NCAAF Pick: Florida State -27½ (-110) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
The oddsmakers post early lines for a reason and we like to see where they go so that we can take advantage of the underdogs that are getting too many points and the favorites laying too few.
We struck gold twice last week with Rice winning outright as a 10-point underdog and Notre Dame covering as 7-point favorites. Let’s scope out the lines at the offshore sportsbooks and make some more money this week in college football!
Washington Huskies vs. Michigan State Spartans
Saturday, September 16, 2023 – 05:00 PM EDT at Spartan Stadium
Key Facts
- Michigan State ranks No. 16 in the nation in points allowed, surrendering just 10.5 points per game.
- Michigan State running back, sophomore Nathan Carter, has 224 rushing yards and four touchdowns on a 6.1 yards per carry over his first two games.
- Washington ranks 114th in the nation in rushing, averaging just 93.5 yards per game.
Clash of Strengths
Let’s understand that Washington is a terrific team and a possible CFP entry. They are torching secondaries through the air which is why they are No. 1 in passing yards. However, their rushing attack is an afterthought, ranked 114th in the nation, but the aerial attack has been so prolific no one is talking about it. However, when a team becomes too predictable it can make it easier for the opposing defense to adjust.
And although it is early in the season, Michigan State is ranked 5th in the nation against the pass, allowing only 107 aerial yards per game, and will undoubtedly be a stiffer contest for the Huskies than they have faced thus far. That could be a major factor in this game and could allow the Spartans to keep it close.
The Pick
This line has skyrocketed from Washington -11½ to as high as -17 as of this writing. Of course, much of that has to do with head coach Mel Tucker getting suspended without pay for a sexual harassment allegation and a bevy of injuries to the Spartans, all of which are categorized as day-to-day.
The injuries concern me more than the loss of the coach, as there will be continuity in the locker room with his staff taking over but getting healthy players is a big concern. Nevertheless, the number we are getting on the Spartans is too tempting to ignore. Let’s grab the +17 and make that money.
NCAAF Pick: Michigan State +17 (-115) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
South Carolina Gamecocks vs. Georgia Bulldogs
Saturday, September 16, 2023 – 03:30 PM EDT at Sanford Stadium
Key Facts
- South Carolina is 3-3 ATS versus Georgia over their last three meetings
- South Carolina is ranked No. 3 in passing yards, averaging 408 yards per game.
- Georgia is ranked 93rd in rushing yards, averaging 129 yards per game.
Fading the Best
Make no mistake, it is never easy to fade the best team in the nation but this isn’t about emotion, it’s about getting the best numbers before they disappear. Yet, in this spot, we could actually see this number rise throughout the week as Georgia is a public team and the squares will blindly lay the lumber.
However, I have already seen this number climb from Georgia -24 to -27 over at BetOnline and I believe we’re getting terrific value with South Carolina. Although the Gamecocks lost 31-17 to North Carolina in their opener, they came out of their offensive shell last week when they throttled Furman, 47-21, and covered the 21-point impost.
The Gamecocks throw early and often with battle-tested quarterback Spencer Rattler under center. South Carolina will continue to throw against the Bulldogs and although they won’t have the same success as last week when they put up 463 yards and struck for five passing touchdowns, they should keep the chains moving and the clock ticking.
The Pick
Lastly, these teams have alternated ATS covers over their last six contests and if that pattern holds, the Gamecocks will be bringing home the cash.
NCAAF Pick: South Carolina +27 (-110) at BetOnline
Florida State Seminoles vs. Boston College Eagles
Saturday, September 16, 2023 – 12:00 PM EDT at Alumni Stadium
Key Facts
- Florida State is 9-1 straight up and 7-3 against the spread over their last 10 meetings with BC.
- Florida State is ranked No. 4 in scoring, averaging 55.5 points per game.
- BC Is 107th in the nation in passing, averaging just 184.5 yards per game.
Why Does the Line Movement Matter?
The line on this game opened at 28½ and although this article is being written on Sunday night, the number has already dropped half a point at many shops, although there are still a few offshore betting sites still hanging FSU -28½.
Yet, the oddsmakers over at Bookmaker are taking a stand and dipping to 27½ which doesn’t seem like much but getting under 28 points (four full touchdowns) can be critical.
And while the Seminoles are the chalky favorite that is apt to attract plenty of square money, they are also a much better team than the Eagles and consistently trounce the boys from Chestnut Hill as evidenced by their 9-0 SU and 7-3 ATS mark over their last 10 meetings.
Will History Repeat Itself?
Last year, the Noles defeated the Eagles, 44-14, and easily covered the number as 18-point home favorites. Yet, this time around the teams will meet at Boston College but I don’t suspect the results will be any different.
The Seminoles are ranked 3rd in the nation and have crushed their first two opponents while the Eagles have failed to take flight for their backers this season, sporting an 0-2 ATS mark against two inferior opponents.
The Pick
Following the NCAAF odds, let’s lay it and like it with FSU at a number we can tolerate.
NCAAF Pick: Florida State -27½ (-110) at Bookmaker
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
Calculators
