NCAAF Pick: Florida +7 (-120) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
With the best betting odds for Week 3 in college football here, three games particularly interest me: Kansas State vs. Missouri; Minnesota vs. North Carolina; and Tennessee vs. Florida.
For your best bets, I will recommend that you invest in all three underdogs: Missouri, Minnesota, and Florida.
I recommend investing three-quarters of your standard unit in the underdog ATS and the remaining quarter in the underdog ML.
Tennessee Volunteers vs. Florida Gators
Saturday, September 16, 2023 – 07:00 PM EDT at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium
Tennessee’s Run Game
It is easy to underappreciate the extent to which Tennessee’s offense lives and dies with the success of its rush attack, which is again led by running backs Jabari Small and Jaylen Wright.
Failure to run well keyed their worst offensive performances last year. Their lowest-scoring outputs came against Pittsburgh (27 points in regulation), Georgia (13 points), and Clemson (31 points).
In those games, they struggled to achieve good rushing outputs and to be efficient in terms of YPC.
Florida’s Run Defense
The Gators’ run defense will do the most to help Florida’s upset bid by limiting the Volunteers’ rush attack without sacrificing any ability to defend against Tennessee’s historically inaccurate and inconsistent quarterback Joe Milton.
Florida is able to rely on the strong linebacker play of Scooby Williams and Shemar James, who are profiting from the experience they gained stepping in for run-stopper Ventrell Miller.
The Gators also profit from their devotion, during the offseason, to using the transfer portal to strengthen their front seven. Right now, Florida is allowing a paltry 3.5 YPC.
Florida Offense’s Outlook
Last year, the Vols had one of the worst pass defenses.
The verdict remains out on whether their pass defense has improved, because, before facing FCS school Austin Peay last week, they faced a Virginia offense led by a transfer quarterback from New Hampshire and hampered by absolutely miserable offensive line play.
With a quarterback in Graham Mertz who’s shown significant ability in his career against weaker pass defenses, Florida can exploit the Vols’ pass defense, which still has so much work to do to improve upon its ranking last year of 128th.
The Gators also boast two running backs who average over six YCP, giving them an edge on the ground over Tennessee’s rush attack, in addition to their advantage in the air.
History
The Swamp is also simply a tough place to play, especially for the Vols. They haven’t won in the Gators’ venue since 2003.
NCAAF Pick: Florida +7 (-120) at BetOnline
NCAAF Pick: Florida (+205) at BetOnline
Minnesota Golden Gophers vs. North Carolina Tar Heels
Saturday, September 16, 2023 – 03:30 PM EDT at Kenan Stadium
North Carolina’s Rush Attack
For the Tar Heels, running the ball has been a relatively important means of offensive production. Nationally, they own the 30th-highest run play percentage and rank tenth in rushing yards per game.
They relied heavily on running the ball both to defeat South Carolina in their season-opener and to escape Appalachian State in their last game.
Facing A Stronger Test
To be clear, Tar Heels running backs obliterated the Appalachian State rush defense, although that game still went to overtime. Against lower-profile Appalachian State, the Tar Heels were able to do things that they won’t be able to do against Minnesota. They were simply able to gash Appalachian State up the middle repeatedly.
Tougher, up-the-middle running characterizes the current North Carolina running back group, which represents a departure from the speed-oriented group of previous years. This change is unfortunate in view of their matchup against a Golden Gophers defense that lacks the speed to keep up with guys like UNC’s former quick running backs.
Physically, in line with the Big Ten’s reputation for strength and physicality, Minnesota is dramatically more equipped than Appalachian State to handle the Tar Heels’ current 220-pound running backs.
For example, with the exception of one 27-yard run, the Golden Gophers held Nebraska’s Gabe Ervin Jr. in check.
Passing Comparison
North Carolina has had to replace its two leading wide receivers last year.
Its wide receiver group lacks sufficient returning talent against a Minnesota secondary that boasts cornerback Justin Walley, who was third-team All-Big Ten last year.
Minnesota’s advantage in the secondary will enable its pass attack to have the edge against a Tar Heels defense that, after giving up 219 rush yards to Appalachian State, will have to focus on containing Minnesota’s running back group.
Appalachian State’s quarterback approached 300 passing yards with the type of intermediate passing that Athan Kaliakmanis can improve upon for the Golden Gophers.
NCAAF Pick: Minnesota +7.5 (-110) at BetOnline
NCAAF Pick: Minnesota ML (+235) at BetOnline
Kansas State Wildcats vs. Missouri Tigers
Saturday, September 16, 2023 – 12:00 PM EDT at Memorial Stadium/Faurot Field
Concerns About Kansas State’s Offense
Scoring 87 points, as Kansas State has done through two games, might seem impressive. But let’s consider that the Wildcats’ first opponent was FCS team Southeast Missouri State.
Their second opponent was a Troy team that gave up 30 points to FCS school Stephen F. Austin. These two offensive outputs mask the significant loss of talent that the Wildcats’ offense experienced during the offseason, which will become apparent against any team with a pulse.
Specifically, the Wildcats lost a lot at the skill positions. Running back Deuce Vaughn, who amassed nearly 2,000 yards from scrimmage last year, is irreplaceable, and in addition to losing Vaughn, their top wide receiver departed. They lock proven depth at wide receiver.
Missouri’s Defense
Last year, the Tigers’ defense took a major step forward, as evident in its almost nine-point reduction in points allowed per game. They were particularly strong against the run, ranking 31st nationally in rushing yards allowed per game and becoming one of the best teams at achieving tackles for loss.
With their returning production (eight starters have come back), they are primed to build on this success.
This strength in run defense makes them match up well against a K-State offense that, although it can’t replace Vaughn, still wants to rely extensively on its running back group, especially while its wide receiver group is depleted.
Missouri Offense vs. K-State Defense
The Tigers return an experienced offensive line unit that ranked 44th, according to PFF, in run-blocking last year.
Whereas they improved with the addition of a Houston guard who was regarded as one of the top blockers in his conference last year, the Wildcats defensive line suffers for losing a key pass rusher to the Kansas City Chiefs.
Against a Wildcats’ run defense that was mediocre last year, Cody Schrader will continue averaging five yards a carry.
Where the Tigers will have the greatest edge, though, is with their efficient quarterback Brady Cook connecting especially with highly touted former recruit and leading wide receiver, Luther Burden III, against K-State’s overhauled secondary.
NCAAF Pick: Missouri +5 (-112) at BetOnline
NCAAF Pick: Missouri (+165) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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