Top NCAAF Pick: Texas Tech +7 (-115) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
With the best betting odds for college football available at the top sportsbooks, three games interest me: Notre Dame vs. NC State, Cincinnati vs. Pittsburgh, and Oregon vs. Texas Tech.
For your best bets, I will recommend investing in the underdogs, as the Wolfpack, Bearcats, and Red Raiders are ready to achieve an upset victory.
Personally, I like to invest three-quarters of a unit in a given underdog to cover the spread. Then, I sprinkle the remaining quarter on the underdog ML.
Oregon Ducks vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders
Saturday, September 9, 2023 – 07:00 PM EDT at Jones AT&T Stadium
Oregon’s Pass Defense
Last year, the Ducks allowed 270.5 passing yards per game, positioning their pass defense at 110th nationally.
Things will only get worse this year after their top cornerback, who was selected in the first round of the NFL Draft, departed. Plus, Oregon’s pass rush was similarly deficient last year.
Its minimal injection of new blood and returning healthier plays suggests that the Ducks’ secondary will continue to fail to receive support from their pass rush.
Texas Tech’s Loaded Offense
The Red Raiders enjoy tremendous returning talent with which to exploit the vulnerable Ducks’ secondary.
Most notable are wide receivers Jerand Bradley, a Preseason All-Big 12 selection, and Myles Price, an All-Big 12 honorable mention.
They have a veteran quarterback throwing to them and they return their leading rusher to keep the defense honest.
Hope for Red Raiders’ Defense
Especially after last week, although the FCS’s Portland State is not a respectable opponent, Oregon’s defense receives a lot of love. But against a competent team, the Ducks’ loss of four starting offensive linemen will become visibly significant.
Quarterback Bo Nix especially had relied on his ability to avoid sacks, so this downgrade in his offensive line will create a unique challenge for him.
Texas Tech’s defense returns a lot of experience from a group that had more sacks than any other Big 12 team. Their two senior tackles in particular will help disrupt Oregon’s offensive rhythm and give the Red Raiders a defensive edge that Oregon lacks.
NCAAF Pick: Texas Tech +7 (-115) at BetOnline
NCAAF Pick: Texas Tech (+220) at BetOnline
Cincinnati Bearcats vs. Pittsburgh Panthers
Saturday, September 9, 2023 – 06:30 PM EDT at Acrisure Stadium
Coaching
Cincinnati skeptics will point to its downgrade at head coach. While Scott Satterfield is no Luke Fickell, this downgrade will not be apparent on Saturday, because Satterfield loves facing Pittsburgh.
Last year, as the head coach of Louisville, Satterfield led his team to a 24-10 win over Pat Narduzzi’s then-star-studded Panthers.
Cincinnati’s Defense
The Bearcats’ defense will be decisive in this game. Its defensive line will be solid: Nose tackle Dontay Corleone was PFF’s highest-graded defensive player.
Defensive ends Jowon Briggs and Malik Vann have 19 career sacks combined. The linebacking corps features havoc master Daniel Grzesiak.
After helping its team rank 15th-best nationally at limiting opposing passing, the secondary is led by returning veteran personnel.
Saturday’s test will be an easy one for the Bearcats.
Pitt quarterback Phil Jurkovec has a lot to prove after struggling severely last year. The Panthers miss their top running back and their star wide receiver from last year.
Overhauled Panthers’ Defense
Pittsburgh’s defense is in a transition year after losing six starters. One key loss was ACC Defensive Player of the Year Calijah Kancey.
With its defensive prowess, Cincinnati will not have to do too much on offense against the Panthers’ overhauled group.
NCAAF Pick: Cincinnati (+250) at BetOnline
NCAAF Pick: Cincinnati +7.5 (-115) at BetOnline
Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. NC State Wolfpack
Saturday, September 9, 2023 – 12:00 PM EDT at Wayne Day Family Field at Carter-Finley Stadium
Notre Dame’s “Impressive” Start
As evident in the changes to the Fighting Irish spread and moneyline, bettors have a lot of confidence in Notre Dame.
This confidence stems from watching the Irish blow out their first two opponents, but one should resist this optimism because it is premature.
Navy, which was Notre Dame’s first opponent, features a triple-option attack that the Fighting Irish normally only have a week to prepare for. This time, because Navy was their first opponent, they had all summer.
Tennessee State was Notre Dame’s other victim. Tennessee State, though, is an FCS school. All of this is to say that NC State is the sort of underdog that bettors could easily overlook and, given the odds in favor of Notre Dame, find value in.
Sam Hartman & Notre Dame’s Offense
One specific source of confidence in Notre Dame is quarterback Sam Hartman. While adding Hartman from Wake Forest brings a season-long upgrade to his team’s quarterback room, this will not be evident against NC State.
Historically, playing for an ACC rival of the Wolfpack, Hartman has struggled against the Wolfpack, completing 55% of his passes for 923 yards, throwing six touchdowns to six interceptions, and suffering a 1-2 record in three games against them.
With his 3-3-5 scheme, Tony Gibson was the defensive coordinator for NC State all three times, as he currently is. While a 3-3-5 might seem to be more equipped to defend against spread offenses, Gibson’s defense is annually one of the nation’s best at stopping the run.
Brennan Armstrong
Brennan Armstrong enjoys new scenery at NC State where he has already played under the current offensive coordinator and where he enjoys better surrounding talent – his offensive line at Virginia was awful and his wide receivers let him down with too many drops.
While he has accumulated sundry 400-yard passing performances, Armstrong’s key weapon is his legs. His 96-yard rushing total last week is not new for him.
While Notre Dame under defensive coordinator Al Golden was not tested much in this respect last year, his defense allowed too many big quarterback runs.
This problem with quarterbacks running was evident throughout the season, such as in its November game against USC.
Notre Dame’s defensive losses, most notably sack leader Isaiah Foskey, hardly inspire hope for improvement.
With Armstrong, NC State will show a stronger offense, in addition to its characteristically stout defense.
NCAAF Pick: NC State (+240) at BetOnline
NCAAF Pick: NC State +7.5 (-115) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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