NCAAF Pick: Texas -4½ (-107) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
The NCAAF odds post early lines for a reason and we like to see where they go so that we can take advantage of underdogs that are getting too many points or the favorites laying too few.
Last week our early efforts paid off as we got Boise State +3½ before the line slipped to +3 and, wouldn’t you know it, we needed that hook to get the cover as the Broncos fell to Memphis, 35-32. Let’s scope out the lines at the top offshore sportsbooks and make some more money this week in college football!
Oregon State Beavers vs. California Golden Bears
Saturday, October 07, 2023 – 10:00 PM EDT at California Memorial Stadium
Key Facts
- California is 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games at home.
- California is 4-2 ATS in their last 6 games when playing at home against Oregon State.
- California is ranked 13th in rushing yards averaging 212.2 yards per game.
Battle of Ground Game Titans
Oregon State opened as an 8-point favorite but that number drifted north shortly thereafter and it now stands at -10 as of this late Sunday night writing. Will it float further up or will the sharps take a piece at +10 and the number will fall?
Well, we don’t have a crystal ball but getting 10 points at home with a team that is one of the best in the business at running the ball is always a good sign. The Golden Bears are ranked 13th in the nation in running the football, averaging 212.2 yards per game. Running teams play possession football and when they are successful, the chains move, and the clock ticks.
Moreover, Oregon State is also a rushing juggernaut, ranked 16th, averaging 206 yards per game, and will also be playing possession football. This could lead to a low-scoring affair and if you are interested, the total currently sits as high as 53.
The Pick
Following the NCAAF predictions, let’s grab the 10 points with the home hound and cash a ticket.
NCAAF Pick: California +10 (-107) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Washington State Cougars vs. UCLA Bruins
Saturday, October 07, 2023 – 03:00 PM EDT at Rose Bowl
Key Facts
- Washington State is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games.
- Washington State is 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games against UCLA.
- UCLA is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games when playing at home against Washington State.
Will Washington State Settle the Score?
UCLA opened as 3-point home chalk over No. 13 Washington State but the public is betting the Bruins enough to where this line has gone to +4 at a few of the best sportsbooks like Bovada (visit our Bovada Review). The trends heavily favor the Cougars as they have covered in 7 of their last 10 contests and are 6-1 ATS when playing at the Rose Bowl against the Bruins.
Although Washington State is 4-0 straight up and 3-1 against the number, we should keep in mind that the last time these teams met, the Bruins stunned the Cougars, 67-63, as 18-point road dogs.
Although that game took place in 2019, humiliating defeats tend to linger and I would bet that the coaching staff has reminded their players that there is not only an undefeated streak to protect but also a score to settle.
The Pick
We are getting one of the best teams in the nation over the magic number 3 and onto another important number, 4, which makes this one of the best value bets on the board considering I believe the Cougars will win this one outright. If you’re interested, the moneyline on Washington State is +160 as of this writing but we’ll take the +4 just in case.
NCAAF Pick: Washington State +4 (-110) at Bovada
Oklahoma Sooners vs. Texas Longhorns
Saturday, October 07, 2023 – 12:00 PM EDT at Cotton Bowl
Key Facts
- Oklahoma is 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games played in Week 6.
- Oklahoma is 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games against Texas.
- Texas is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games against a Big 12 opponent.
Texas’ Rollercoaster Ride
No. 12 Oklahoma is on the road against No. 3 Texas and wouldn’t you know that the line has dropped on the Longhorns. The oddsmakers opened Texas as a 6-point home favorite but we can now get the Longhorns -4½ over at Bookmaker.
Both teams are undefeated but the Sooners are also perfect at the betting windows with a 5-0 ATS mark while the Horns are 3-2 against the number. In those two games in which Texas failed to cover, the numbers were quite large as they defeated Wyoming, 31-10, as 30½ point home favorites, and topped Rice, 37-10, but disappointed their backers who laid 35 ½ points.
But on the flip side of that coin, we should note that the Longhorns upset Alabama in Tuscaloosa, 34-24, as 7-point road dogs and crushed Baylor on the road two weeks ago, 38-6, followed by last week’s convincing 40-14 victory over Kansas, covering as 17½ and 16½ point favorites, respectively.
The Pick
I say Texas gets their third consecutive cover and beats the Sooners by a touchdown or more.
NCAAF Pick: Texas -4½ (-107) at Bookmaker
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
Calculators
