College Football Week 7 Best Bets: Wolf Pack to Chew Up Beavers in Reno
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LT Profits
- October 12, 2024
Top NCAAF Pick: Nevada +3 (-105) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
After nailing the 3-0 sweep last week, we have now reached Week 7 of the 2014 College Football Season. And while it is Friday, that does not mean that there is still no value to be found on the Saturday card. We are here with three plays we feel all have betting value at the current NCAAF odds from top sportsbooks, with most plays based on our proprietary model.
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Oregon State Beavers vs. Nevada Wolf Pack
Saturday, October 12, 2024 – 07:30 PM ET at Mackay Stadium
Oregon State enters at 4-1 while Nevada comes in 2-4, but we think that both of those records are deceptive for opposite reasons. We are taking the points in a possible upset with the Wolf Pack at home in Reno.
May be Short-Handed
The Beavers’s record is rather fraudulent, as the loss came against the best team that they played in blowout fashion 49-14 to Oregon. Meanwhile, the wins came against Idaho State, San Diego State, Purdue, and Colorado State, not exactly a “Who’s who” of the nation’s elite. They are also playing their second straight road game after playing double overtime in the altitude of Colorado State last week.
Yes, Oregon State has an explosive running attack ranked sixth nationally at 264.4 yards per game. However, they lost running back Jam Griffin early last week and he may be on the doubtful side of questionable for this game. That would be a huge loss facing a Nevada run defense that has been solid in every game except vs. Minnesota.
And Oregon State would be in trouble if forced to pass more than they would like with Gevani McCoy having just one touchdown pass while averaging only 6.0 yards per pass.
Close Losses
Nevada, meanwhile, has played better than a 2-4 team, with three of those losses being by five points or less. This includes a season-opening 29-24 loss to an SMU that has entered the Top 25 in both the AP Poll and Coaches Poll and that is now #14 on the PFF Power Ratings. The Wolf Pack have been one of the most improved teams in the country under new coach Jeff Choate without the wins to show for it.
That could change this week for another run-oriented team with Nevada ranking 36th in rushing yards at 192.8 per game on 5.0 yards per carry. And the Pack may not face much resistance from an Oregon State defense ranked 97th against the tun (166.6 per game) and 129th in yards per carry allowed at 5.9. Per PFF, the Beavers’ run defense ranks in the 120s in both Success Rate and EPA per Play.
That should allow Nevada to control the clock with effective running, while Oregon State may be unable to approach its season rushing average without Griffin. This has us taking the points with Nevada at home in a game they can win outright.
Predicted Score: Nevada 28 – Oregon State 24
NCAAF Pick: Nevada +3 (-105) at Bovada
Iowa State Cyclones vs. West Virginia Mountaineers
Saturday, October 12, 2024 – 08:00 PM ET at Milan Puskar Stadium
This is a game that may be decided by Iowa State having a substantially better passing defense than West Virginia. That is enough for us to bet on the Cyclones as small road favorites.
Looking to Stay Perfect
Iowa State is off to a 5-0 start that has them ranked 11th on the AP Poll, led by quarterback Rocco Becht, who has completed 70.0% of his passes while averaging 8.0 yards per attempt. He has yet to have a huge game with last week’s 277 passing yards against Baylor being a season high, but he has been amazingly consistent while averaging 234.8 passing yards per game.
Well, he is capable of surpassing 300 yards this week against the awful West Virginia pass defense. The Mountaineers rank 100th in the nation allowing 243.4 passing yards per game and 128th in yards per attempt allowed at 8.9. Furthermore, their secondary has a woeful 47.2 Coverage Rating per PFF to rank 129th in the land, which should allow open receivers for Rocco to throw too all night long.
Not Extending Drives
West Virginia improved to 3-2 with a blowout win 38-14 at Oklahoma State last week, but the Cowboys are in disarray right now and Iowa State represents a large rise in class. Yes, the Mountaineers have run the ball well ranking 15th in rushing offense at 222.8 yards per game. But if Iowa State has as much success against the WVU secondary as we expect, it would force the Mounties to pass more while in comeback mode.
That has not been a strong suit for a West Virginia offense ranked 80th in passing offense. Not only that, but quarterback Garrett Greene would be passing against an ISU pass defense ranked fifth allowing just 133.6 yards per game. Moreover, the Mountaineers have not been good at prolonging drives, ranking 112th in third down efficiency. That becomes a higher issue giving the ball back to an Iowa State offense capable of quick strikes against a weak secondary.
So, while the West Virginia rushing offense is the best aspect of either offense, we think that strength gets negated here by the Cyclones taking quick advantage of the poor WVU pass defense. Give the small spot with Iowa State on the road.
Predicted Score: Iowa State 35 – West Virginia 24
NCAAF Pick: Iowa State -3 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
Boise State Broncos vs. Hawaii Rainbow Warriors
Saturday, October 12, 2024 – 11:00 PM ET at Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex
Boise State is 4-1 while losing only by three points at Oregon and has the inside track to a spot in the College Football Playoff, which will include the highest ranked Group of 5 champion. But this huge line seems inflated against a Hawaii team that can play defense. Add a potential lookahead to the UNLV game up next and take the big points with Hawaii.
Massive Showdown Coming
Now make no mistake, Boise State can score on anyone as they are second in the nation in scoring with 50.6 points per game. They also have the current Heisman Trophy favorite in running back Ashton Jeanty. Our issue here though is giving nearly three touchdowns with probably one eye on the UNLV game up next on the road that may ultimately decide the Mountain West Championship.
Also, there is precedent for the Broncos pulling Jeanty early instead of padding his Heisman stats, as he did not play in the second half last week with a huge lead. They would almost certainly pull their starters late here again considering what is on deck.
And let us not forget that Hawaii has its best defense in many years under coach Timmy Chang, allowing only 19.0 points per game while ranking 31st nationally in total defense.
Can Have Passing Success
While Boise State can score on any opponent, it is their defense that should hold them back when facing better competition should they make the Playoff. That defense is allowing 30.0 per game and ranks 102nd in total defense surrendering 402.6 yards per contest.
This will give Hawaii quarterback Brayden Schager a chance to succeed and put up points through the air, allowing the Rainbow Warriors to hang around for a while. Schager has completed 60.0% of his passes with throwing 11 touchdown passes in five games, and he is facing a Boise pass defense ranked outside the top 100 in EPA per PFF.
So, we think that the Broncos not wanting to run up the score while prepping for UNLV and Hawaii having the much better defense is enough to cheap this score reasonably closer than three touchdowns. Take the points with Hawaii in the late-night “bail-out game” on Saturday.
Predicted Score: Boise State 34 – Hawaii 23
NCAAF Pick: Hawaii +20.5 (-105) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
