College Football Week 4 Best Bets: Bulls to Survive Hurricanes with Cover
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LT Profits
- September 21, 2024
Top NCAAF Pick: South Florida +17 (-110) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
After going 2-1 in Week 3, we have now reached Week 4 of the 2014 College Football Season. And while it is Friday, that does not mean that there is still no value to be found on the Saturday card.
We are here with three plays we feel all have betting value at the current NCAAF odds, with most plays based on our proprietary model.
And if you’re looking for more value picks, make sure to take a look at our YouTube channel for more daily betting advice. Today, our expert has advice on the Florida vs. Mississippi State and USC vs. Michigan games.
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Kent State Golden Flashes vs. Penn State Nittany Lions
Saturday, September 21, 2024 – 03:30 PM ET at Beaver Stadium
We see a lower scoring game than this seemingly inflated total suggests, so we are betting the Under when Kent State heads into Happy Valley to take on Penn State.
How Will Kent Score?
Kent State is off to an 0-3 start and is on a 12-game losing streak dating back to last year, when the team’s only win was against an FCS school. Well, the Golden Flashes may go winless this season considering they had a horrific home loss to an FCS opponent in St, Francis (PA) two weeks ago! They followed up that embarrassment by getting shellacked 71-0 by Tennessee last week.
Now they must travel to one of the more electric environments in college football with an offense ranked 133rd out of 134 FBS schools in total offense at a mere 201.3 yards per game. The Flashes have not been so Golden while ranking 133rd in rushing offense and 123rd in passing offense. So, if you are wondering how Kent will score points on the Penn State defense, well, so are we!
Slow Pace and Lookahead Spot
This means that basically all of the scoring in this contest will come from the Nittany Lions, which may make this posted total in the mid-50s hard to reach. That difficulty may be compounded by Penn State’s excruciatingly slow pace, as they rank 112th in the nation in seconds per play at 29.5.
Sure, the Lions are 2-0 while scoring exactly 34 points in both wins even at their slow pace, and yes, they might be capable of scoring in the 50s against this inferior opponent. However, Penn State begins Big Ten play next week against Illinois, so they may very well be playing all of their backups in the second half of this game while looking ahead.
With the potential for a shutout very real in this spot, we are willing to bank on the Under in anticipation of Penn State not running up the score with their reserves after halftime.
Predicted Score: Penn State 42 – Kent State 3
NCAAF Odds: Under 55.5 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Miami Hurricanes vs. South Florida Bulls
Saturday, September 21, 2024 – 07:00 PM ET at Raymond James Stadium
While Miami has looked impressive during a 3-0 start, we feel the Hurricanes are overvalued laying this many points on the road visiting their in-state rivals from South Florida. Therefore, we are taking the big points with the Bulls.
Who Have They Beaten?
This season is very reminiscent of last year under Coach Mario Cristobal for Miami. The Canes started 4-0 in 2023 with a nice win over Texas A&M and three blowouts over pancakes, before losing to Georgia Tech and the season going downhill from there. This year, Miami opened with a decisive 41-17 win over Florida before expected home routs of Ball State and an FCS opponent in Florida A&M.
And frankly, we are not even sure the Florida win was as good as it seemed at the time with the Gators still struggling this season. Furthermore, one area that was a concern for Miami entering this season was the secondary. Well, they are currently 10th in the country in pass defense at only 123.0 yards per game, but we are unsure how “real” that ranking is given the weak competition so far, including the Florida 2-QB shuffle throughout that game.
Bulls Can Score
South Florida is 2-1 losing only at Alabama, which was an acceptable loss in which the Bulls rushed for 206 yards against the good Crimson Tide defense. They then posted a nice 49-24 road win at Southern Miss last week while amassing 562 yards of total offense. But perhaps the most notable aspect of that rout was the passing game starting to click in the second half.
The Bulls were expected to be more balanced offensively this season, but quarterback Byrum Brown had underwhelmed prior to the second half last week. However, he and his receivers found their rhythm during three touchdown drives after halftime, and if that continues, the Miami secondary may get its first rest this season. Also, a successful passing game would make the USF rushing offense ranked eighth in the land at 268.7 yards per game that much tougher to stop.
Thus, South Florida does seem to have the pieces to score enough points to stay in this game. Add in USF probably being the more motivated team facing an in-state Power 4 rival, and we are betting on USF as big home underdogs.
Predicted Score: Miami-FL 38 – South Florida 28
NCAAF Pick: South Florida +17 (-110) at Bovada
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
Rice Owls vs. Army Black Knights
Saturday, September 21, 2024 – 12:00 PM ET at Michie Stadium
In a game where Army figures to dominate the Time of Possession, we are banking on the Black Knights to do enough on those possessions to cover this spread at home hosting Rice.
Army Doing Army Things
Army comes in a perfect 2-0 both straight up and ATS, and they are doing it the Army way. The Black Knights are always among the top rushing teams in the country, and they currently lead the nation with 390.0 rushing yards per game while ranking 6th with 6.8 yards per carry. Of course, the flip side of that is they are 132nd out of 134 FHS schools in passing yards at 50.5, but that does not mean as much when successfully closing out games with the run.
And while there have been years in the past where the success of the run was mainly due to the deception of the triple-option attack, things are a little different this year with a legitimately good offensive line. In fact, per PFF, that Army O-line leads the nation in offensive stuff rate while ranking fourth in run-block rating at 85.6.
Nightmare Matchup
Rice enters at 1-2 and ranks 120th nationally in strength of record. Their lone win was a stat-padding 69-7 win over Texas Southern of the FCS. Meanwhile, they were blown out by two mediocre FBS opponents, losing 34-14 to Sam Houston State and 33-7 to Houston. They were dominated in the trenches in both FBS losses, and we foresee the same scenario here.
That is because while the Army offensive line leads the country in stuff rate as mentioned, the Rice defensive line ranks 112th. That should make it very difficult to get the Army offense off the field. And when the Owls have the ball, the Black Knights defense ranks ninth in the land in quality drives allowed.
Granted, the Black Knights’ defensive success has to do with playing with a lead every game, but we see that happening again here with Rice being unable to contain the best rushing attack in the country. Give the points with Army at home in West Point.
Predicted Score: Army 30 – Rice 16
NCAAF Pick: Army -6.5 (-118) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
