NCAAF Pick: Pittsburgh +7.5 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports)
Welcome to Week 7 of the 2023 College Football, and even at this late stage of the week, we have found three best bets for Saturday that hold last-minute value.
These bets are value bets mostly based on our proprietary model, which produces a high percentage of underdogs. True to form, all three of our best bets this week are value underdogs at the top sportsbooks.
Indiana Hoosiers vs. Michigan Wolverines
Saturday, October 14, 2023 – 12:00 PM EDT at Michigan Stadium
Michigan may have one of the best teams in the country, but their snail-like pace makes it hard to cover spreads over four touchdowns, so we are backing Indiana at this enormous number.
128th in Pace
The Wolverines are deserving of their number two ranking as this is a team that simultaneously ranks 17th in the country in yards per play offensively at 7.0 and 12th in yards per play allowed defensively at 4.2. However, there is a good reason for their disconnect in ranking 17th in yards per play and only 52nd in total offense.
And that reason is Michigan’s methodical pace, as they rank 128th of 133 FBS teams in seconds per snap, a pace that has only allowed them to get off 60.2 plays per game, which makes it hard to cover huge spreads like this. To wit, this is the fourth time this season that Michigan has been favored by more than 30 points, and not only are they 0-3 ATS so far, but on each occasion, they scored fewer points than they were favored by.
Competent Opponent
All three of Michigan’s non-covers as 30+ point favorites this year came in non-conference play, and while Indiana is not a top-tier Big Ten team, the Hoosiers are at least a step up from those schools. Furthermore, Indiana has had two weeks to prepare for this following a bye last week.
The defense has played well enough as Indiana held Ohio State to 23 points and Louisville to 21, but it has been a struggle offensively with the Hoosiers ranking 111th in total offense, resulting in the firing of offensive coordinator Walt Bell after their last game, which is good timing with two full weeks to adapt.
The Pick
If Indiana can score just one touchdown with a revamped offense, it may be all that is needed to cover this spread given Michigan’s pace, so bet the Hoosiers on Saturday.
Predicted Score: Michigan 35 – Indiana 10
NCAAF Pick: Indiana +33 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Maryland Terrapins
Saturday, October 14, 2023 – 03:30 PM EDT at SECU Stadium
Illinois may be 0-6 ATS, but the Illini have been decimated by injuries and expect to get a couple of offensive linemen back this week, which has us betting them vs. a Maryland team that may be in letdown mode after battling Ohio State.
Finally Able to Run?
Besides injuries to the offensive line, Illinois has also already lost two running backs for the season to injury, and a third Reggie Love III is doubtful this week. However, the line will be replenished by the expected return of Zy Crisler and the younger running backs have performed admirably, especially Kaden Feagin averaging 6.2 YPC on his 24 carries.
Coach Bret Bielema favors a ground-and-pound attack and Crisler’s return to chore up the line may finally allow him to take that approach, which is always a positive for an underdog catching nearly two touchdowns. Plus, advanced metrics indicate that the Maryland run defense is not as good as its 28th national ranking, furthering the chance of time-consuming drives.
Letdown Spot?
Maryland was tied with Ohio State at halftime last week and still trailed by only three points after three quarters before blowing the cover by getting outscored 17-0 in the final stanza. Still, they were only outgained by 80 yards 382-302 by a Buckeyes’ team ranked 38th nationally in total offense and eighth in total defense.
Now they must summon the energy to get up for a 2-4 team after that emotional effort that resulted in the Terps first loss of the season following a 5-0 start. And while we are not normally big on trends, under these circumstances we do find it interesting that Maryland is 5-13-1 ATS the last 19 games the week after facing a Top 10 team.
The Pick
So with Maryland potentially emotionally deflated and Illinois possibly primed for its best rushing performance in a while, bet the Illini as double-digit dogs.
Predicted Score: Maryland 31 – Illinois 23
NCAAF Pick: Illinois +13.5 (-105) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
Louisville Cardinals vs. Pittsburgh Panthers
Saturday, October 14, 2023 – 06:30 PM EDT at Acrisure Stadium
This scheduling spot seems to greatly benefit Pittsburgh, coming off of a bye week allowing for extra preparation time for a Louisville team in a letdown spot after beating Notre Dame, so we are backing the Panthers getting more than a touchdown at home.
New QB
Pittsburgh has been abysmal offensively to this point, as the reunion of Boston College transfer quarterback Phil Jurkovec and former BC offensive coordinator Frank Cignetti Jr. has been a disaster with Jurkovec ranked 121st among 131 FBS quarterbacks with at least 100 snaps in QBR, and the Panthers have now pulled the plug by benching him in favor of Penn State transfer Christian Veilleux.
Veilleux is lacking in experience, but it would not take much to improve on Jurkovec’s numbers, and the timing of the benching allowed for Veilleux to work with the first-team offense for two full weeks. The news has been much better on the other side of the ball with the Pitt defense ranked 20th in the country in total defense yielding just 301.6 yards per game and 23rd in yards per play allowed at 4.8.
Coming Off Big Win
Louisville stayed undefeated at 6-0 by upsetting Notre Dame at home in a primetime marquee game last week, which may now put the Cardinals on upset alert themselves in a potential letdown spot vs. a lesser opponent, especially now playing on the road.
Also, while Louisville’s perfect record seems to be vs. a decent schedule, circumstances outside of the Notre Dame win say otherwise with a five-point win over a Georgia Tech team that fired its defensive coordinator, a win over an Indiana team that fired its offensive coordinator and a win over an NC State quarterback that has since been benched.
The Pick
With that Cardinals’ slate brought into question, combined with the letdown spot and a potential spark to the Pittsburgh offense, back the Panthers as decided home underdogs.
Predicted Score: Louisville 23 – Pittsburgh 21
NCAAF Pick: Pittsburgh +7.5 (-108) at Heritage Sports
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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