NCAAF Pick: Wyoming +6 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Will this be the weekend that marks the end of Georgia’s reign in the AP Top 25 poll? If so, will it be Texas or Michigan as the nation’s new #1 team? This Saturday could mark a turning point in the current NCAAF landscape so let’s look at our College Football Week 6 Editor’s Picks.
After struggling against Auburn, last week, Georgia’s grip on the top spot has loosened up. With a matchup against #20 Kentucky, the Bulldogs could see their stock plummet, especially on the weekend that Texas plays in the Red River Rivalry game.
While those are two of the most attractive matchups for this weekend, is there any value in them? Short answer: Yes, but let’s also take a look at games, like LSU vs. Missouri or Fresno State vs. Wyoming.
Time to break down some NCAAF odds and improve on our 3-3 ATS from last week. Let’s go!
Kentucky Wildcats vs. Georgia Bulldogs
Saturday, October 07, 2023 – 07:00 PM EDT at Sanford Stadium
Cats and Dogs
While the Red River Rivalry hogs the limelight, don’t sleep on this electrifying matchup. Last week, the Wildcats were firing on all cylinders against Florida, and you can feel the Mark Stoops impact starting to sizzle. On the flip side, Georgia struggled to put Auburn away, leaving many of us scratching our heads, wondering if the Bulldogs might finally drop that #1 ranking.
Alas, one more week has passed and Georgia is still #1. With critics starting to raise their voices, going against Kirby Smart might seem like a not-so-smart idea. However, my colleague LT Profits sees last chance value in this total so he has my undivided attention.
The Pick
“While Georgia has won the last 13 head-to-head meetings between these teams, this Kentucky team may be the best equipped during this time for a possible upset due to the ability of running back Ray Davis to exploit the aforementioned troubles for Georgia vs. the run. Davis exploded for 280 rushing yards last week with six runs of 15+ yards.
“Now the Kentucky defense has played with a “bend, don’t break” mindset, not allowing many big plays while ranking third in the nation in the Explosiveness Allowed metric. However, they may not be as good at keeping Georgia off the scoreboard as they have their first four opponents as the Bulldogs have converted 23 of 26 trips to the red zone into points.
“So while this total has dropped from an opener of 48.5, we will go against that grain as we look for both teams to find a way to score enough points to push this game Over.” LT Profits
NCAAF Pick: Over 47.5 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
TCU Horned Frogs vs. Iowa State Cyclones
Saturday, October 07, 2023 – 08:00 PM EDT at Jack Trice Stadium
Feeling the Heat
After sizzling through a Texas summer, TCU is headed to Ames, Iowa, where they can finally bid adieu to the scorching heat and welcome some cool, crisp fall weather. But here’s the kicker – we’re not sure if the Iowa State defense is going to be as hospitable as the change of climate!
The Horned Frogs might be feeling a bit “out of tune” compared to their CFP Championship appearance last year and, personally, I’ve got a soft spot for the Cyclones. But hey, let’s see what our college football connoisseur, Willie Bee, has up his sleeve with his best bets for Week 6.
The Pick
“The Horned Frogs lead the all-time series 9-5 (7-5 as Big 12 foes), and won a laugher last year in Ft. Worth by a 62-14 count. That contest wrapped up an undefeated regular season for TCU.
“Iowa State had won the three previous encounters, all of which went ‘over’ the totals like last year. The Cyclones have also won and covered the last three matchups in Ames, the scoreboard running 2-1 O/U in those contests.
“Neither team looked good a week ago when TCU inexplicably lost 24-21 to West Virginia as 14-point chalk while Iowa State was blown out by Oklahoma 50-20. The points and the Cyclones is my final free pick for Week 6.” Willie Bee
NCAAF Pick: Iowa State +6.5 (-105) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
Marshall Thundering Herd vs. NC State Wolfpack
Saturday, October 7, 2023 – 02:00 PM EDT at Wayne Day Family Field at Carter-Finley Stadium
Fading the Pack
I’ve been fading NC State since Week 2 and my bankroll has thanked me for doing that. I had high hopes for the Wolpack but seeing them struggle against UConn, has made me reassess my opinion of Brennan Armstrong, who transferred to the Wolfpack from Virginia for his final season.
Despite the announcement from head coach Dave Doeren, who confirmed that Armstrong will be benched in favor of sophomore MJ Morris, I’m still skeptical about backing NC State. With the team trying to find its identity, my colleague Rainman agrees and even expects an upset from the Thundering Heard.
The Pick
“The Thundering Herd differs from NC State in having a steady option at quarterback, Cam Fancher, who is efficient and capable of exceeding 100 rushing yards in a game. With multiple reliable pass-catching options, he’ll be effective against NC State’s middling pass defense.
“But Marshall’s most valuable source of offense will be running back Rasheen Ali, who boasts various accolades, such as a Preseason All-Sun Belt First Team selection.
“The Wolfpack run defense is not what it used to be. This decline is measurable in its drastic drop in run defense ranking relative to last year, a drop which is disturbing because two of their five opponents faced are UConn and VMI and another, Virginia, owns one of the nation’s worst rush attacks. This is a team against which Ali can continue averaging five YPC.” Rainman
NCAAF Pick: Marshall +6 (+100) at BetOnline
LSU Tigers vs. Missouri Tigers
Saturday, October 07, 2023 – 12:00 PM EDT at Memorial Stadium
Tigers Clash
This game sets the stage for what could be a letdown moment for LSU. There were high expectations, including my own, for this team. So far, they haven’t quite lived up to the hype. LSU’s defense has struggled, as evidenced by last week’s high-scoring affair against Ole Miss, despite having many returning starters from last season.
On the flip side, Missouri is performing well and getting nearly a touchdown in this matchup. While backing the Tigers seems like a good idea, our college football expert, Jason Radowitz, has a more compelling betting perspective for this SEC clash, which happens to be one of his top computer predictions for the week.
The Pick
“The Tigers have added over 550 yards of offense per game, but they’ve also allowed nearly 430 yards on the defensive end this season. The run defense isn’t bad. The pass rush has also been successful, but tackling and coverage have hurt LSU’s chances at doing much of anything this year. That plays into the Over.
“Missouri has also earned 453.4 yards per game on offense. They’ve added 304.4 yards in the air. Brady Cook has been clever with the football, throwing for 11 touchdowns and no interceptions to begin the season. He’s also got a QBR of 78.3.
“He’s not Jayden Daniels, who has thrown for 1710 yards and 16 touchdowns, but Cook is dealing and should have no problems against the LSU young secondary.” Jason Radowitz
NCAAF Pick: Over 63 (-110) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
Oklahoma Sooners vs. Texas Longhorns
Saturday, October 07, 2023 – 12:00 PM EDT at Cotton Bowl
Red River Rivalry
It’s another edition of the Red River Rivalry with both Oklahoma and Texas coming into this game undefeated. This could be their last game, as part of the Big 12, with the Longhorns leaving the conference.
Texas is favorite and quarterback Quinn Ewers has seen his Heisman stock rise lately, especially after the win against Alabama. However, it’s Oklahoma’s Dillon Gabriel who boasts better stats so far this season. Why take my word for it? Let’s see what football guru, Donnie RightSide, has to say on our YouTube channel.
The Pick
“How about this game? It’s #12 in the country versus #3, Texas in another edition of the Red River rivalry. How about that? Kicking off at noon! If we take a look at this football game, we have two teams pretty evenly matched with offensive, high-octane firepower.
“Coming into this game, both of them have been on fire and both of them are highly ranked at this point. I’ll take the 6.5 points in this matchup.” Donnie RightSide
NCAAF Pick: Oklahoma +6.5 (-110) at Bovada
Fresno State Bulldogs vs. Wyoming Cowboys
Saturday, October 07, 2023 – 08:00 PM EDT at Jack Trice Stadium
Giddy Up!
Last week, I successfully predicted the Under 54 in the Virginia-Boston College game, bringing my season record back to .500. With that in mind, I’m eager to secure another win this Saturday for some profit.
However, I won’t be focusing on totals in the near future after the nail-biting experience with that Under. Instead, for Week 6, I’m looking for value in the Mountain West Conference with the Wyoming Cowboys. Giddy up!
The Pick
Yes, the red-hot Fresno State Bulldogs (5-0) will be in Laramie, aiming to maintain their undefeated streak. Surprisingly, we’re getting points with the home team, Wyoming. It may not seem like the obvious choice, given Fresno State’s 14-game winning streak dating back to last season. Still, their five victories this season haven’t come against particularly strong teams.
Meanwhile, Wyoming boasts a 4-1 record, with their lone loss occurring on the road against Texas. Initially, this line opened at 6.5. Then dropped as low as 4. Then fluctuated back up as the public rallied behind the #24 ranked Bulldogs, according to the latest AP Poll.
Heck, these Cowboys might even lasso ‘em bulldogs and pull the upset outright. Yeehaw!
NCAAF Pick: Wyoming +6 (-110) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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