Top NCAAF Pick: Missouri +2.5 (-105) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Top sportsbooks have released their betting odds for this week’s college football action. There are three games that interest me: Louisville vs. Pittsburgh, Michigan State vs. Rutgers, and Missouri vs. Kentucky.
For your best bets, I recommend that you wager on all three underdogs at the best sportsbooks. I like to invest three quarters of a unit in the underdog ATS and the remaining unit in the underdog ML.
Michigan State Spartans vs. Rutgers Scarlet Knights
Saturday, October 14, 2023 – 12:00 PM EDT at SHI Stadium
Better Than Its Record
Michigan State is better than its record suggests. In their most recent games, the Spartans have shown the ability to compete with strong opponents. Two games ago, they outgained Maryland in yardage.
In their last game, their total yardage was 349 to Iowa’s 222. Turnovers and, in the Iowa game, a punt return touchdown, have cost Michigan State. These mistakes and mishaps are avoidable. When Michigan State avoids them, their chances of winning will naturally receive a significant boost.
Michigan State’s Run Defense
But the matchup this week is especially favorable to Michigan State, as it faces a Rutgers team that lacks the ability to exploit its vulnerable secondary. In their worst loss of the season, against Washington, the Spartans were eviscerated through the air.
But Rutgers’ quarterback is hardly completing over half his passes. The Scarlet Knights would rather run the ball — they own the nation’s 19th-highest run-play percentage.
Therefore, the success of Michigan State’s run defense is highly relevant to this game. Michigan State held Maryland below its season average in rushing yards per game before limiting Iowa to 61 rushing yards on 2.3 YPC.
With players, some of whom are transfers, taking time to build chemistry together, the Spartans’ run defense is gelling.
Michigan State’s Ground Game
Rutgers has benefited from facing soft rush attacks, such as a Virginia Tech ground game that is undermined by awful offensive line play.
When the Scarlet Knights have faced tougher challenges on the ground, they’ve lost. Michigan and Wisconsin both exposed them.
For Michigan State, Nathan Carter has been excellent at running back. After achieving 5.4 YPC against Iowa, he’s averaging over five YPC on the season. He’s strong; he’s fast; and he ably finds open running lanes.
Quarterback Noah Kim can lean on him and, with his defense keeping the team in the game, not have to press or otherwise try to do too much. Kim’s caution will be key: the Spartans are 2-0 SU and ATS when he doesn’t throw an interception.
NCAAF Pick: Michigan State ML (+175) at BetOnline
NCAAF Pick: Michigan State +5 (-110) at BetOnline
Louisville Cardinals vs. Pittsburgh Panthers
Saturday, October 14, 2023 – 06:30 PM EDT at Acrisure Stadium
Let-Down Situation
Louisville is worth fading this week because it is in a classic let-down situation. Coming off the high of upsetting Notre Dame, it will be hard to concentrate on and be motivated for its next opponent, a Pittsburgh team whose record makes it appear unintimidating and hard to take seriously.
Hope for Pittsburgh
No doubt, the fact that the Panthers are 1-4 and winless in the ACC also makes them hard to take seriously for Pittsburgh. But we have to look deeper than record because wins and losses are often a poor reflection of a team’s capability to win.
Pittsburgh could have beaten West Virginia and Cincinnati. The Panthers were undone by bad mistakes, especially turnovers committed by quarterback Phil Jurkovec.
New Quarterback
Going forward, Coach Narduzzi elected to replace Jurkovec with Penn State transfer Christian Veilleux in order to provide a spark to the offense.
Since Pittsburgh is coming off a bye, Veilleux will have had ample time to prepare with the first-team offense for Louisville. Skeptics may say that Veilleux won’t fix Pittsburgh’s problematic pass protection.
While quarterback pressure was certainly a problem for its offense in Pitt’s last game against Virginia Tech, its upcoming opponent is less capable of applying pressure. The Cardinals rank 47 spots below the Hokies in sack rate.
Veilleux will have time and the competence to complete the passes that Jurkovec could not. He also has the benefit of a supporting cast constituted by ample returning talent at the running back and wide receiver positions.
Pittsburgh’s Run Defense
Louisville loves to run the ball — the Cardinals own the nation’s 28th-highest run-play percentage. While Pittsburgh has largely disappointed — the Panthers are underdogs at home for a reason — there have been stretches of strong play that justify optimism in this game.
The Panthers have, to be specific, struggled with executing on run defense. The ability to execute is there — while the overall game statistics don’t show it, they, for example, held Cincinnati to 36 rushing yards on 22 carries in the second half.
Pittsburgh has an excellent opportunity to improve its run defense statistics this weekend because, with the bye week, it has had extra time to familiarize itself with Louisville’s run game concepts.
This familiarity will allow Panther run defenders to execute well by responding quickly to what they see play out. Overall, Pittsburgh ranks 30th nationally at limiting opposing YPC.
This statistic is positive because it means that the run defense is already good at limiting opposing rushing efficiency.
The key is to prevent the opponent from running the ball at a high volume, which Pittsburgh’s renewed competence at the quarterback position will help accomplish by sustaining drives and avoiding mistakes.
NCAAF Pick: Pittsburgh ML (+245) at BetOnline
NCAAF Pick: Pittsburgh +7.5 (-110) at BetOnline
Missouri Tigers vs. Kentucky Wildcats
Saturday, October 14, 2023 – 07:30 PM EDT at Kroger Field
Kentucky’s Pass Defense
Even before its last game, Kentucky ranked among the nation’s worst teams at limiting opposing completion percentage.
Georgia quarterback Carson Beck, notwithstanding criticism of his play in earlier games, was able to be highly efficient and extremely productive against Kentucky’s pass defense.
The Bulldogs adopted a pass-heavy approach, having Beck throw 35 passes, with which he amassed 389 yards and four touchdowns on 28 completions.
Missouri’s Pass Attack
With the nation’s fourth-strongest pass attack, Missouri will likewise thrive through the air against Kentucky.
It’s not like Kentucky was only vulnerable to Georgia’s elite tight end — Bulldog wide receivers likewise succeeded. The Tigers have one of the nation’s best wide receivers in Luther Burden III. Through six games, he has amassed 793 yards on 54 receptions.
His ability to make contested catches, his ability to get open, his reliability to get the first down, his open field speed, and the offensive system that creates sundry mismatches for him all make him dangerous. Quarterback Brady Cook easily looks good thanks to the dangerousness of his elite wide receiver.
Missouri’s Defense
Kentucky isn’t going to keep up with Missouri through the air. Unlike Mizzou’s last opponent, LSU with its high-caliber quarterback, Kentucky quarterback Devin Leary is hardly completing over half his passes.
The Wildcats will want to run the ball to help Leary sustain drives. When the Tigers upset Kansas State, they held the latter to 3.9 YPC. Last week, though, LSU gashed Mizzou on the ground. We must ask: which version of Missouri’s run defense will we get on Saturday?
Dual Threat?
Last Saturday, LSU used the rushing threat posed by its quarterback, Jayden Daniels, in two ways.
One, Daniels was able to run for a lot of yards himself. Two, Daniels was able to freeze opposing defenders by acting like he might keep the ball for himself before handing it off to his running back, who faced less resistance from opposing defenders because they were concerned with the rushing threat posed by Daniels.
For Kentucky, Leary doesn’t pose such a threat. Therefore, the Wildcats’ rush attack will be simpler for Missouri to limit. This is especially the case in view of Leary’s limitations as a passer.
NCAAF Pick: Missouri ML (+120) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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