NCAAF Pick: Ole Miss (+130) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
With the betting odds for this week’s college football action available at the top sportsbooks, three games especially interest me: Florida vs. Kentucky, Virginia vs. Boston College, and LSU vs. Ole Miss.
For your best bets, I will recommend that you wager on all three underdogs. I like to invest three-quarters of a unit in the underdog ATS and the remaining quarter in the underdog ML.
Florida Gators vs. Kentucky Wildcats
Saturday, September 30, 2023 – 12:00 PM EDT at Kroger Field
Florida’s Defense
The basis for my wager on the Gators is the following adage: “defense travels.”
Florida’s defense ranks 13th nationally, allowing 289 yards per game. In terms of scoring defense, the Gators rank 23rd nationally, as they allow 15.7 points per game. They have earned these statistical merits against ranked competition.
Against Utah, their offense was awful. Seven of Utah’s 24 points came on a very short field following a Gator interception. More recently, the Gators upset Tennessee, holding the Volunteers to 16 points.
Unique Test
Kentucky is favored in this game, yet one can’t expect its offense to score enough points against this Florida defense.
While the Wildcats have been scoring points, they’ve faced Ball State, Eastern Kentucky, Akron, and Vanderbilt. Of those teams, only awful Vanderbilt is even in the Power Five.
The battle-tested Gators will pose a significantly stronger test for Kentucky’s offense than it has encountered thus far.
Kentucky’s Offensive Problems
Despite facing soft competition, the Wildcats have shown weaknesses on offense. Their offensive line, notoriously bad last year, still appears as a work in progress.
This unit continues to battle important injuries and otherwise consists of a mixture of desperate transfers and leftovers from last year’s catastrophic group.
While the pass protection unit has benefited from facing an FCS team and two low-profile teams that rank outside the top 100 in sack percentage, the run-blocking has struggled to produce consistent results.
Kentucky’s rushing numbers are easy to praise, but, as most apparent in their game against Akron, their rushing output has been inflated by a few big runs. Outside of two long runs, they ran for 38 yards on 20 carries against lowly Akron. They likewise struggled to run the ball consistently against Vanderbilt.
Facing Florida, which ranks 20th nationally in run defense, the Wildcats are going to be one-dimensional, which means that mistake-prone and inefficient quarterback Devin Leary will have a lot of responsibility.
Florida Offense’s Outlook
Last year, Gators running backs Montrell Johnson Jr. and Trevor Etienne combined for 108 rushing yards against Kentucky. This output is impressive because they combined for only 16 carries.
Aided by Florida’s defense, the Gators’ offense will get to run the ball more. Johnson Jr. and Etienne form a high-caliber duo that can damage a Wildcat front seven hurt by key departures at inside linebacker.
With better game management than the inefficient Anthony Richardson could give the Gators, Graham Mertz, who is completing 77.8% of his passes, will help keep Kentucky’s defense honest.
NCAAF Pick: Florida (+113) at BetOnline
NCAAF Pick: Florida +2.5 (-110) at BetOnline
Virginia Cavaliers vs. Boston College Eagles
Saturday, September 30, 2023 – 02:00 PM EDT at Alumni Stadium
Virginia’s Resume So Far
While the fact that the Cavaliers are 0-4 might make them look scary to back, a look at their games played so far offers optimism. They took six-point favorite James Madison down to the wire, losing by one in the waning seconds.
Most recently, they almost upset 8.5-point favorite NC State, which benefited from avoidable Virginia penalties to win by three.
Boston College’s Resume
While Virginia hasn’t won a game, Boston College has yet to beat anybody with a pulse.
Given its resume, Boston College does not deserve to be favored. The Eagles have beaten Holy Cross, an FCS school, and no other team. That win also came by three points.
Otherwise, they lost at home to Northern Illinois and were most recently pummeled by Louisville.
Virginia Will Score A Lot
Among other things, Boston College’s run defense has been awful. The Eagles rank 87th nationally at limiting opposing rush yardage. Holy Cross, for example, amassed 264 rushing yards in 6.8 YPC.
This Eagles group is one that will not take advantage of Virginia’s previously apparent run-blocking issues.
While its rush attack will finally be helpful, the main source of UVA’s scoring will come via its pass attack. As evident in Louisville quarterback Jack Plummer’s 388-yard passing performance against Boston College, the Eagles’ defense is vulnerable to playmaking quarterbacks.
For Virginia, Anthony Colandrea makes a lot happen with his legs. He can run for yards and use his mobility to extend plays. Especially in extended plays, Virginia’s wide receiving group is going to get open. For example, Malik Washington, who enters today’s game with three straight 100-yard performances, is tough to cover for long.
Boston College’s Offense Can’t Keep Pace
Relying heavily on both the legs and the arm of quarterback Thomas Castellanos, Boston College won’t keep pace with Virginia’s scoring. Quarterbacks have struggled to be as efficient against Virginia’s defense as they have been against other teams.
The Hoos are led in the secondary by free safety Jonas Sanker, who ranks among ACC leaders in pass breakups. Their defensive improvement is spearheaded by their secondary play overall.
NCAAF Pick: Virginia (+132) at BetOnline
NCAAF Pick: Virginia +3 (+100) at BetOnline
LSU Tigers vs. Ole Miss Rebels
Saturday, September 30, 2023 – 06:00 PM EDT at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium
LSU’s Defense
Given its problems on defense, LSU does not deserve to be favored, especially on the road against a dangerous Ole Miss team.
The Tigers have faced two offenses that feature versatile play-making quarterbacks.
In both of those games, against Florida State and Arkansas, LSU did not come close to covering the spread: Florida State won 45-24 and Arkansas, a 17.5-point underdog, lost on a last-second Tigers field goal.
Both quarterbacks, Jordan Travis for Florida State and KJ Jefferson for Arkansas, used their legs in one way or another to produce a lot of yards and, for their respective offenses, a lot of points.
Jaxson Dart
Enter Jaxson Dart, Ole Miss’s quarterback, who gets a radically softer test this week after dealing with Alabama last week in Tuscaloosa. While Dart is comfortable slinging it from the pocket, he is also dangerous with his legs.
He’ll fake a handoff and become a very dangerous runner who finds open lanes and breaks tackles – he is averaging 50 rushing yards per game so far. Furthermore, he’ll use his mobility to extend plays and to throw to receivers from favorable angles.
Ole Miss’s Rush Attack
As an added bonus, the Rebels’ ground game will start to live up to its preseason hype. The Rebels did run for 299 rushing yards against Georgia Tech, so it’s not like they haven’t shown anything.
In addition to Dart, they have an All-American in running back Quinshon Judkins, who has a favorable outlook against an unreliable LSU run defense that most recently allowed Arkansas running back Rashod Dubinion to have his best performance of the season.
Ole Miss has not been far from breaking more runs, and Saturday’s game against an LSU defense that will already be overwhelmed by Dart will provide a great opportunity for the Rebels’ ground game to approach their output against Georgia Tech.
Good Enough Defense
The Rebels’ defense won’t have to do much to secure the lead that their offense will provide. They have a new defensive coordinator and a new scheme to which they have adjusted, so this is a different unit altogether from the one that faded toward the end of last season.
Their ability to limit Alabama quarterback Jalen Milroe’s scrambling ability justifies the hope that they hamper the scrambling prowess of LSU’s quarterback Jayden Daniels.
Ashanti Cistrunk, for Ole Miss, is one of the SEC’s best returning linebackers. He adds stoutness to the immediate impact that top former recruit and fellow linebacker Suntarine Perkins has exercised especially on the pass rush.
With this linebacker group and under a more effective defensive coordinator, Ole Miss will keep Daniels in check. The Rebels’ improved run defense will also help their rush attack be superior to LSU’s.
NCAAF Pick: Ole Miss +3 (-120) at BetOnline
NCAAF Pick: Ole Miss (+130) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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