Top NCAAF Pick: Southern Miss +5.5 (-110) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
We have already reached Week 5 of the College Football season, and even though it is Friday, we have still found our three best last-minute value bets of the week for the Saturday card.
Remember that these are value-bets mostly based on our proprietary model, thus resulting in a high majority of our selections being underdogs. All three of our best bets this week are such value underdogs, with two of them coming in more under-the-radar Sun Belt Conference play, while the third one comes in the Big 12.
Texas State Bobcats vs. Southern Miss Golden Eagles
Saturday, September 30, 2023 – 07:00 PM EDT at M.M. Roberts Stadium
For our first play in the Sun Belt Conference, we feel that Southern Mississippi has a legitimate chance of pulling the outright upset at home hosting Texas State, although we are officially taking the points in what should be a coin-flip affair.
Questionable Schedule
Texas State opened the season by upsetting Baylor, but while that looked like a great win at the time, it has since lost its luster with Baylor currently at 1-3, with the only win being a non-covering one vs. the LIU Sharks of the FCS. The Bobcats then lost 20-13 at UTSA before beating a couple of doormats the last two weeks in Jackson State and Nevada, getting to 3-1.
Looking at the two games vs. FBS competition since Baylor, Texas State managed just 13 points and 242 total yards vs. a weak UTSA defense that is allowing 28.0 points and 382.5 yards per game, and they then needed to rally from down 17-0 vs. an 0-4 Nevada team ranked 120th in the country in total offense and 132nd in total defense, so this team does not profile as a trustworthy road favorite.
Better Defense
Now we get that Southern Miss dropped to 1-3 after losing their Sun Belt opener to Arkansas State last week, but despite facing the tougher schedule of these two teams, the Golden Eagles have had the considerably better defense, ranking 84th in total defense including an excellent 24th in passing defense, while Texas State is 107th in total defense despite the creampuff schedule.
Also, the Southern Miss offense had its best offensive showing of the year in defeat last week, putting up 449 total yards with 234 of them coming on the ground, as Frank Gore Jr. finally got going after a slow start to the season with 132 yards on 20 carries. He has another chance to succeed here vs. an untested Bobcats defense.
Thus we are taking the points with Southern Miss at home, in fact calling for an upset.
Predicted Score: Southern Miss 30 – Texas State 28
NCAAF Pick: Southern Miss +5.5 (-110) at Bookmaker
Troy Trojans vs. Georgia State Panthers
Saturday, September 30, 2023 – 07:00 PM EDT at Center Parc Stadium
Our second venture into the Sun Belt this week barely qualifies as an underdog, but nonetheless, we are betting Troy at +1 as of this writing visiting Georgia State.
Better Than the Record
Troy comes in at 2-2, but one loss was expected in Big 12 Country on the road at Kansas State and the second 18-14 loss to James Madison does not seem so bad now that the Dukes are 4-0. Most importantly, the 27-24 win over Western Kentucky was not as close as the score would indicate when looking inside the box score.
The Trojans did practically whatever they wanted offensively in that win, amassing 349 passing yards and 172 rushing yards for 521 total yards of offense, while the defense limited the Hilltoppers to just 288 total yards. Troy ranks 38th in the country in passing offense led by quarterback Gunnar Watson and is more than capable of taking advantage of a 127th-ranked Georgia State passing defense.
Paper Panthers
There is a reason that Georgia State is close to a pick’em at home with a 4-0 record as that has come vs. one of the weakest schedules in the country, as the four teams that the Panthers have beaten have combined for just one win over FBS competition.
And yet, despite that schedule, Georgia State ranks 98th in the country in total defense allowing 401.0 yards per game. Granted, the Panthers are 39th in total offense at 439.8 yards per contest, but that unit is now facing a “real” defense for the first time, with Troy ranking 28th in total defense, even holding Kansas State to below 400 yards.
So we feel the records of both of these teams are deceiving as we see Troy as the better squad that should emerge victorious.
Predicted Score: Troy 27 – Georgia State 23
NCAAF Pick: Troy +1 (-106) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
Iowa State Cyclones vs. Oklahoma Sooners
Saturday, September 30, 2023 – 07:00 PM EDT at Gaylord Family Oklahoma Memorial Stadium
In our lone power conference selection this week, we like Iowa State to hang inside the huge number visiting Oklahoma in Big 12 play.
Ready to Roll?
Iowa State went 1-2 during non-conference play while dealing with a gambling scandal that got their starting quarterback kicked off the team and a battle with food poisoning the night before a loss to Ohio in a game where the Cyclones dominated statistically.
With all that out of the way, Iowa State went to 2-2 with a nice 34-27 win over Oklahoma State in the conference opener last week, with new quarterback Rocco Becht completing 27 of 38 passes for 348 yards and three touchdowns with no interceptions.
A Vulnerable 4-0?
The Sooners are 4-0, but they were not overly impressive vs. the two best opponents they have faced so far in SMU and Cincinnati. Oklahoma beat SMU 28-11 in Week 2 but allowed 367 total yards on defense while amassing a shade less offensively with 365.
Then the Sooners only outgained Cincinnati by 49 yards in another lackluster 20-6 win last week, and now find themselves favored by just about the same amount of points that they scored in totality last week vs. an Iowa State team capable of exploiting an Oklahoma secondary that has had some issues early on.
That secondary has resulted in Oklahoma ranking 62nd nationally in passing defense while probably not yet facing a quarterback with Becht’s ability. We feel that should be enough for the Cyclones to put enough points on the board to cover this large spread.
Predicted Score: Oklahoma 31 – Iowa State 17
NCAAF Pick: Iowa State +19.5 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
Calculators
