College Football Week 5 Best Bets: Rebels To Prevail With New Insurgent Quarterback
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LT Profits
- September 27, 2024
Top NCAAF Pick: UNLV -2 (-116) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
We have now reached Week 5 of the 2014 College Football Season. And while it is Friday, that does not mean that there is still no value to be found on the Saturday card. We are here with three plays we feel all have betting value at the current NCAAF odds from the top sportsbooks, with most plays based on our proprietary model.
And if you’re looking for more value picks, make sure to take a look at our YouTube channel for more daily betting advice. Today, our expert has advice on Oklahoma vs. Auburn and Georgia vs. Alabama.
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BYU Cougars vs. Baylor Bears
Saturday, September 28, 2024 – 12:00 PM ET at McLane Stadium
In a game where both teams had deceptive results last week for opposite reasons, we are backing Baylor as a seemingly undervalued short favorite at home hosting BYU.
Favorable Quarterback Change?
Baylor comes in at 2-2 overall and 3-1 ATS, but they could easily be 3-1 and perfect ATS considering how last week’s 38-31 road loss at Colorado ended. The Bears had a win and cover secured as 2.5-point underdogs until the Buffalos tied the game on a Hail Mary pass on the final play of regulation. Then, in overtime, Baylor sealed its fate with a fumble through the end zone in a goal-to-go situation.
And keep in mind that the Bears are nearly 4-0 ATS while starting the season with a quarterback in Dequan Finn who did not look ready for power conference play after transferring from Toledo. He was benched last week after completing just 53.5% of his passes in favor of Sawyer Robertson, and the offense immediately put up a season-high in points vs. an FBS opponent.
Outgained by Nice Margin in Win
Granted, BYU is a perfect 4-0 straight up and ATS, but the offense has not done much ranking 90th nationally in yards per game (364.2) and 86th in yards per play (5.7). We do not expect any improvement this week against a Baylor defense ranked 23rd in yards per game (269.0) and 16th in yards per play (4.2) allowed.
Furthermore, the Cougars were very fortunate while upsetting Kansas State 38-9 last week despite the final score. BYU was outgained in the contest 367-241, and they scored one defensive touchdown, one punt return touchdown and two touchdowns with short fields following turnovers. In fact, they totaled only 56 yards of offense while scoring those 28 points!
We feel those two wacky results from each team have skewed this line, as we would have made Baylor around -6 at home here prior to last week. With that in mind, we are looking for appropriate regression both ways and betting Baylor at a short number.
Predicted Score: Baylor 27 – BYU 17
NCAAF Pick: Baylor -3 (-108) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
Liberty Flames vs. Appalachian State Mountaineers
Saturday, September 28, 2024 – 03:30 PM ET at Kidd Brewer Stadium
Editor’s Note: Due to the effects of Hurricane Helen along the East Coast, Liberty’s football game against Appalachian State on Saturday has been canceled.
It is very rare to see Appalachian State installed as a home underdog, and we are betting on the Mountaineers in that role in a potential upset hosting a possibly overvalued Liberty team.
Almost 0-4 ATS
Liberty went 13-0 last season before losing to Oregon in the Fiesta Bowl, and the Flames are 4-0 to start this year. However, this is simply not the same caliber team as in 2023, due largely to wide receiver CJ Daniels transferring to LSU, leaving them without a playmaking burner on the outside. And while last year’s team pummeled opponents, this year’s version is 1-3 ATS and could easily be 0-4 ATS.
This team had some trouble putting away a couple of bottom feeders in New Mexico State and UTEP. Then Liberty was rather lucky to cover in a 35-24 win over East Carolina last week as 7.5-point chalk. ECU was driving for a potential winning score down 28-24 late when they fumbled in the red zone, and Liberty then scored on a broken run with under 2:00 left after not covering the whole game.
We simply feel the Flames are vulnerable right now as road favorites in a difficult environment.
Extra Prep Time Helps
The Mountaineers have had plenty of time to prepare for this game after playing on Thursday last week, a game where they were upset by South Alabama in blowout fashion 48-14. That was a surprising result for an Appalachian defense that had held East Carolina to 324 total yards in a 21-19 road win the previous week, and the extra days off could be helpful in returning to that defensive form here.
Now, you may have noticed that East Carolina was a common opponent for these teams. Well, for comparison, the Mountaineers put up 505 yards of offense in their win over ECU while Liberty amassed 414 yards against them last week.
Also, we like the matchup of the Appalachian State passing offense ranked 19th nationally in passing yards at 307.5 per game against a Liberty defense ranked 64th in passing defense and 83rd in yards per pass allowed.
Regarding this being a tough place to play, this is only the second time the Mountaineers have been home underdogs in the last seven years! We are taking the points with Appalachian State in a possible upset.
Predicted Score: Appalachian State 35 – Liberty 31
NCAAF Pick: Appalachian State +3.5 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
Fresno State Bulldogs vs. UNLV Runnin’ Rebels
Saturday, September 28, 2024 – 03:30 PM ET at Allegiant Stadium
One of the biggest headlines this week is UNLV quarterback Matthew Sluka suddenly redshirting with the intent of entering the transfer portal. However, we are still backing the Rebels at a now discounted price at home hosting Fresno State.
Line Overreaction?
UNLV is off to a 3-0 start with a chance to be the Group of Five representative in the College Football Playoff this season. To wit, they are the only Group of Five team ranked in the Top 25 Coaches’ Poll, and they are ranked 23rd overall by PFF. And remember that the Rebels were 4-point favorites here when Sluka announced his departure, and we really do not see enough separation between him and new starter Hajj-Malik Williams for this line to drop below -3.
Williams is a veteran having played five seasons for Campbell of the FCS, passing for 8,326 yards and 58 touchdowns while also rushing for over 1600 yards. And it is not as if he is making his FBS debut against an elite defense, with Fresno State ranking 63rd in total defense and 76th against the pass. Besides, UNLV’s early success has had more to do with ranking fifth in the country in rushing offense at 293.3 yards per game than with anything Sluka provided.
Facing Better Defense
Now, Fresno State is 3-1 with the only loss being an acceptable one at Michigan to start the season. And they have scored 132 points in their three wins since scoring 10 in Ann Arbor. Keep in mind though that the three victories have come against Colorado State, New Mexico, and New Mexico State, all as double-digit favorites.
That slate has resulted in a 107th SOS played ranking per PFF, and despite that soft schedule and all those points scored, the Bulldogs are still ranked a modest 65th in total offense. And now the competition gets tougher this week with UNLV allowing just 13.7 points per game while ranking 35th in total defense.
So, the bottom line here is we are now getting UNLV laying less than a field goal at home while owning the better defense and with, in our minds, not much of a drop-off if any at quarterback. Bet the Runnin’ Rebels on Saturday.
Predicted Score: UNLV 30 – Fresno State 21
NCAAF Pick: UNLV -2 (-116) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
