College Football Week 3 Best Bets: Huskies to Bark Louder Than Cougars
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LT Profits
- September 13, 2024
Top NCAAF Pick: Washington -5 (-108) at Heritage Sports
We have reached Week 3 of the 2024 College Football Season, and although it is Friday, that does now mean there is not still value to be found on Saturday. We are here with the three plays we feel all have betting value at the current NCAAF odds, with most plays based on our proprietary model.
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And if you’re looking for more value picks, make sure to take a look at our YouTube channel for some advice on the Ball State vs. Miami and Colorado vs. Colorado State games.
Washington State Cougars vs. Washington Huskies
Saturday, September 14, 2024 – 03:30 PM ET at Lumen Field
Washington and Washington State may now be in different conferences, but their Apple Cup rivalry does continue this week, where we are backing the Huskies to prevail in Seattle.
Rebuild Looks Go So Far
This is not the same Washington team that was undefeated last season before losing to Michigan in the National Championship Game. This team returns just six starters, and also has a new head coach in Jedd Fisch, yet the early returns look promising at 2-0.
Yes, those wins came over Weber State and Eastern Michigan, but their totally new offensive line has been dominant thus far. And even with the rise in class in competition, they are still facing a Washington State defensive line ranked just 111th nationally in pass-rush grade per PFF, so we expect the line to again hold up well.
That great line play has allowed new quarterback Will Rogers to complete 78.8% of his passes so far with five touchdown passes in two games without an interception. Running back Jonah Coleman has followed Coach Fisch to Washington from Arizona and he has rushed for 231 yards in two games on an eye-popping 8.6 YPC. And speaking of Fisch, he coached Arizona to a 44-6 win over Washington State last season.
Deceiving Score Last Week
Washington State is also 2-0, and after opening the season with an expected romp over Portland State, they then recorded the best win to date on paper for either team 37-16 over Texas Tech. However, that score was not as it seems, as the Cougars benefitted from four Tech turnovers and allowed 343 passing yards.
Given the big edge the Huskies’ offensive line has over the Cougars’ defensive line, we expect Rogers to have similar success here. On the other side of the ball, WSU quarterback John Mateer rushed for 197 yards last week, but he has not shown much as a passer completing only 55.6% of his passes with just one big-time throw per PFF.
We think that Washington will continue to succeed even with the step up due to its great offensive line play. Meanwhile, we do not think that what has been a one-dimensional rushing attack for State will cut it in this spot, so give the points with the Huskies.
Predicted Score: Washington 34 – Washington State 23
NCAAF Pick: Washington -5 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
Vanderbilt Commodores vs. Georgia State Panthers
Saturday, September 14, 2024 – 07:00 PM ET at Center Parc Stadium
In a matchup between the mighty SEC and the smaller Sun Belt Conference, we are betting on the upstarts from Georgia State at home to give Vanderbilt a fight and we’re taking the points.
Lookahead Spot?
Vanderbilt is off to a 2-0 start, upsetting Virginia Tech in their opening game at home before taking care of Alcorn State of the FCS as expected 55-0 last week. And the Commodores have an entirely new look offensively while resembling a military academy team, averaging 211.5 rushing yards and only 15 passing attempts per game thus far. That new look may have caught Virginia Tech off guard in the opener, contributing to the upset.
However, that constant running of the clock with so few passing plays should make Vandy vulnerable as heavy favorites as they are here. This is also a treacherous scheduling spot for them. Besides this being their first road game of the year, it also looks like a prime lookahead spot with their next two games against Missouri and Alabama to kick off SEC play.
Should a complacent start lead to falling behind, this type of offense does not seem equipped for comeback mode.
Competitive vs. Georgia Tech
Georgia State comes in at 1-1, beating only an FCS school in Chattanooga last week. However, their 35-12 loss against Georgia Tech was not as bad as the score indicates, as the Panthers were done in by scoring only one field goal in three occasions where they had first-and-goal. Their quarterback Christian Veilleux passed for 210 yards against a good pass defense without an interception.
Veilleux has experience against power-conference defenses have previously played at Penn State and Pittsburgh. And while the Vanderbilt secondary has not been tested that much yet, PFF gives them a coverage rating of only 76.5 that ranks a mediocre 54th in the country. That should give Georgia State a chance to put up some points, provided they don’t keep squandering all their goal-to-go opportunities like vs. Ga Tech.
With Vanderbilt being a run-heavy team in a bad scheduling spot and with a mediocre secondary, we are taking the big points here with Georgia State in front of a supportive home crowd.
Predicted Score: Vanderbilt 24 – Georgia State 20
NCAAF Pick: Georgia State +10.5 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
UCF Knights vs. TCU Horned Frogs
Saturday, September 14, 2024 – 07:30 PM ET at Amon G. Carter Stadium
Florida coach Gus Malzahn has an offense that resembles his 2010 Auburn championship team, while the TCU offense has been stagnant against modest opponents. We are backing UFC on the road in this Big 12 opener.
Nice Transfers
UCF already had explosive running backs, and they added more playmakers by making great use of the transfer portal. Granted, they have had two scrimmages so far vs. New Hampshire and Sam Houston State. But nonetheless, they have the seventh-best overall rating in the country so far on PFF at 94.3 after outscoring them 102-17.
Arkansas transfer KJ Jefferson has been an immediate upgrade at quarterback while completing 65.5% of his passes and averaging a whopping 11.5 years per attempt, His presence adds balance to an offense that returned star running back RJ Harvey, who has six touchdowns and seven rushes of 15+ yards in two games. They also added great RB depth in Myles Montgomery and Peny Boone, who would each start for most teams.
And do not sleep on the defense under first-year coordinator Ted Roof, as that unit ranks 10th in the land on PFF in overall defensive rating at 89.3.
Can’t Establish Run
TCU is 2-0, but the Horned Frogs trailed much of the game against Stanford before beating an outclassed LIU team from the FCS. Most troubling has been their inability to establish the run, averaging a mere 3.2 yards per carry to rank 101st nationally. They even averaged only 3.4 YPC against LIU. If they are forced into a one-dimensional passing attack here, it would make things easier for a UCF secondary ranked a respectable 30th in coverage.
On the defensive side, the Horned Frogs are ninth in total defense at 203.0 yards per game, but their first two opponents in no way prepared them for this UCF offense. And the news is not all good defensively with TCU ranking 96th in Pass Success Rate allowed. That should mean continued success for Jefferson passing the ball, which could make the Knights’ running game practically unstoppable with the Frogs forced to respect the pass.
If TCU continues to have trouble running the football to add balance to their offense, we do not see them keeping pace with Central Florida offensively. Thus, we are batting UCF in a game listed close to a Pick’em.
Predicted Score: UCF 37 – TCU 27
NCAAF Pick: UCF +1.5 (-110) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
