College Football Week 6 Best Bets: Rare Service Academy Over in Navy vs. Air Force
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LT Profits
- October 4, 2024
Top NCAAF Pick: Over 36.5 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
We have now reached Week 6 of the 2024 College Football Season. And while it is Friday, that does not mean that there is still no value to be found on the Saturday card. We are here with three plays we feel all have betting value at the current NCAAF odds from top sportsbooks, with most plays based on our proprietary model.
And if you’re looking for more value picks, make sure to take a look at our YouTube channel for more daily betting advice. Today, our expert has advice on UCLA vs. Penn State and Rutgers vs. Nebraska.
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Navy Midshipmen vs. Air Force Falcons
Saturday, October 05, 2024 – 12:00 PM ET at Falcon Stadium
It is well documented that the Unders have dominated for many years when the three service academies have faced each other. However, we are bucking that trend at what we feel is a very low posted total and backing the Over when the Navy visits the Air Force in Colorado Springs.
At Least Some Balance
Navy is off to a perfect 4-0 start, and as usual, they are dominating teams on the ground, ranking fifth in the country with 287.2 rushing yards per game and eighth at 6.2 yards per carry. One thing a bit different from past teams is the Middies have a playmaker at quarterback in Blake Horvath. Sure, he has added to the running game with 450 rushing yards on 9.6 yards per carry, but he has also completed 68.2% of his passes averaging an obscene 14.0 yards per attempt!
Keep in mind that is over only 44 pass attempts in four games, so make no mistake, this is still mainly your typical Navy running team. Now normally, that is good for the Under, which is why that has dominated service academy games as all three services are run-heavy. But in this case, the Air Force has struggled stopping the run, and according to PFF, they allowed seven explosive runs last week against a bad Wyoming team.
That should result in more Midshipmen long runs and fewer long drives.
Also Facing Bad Run Defense
Air Force is almost an exclusive running team, ranking dead last in the country in passing yards per game at 66.2. And while the Falcons are not at Navy’s level running the football, they still average a very solid 176.8 rushing yards per game.
But again, the real story is the opposing run defense. In fact, the Navy defense has been worse defending the rush than Air Force has, ranking 90th nationally allowing 158.2 yards per game on the ground. And remember, that is with the opponents having fewer possessions with the Middies dominating Time of Possession every game.
So, while both academies rely on the run as usual on offense, both rushing defenses are bad enough to allow some breakaway runs. That has us betting the Over at this depressed number.
Predicted Score: Navy 28 – Air Force 20
NCAAF Pick: Over 36.5 (-108) at Heritage Sports
USC Trojans vs. Minnesota Golden Gophers
Saturday, October 05, 2024 – 07:30 PM ET at Huntington Bank Stadium
We feel this spread is too big for a USC team in a tough scheduling spot and with some matchup disadvantages on the field. We are betting on Minnesota as a decided underdog in a game they have a chance to win outright.
A Lot of Time Zones!
The schedule makers did USC no favors in this, their first season in the Big Ten. The Trojans played at Michigan two weeks ago, flew home to California to host Wisconsin last week, flew cross-country again for this game, and then fly back home to host Penn State next week. That is not to mention this being a prime lookahead spot with the Nittany Lions on deck.
On the field, USC ranks 12th in the country on passing yards at 316.0 per game, led by quarterback Miller Moss. However, he struggled in his only true road-start at Michigan completing 28-ot-51 passes and averaging a meager 5.5 yards per attempt. Now, he is facing an elite Minnesota secondary that leads the nation in passing defense allowing 96.8 yards per game through the air, and ranks second in yards per pass attempt allowed at 4.3.
Almost Shocked Michigan
Minnesota was very game last week, rallying from a 24-3 deficit at “The Big House” in Michigan by scoring 21 points in the fourth quarter against a great defense but falling short 27-24. They are not facing a juggernaut defense this week however, as the Gophers’ offensive line should dominate a USC defensive line ranked in the 90s in both Defensive Line Yards and Stuff Rate per PFF.
That should open up some holes for running back Darius Taylor, who is averaging 5.4 yards per carry but could not get going against the staunch Michigan defense. And let us not overlook quarterback Max Brosmer, who is getting better every week and engineered the comeback against the Wolverines by completing 27-of-41 passes for 258 yards with no help from the running game.
So, we see some nice things on both sides of the ball for Minnesota that should allow them to take this game down to the wire, especially if USC is a bit fatigued from the recent travel or looking ahead to Penn State. Take the points with the Golden Gophers with an upset not impossible.
Predicted Score: USC 28 – Minnesota 27
NCAAF Pick: Minnesota +8 (+105) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
UCF Knights vs. Florida Gators
Saturday, October 05, 2024 – 07:45 PM ET at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium
This is a spot where we feel the wrong team is currently favored in this semi-marquee non-conference matchup. We are backing Florida as current home underdogs hosting their fellow in-state inhabitants from UCF.
Should Pass Effectively
The Gators actually did open up as -1.5-point favorites here before the line turned around and they are now small underdogs. And frankly, we disagree with that move. Florida is still alternating their two quarterbacks Graham Mertz and DJ Lagway every game, and while we are usually not fans of 2-QB systems, it has served the Gators well.
Florida is a good 32nd in the country in passing yards at 278.5 per game and an excellent 10th in yards per attempt at 10.0. The quarterbacks were nearly perfect in their last game before a bye week, completing 26-of-28 passes at Mississippi State. Now, the Gators have had two weeks to prepare for a poor UCF pass defense ranked 108th in yards per game allowed at 251.5.
Not Finishing Drives
Central Florida was blown out at home as a -11.5-point favorite 48-21 last week by Colorado for their first loss of the season after a 3-0 start. However, the problem they had finishing drives against the Buffalos, scoring three times despite accumulating 461 total yards, has plagued them all season. That finally bit them last week and they will have to improve in that regard as we see their defense struggling to make stops here.
Sure, the UCF defense is much better against the run, ranking 10th allowing just 80.0 rushing yards per game on 3.0 YPC. But Florida is not much of a running team anyway ranking 84th in rushing. We would have no problem here with the Gators throwing the ball 35-40 times in this game due to the big advantage we see for them there.
We thought the opening line here was closer to the “right” line as we see the two Florida quarterbacks passing them to an outright win. Our official play though is taking the points with the Gators at home.
Predicted Score: Florida 33 – UCF 27
NCAAF Pick: Florida +2.5 (-105) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
