Boston College and won by 17. Last season, the Hokies beat Old Dominion by 19 – again covering the spread – after losing to this same team one year ago.
The Hokies get to avenge their 24-17 loss at Marshall last year.
Again, a key here is that the game was at Marshall. The Hokies had just lost badly at Rutgers and required time to figure out how to win on the road.
Hokies’ Offense
This Hokies offense will be significantly better. Last season, Kyron Drones’ quarterback rating was 40 points higher at home than on the road. The dual-threat quarterback will get to throw to his top-four wide receivers from last year.
He’ll be supported by an offensive line that returns all its members after improving significantly over the course of the season and by the top two running backs from last season.
Marshall’s defense also lost key pieces to the transfer portal – valuable parts of the defensive line, linebacker, and secondary groups – without restocking. This unit, when it was better last year, ranked 88th in scoring.
Marshall’s Questions at QB and RB
The Thundering Herd have unproven pieces at quarterback. This is bad news when facing a Hokies pass defense that ranked fourth last year and improves its pass rush with the addition of an All-ACC defensive lineman.
In last year’s win, Marshall relied on its star running back, who is now in the NFL.
Virginia Tech’s run defense this year will anyhow be better with the addition of All-Conference USA Second Team selection Sam Brumfield, who immediately occupied a leadership role during the offseason and will improve the Hokies’ linebacking group.
Takeaway
Virginia Tech will avenge last year’s loss and continue its success in home openers.
The Hokies’ offense will look much improved with Drones playing at home and with the group facing a weakened Marshall defense.
The Thundering Herd allowed over 30 points per game on the road last year and, with its regressed defense, will struggle more than usual facing Virginia Tech’s offense.
Marshall’s pass attack will be completely outmatched and it won’t have the advantage on the ground, that it did last year, to rely upon.
Last year, Marshall scored just over 18 points per game on the road and currently lacks the proven pieces to handle such a uniquely stifling pass defense or to pose a threat on the ground.
NCAAF Pick: Virginia Tech -17 (-110) at BetOnline
Michigan State Spartans vs. Maryland Terrapins
Saturday, September 07, 2024 – 03:30 PM ET at SECU Stadium
Michigan State’s Week 1 Performance
I always talk about not overreacting to season openers, but Michigan State’s case is different because the Spartans, who barely scraped by heavy underdog Florida Atlantic, confirmed a lot of worries that I already had going into the season.
Quarterback Aidan Chiles, in Week 1, failed to complete half his passes and mustered 114 passing yards.
I was already down on him before that dud of a performance because he is a transfer from Oregon State where he failed to beat out DJ Uiagalelei for the starting quarterback position – Uiagalelei is an inaccurate quarterback who lacks the confidence to throw the ball past the line of scrimmage.
In Week 1, Chiles’ wide receivers also did not help him out: they struggled to gain separation from opposing defensive backs.
Run-blocking was also already a concern for Michigan State, which underwent an overhaul at the offensive line with four departures, and its starting running back mustered 2.5 YPC against Florida Atlantic.
The takeaway here is that Michigan State’s offense looks anemic.
Maryland Can Score
The difference here is simple: Michigan State cannot score much, whereas Maryland can.
Michigan State, whose departures caused their defensive line to grow weaker in the offseason, has continual concerns at the cornerback position.
This is a group that ranked 98th in pass defense last year but merely wasn’t tested by Florida Atlantic’s low-talent pass attack.
Maryland has a well-rounded offense with the efficient Roman Hemby heading a deep running back group, but it’s primarily the pass attack that will launch the Terps past Michigan State with the latter’s annually porous pass defense.
Billy Edwards Jr., in the season opener, looked comfortable as Maryland’s starting quarterback, as he surprised naysayers with his vastly improved efficiency.
Whereas Michigan State lacks the wide receivers to create separation for his quarterback, Maryland has those wide receivers in the form of Kaden Prather, who averaged 15.9 yards per catch last year, and Tai Felton, who accrued 723 receiving yards last season.
Phil Steele placed both wide receivers on the preseason All-Big Ten Second Team.
Parlay Leg 1: Maryland ML (-390) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
Tennessee Volunteers vs. NC State Wolfpack
Saturday, September 07, 2024 – 07:30 PM ET at Bank of America Stadium
Tennessee’s New Quarterback
Tennessee’s offense is going to be elite this year. Yes, its Week 1 opponent was soft, but 718 total yards is telling.
At quarterback, Nico Iamaleava was a five-star, overall number-one recruit who is approaching his potential.
He already delivered an efficient performance in last year’s bowl game, in which Tennessee beat Iowa 35-0.
His Week 1 performance showed the fruits of his continued time learning an offense that ranked number one in 2022 and then dropped off to a still high-caliber 28th last season.
The key here is for the Volunteers to develop the quality in the passing game that they lacked last year when the big plays were missing and the general rapport between quarterback and wide receiver were insufficient.
Their upgrade at quarterback is tremendously significant. The talent at wide receiver is already there: Bru McCoy, a valuable contributor in 2022 who missed a lot of time last year, is back, and a deep group joins him.
Look out also for speedy sprinter Squirrel White, who is a big-play threat, and the more well-sized Dont’e Thornton, who is expected to be an early-round NFL Draft selection.
A veteran-laden offensive line with great chemistry will support this pass attack, which will be balanced by a running back group led by Dylan Sampson with his 6.4 career YPC.
NC State’s Regressed Defense
As evident in its loss to Notre Dame last year, when the Irish scored 45 points, NC State lacked the pieces on defense to stand up to high-caliber offenses and, in general, to good offenses outside of the ACC.
The Wolfpack defense will also regress this year thanks to the departure of valuable starters on the defensive line and its defensive leader.
Lack of Firepower
With the Wolfpack defensive-minded head coach NC State, it’s hard to like them when you don’t like their defense.
NC State simply doesn’t have the firepower to keep up with the Vols. A somewhat below-average offense last year, it relied too much on a single wide receiver.
While much is made by NC State backers of its new youth, Tennessee rejuvenated its secondary with talented youth of its own – such as preseason All-American Boo Carter – experienced returning pieces and key transfers.
This key transfer is cornerback Jermod McCoy, who was a Freshman All-American selection last year.
Moreover, the Tennessee defensive line will dominate. It is a very deep group – which can rotate in many fresh and talented bodies – led by star power in the form of James Pearce Jr., who registered 9.5 sacks last year.
Its defensive line helped Tennessee form one of the nation’s top run defenses last year and is overall simply much more talented and proven than what NC State has to offer against it.
Takeaway
Maryland and Tennessee will win because they have the firepower on offense that their respective opponents lack. Their opponents also lack the necessary pieces on defense to remain competitive.
Parlay Leg 2: Tennessee ML (-185) at Bovada
The NCAAF Parlay
- Maryland ML (-390)
- Tennessee ML (-185)
NCAAF Pick: Two-Legged Parlay (-107) at Bovada
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
