College Football Week 8 Best Bets: Missouri Paper Tigers on Upset Watch?
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LT Profits
- October 18, 2024
Top NCAAF Pick: Auburn +4 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
After going 5-1 over the last two weeks, we have now reached Week 8 of the 2014 College Football Season. And while it is Friday, that does not mean that there is still no value to be found on the Saturday card.
We are here with the top three plays from top sportsbooks that we feel all have betting value at the current NCAAF odds, with most plays based on our proprietary model.
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Auburn Tigers vs. Missouri Tigers
Saturday, October 19, 2024 – 12:00 PM ET at Memorial Stadium
It is the battle of the Tigers in Columbia, MO when Auburn visits Missouri. And while Missouri is ranked 19th on the AP Poll and 16th on the Coaches Poll at 5-1 while Auburn is 2-4, we are backing Auburn with the points while calling for an upset.
Not Impressive Facing Better
Frankly, we are not even convinced Missouri deserves to be a Top 25 team after facing a Strength of Schedule ranked 90th thus far per PFF. They have had three blowout wins over teams that they were supposed to blow out in Murray State (FCS team), Buffalo, and UMass. And their three games vs. quality competition were hardly awe inspiring.
They were blown out 41-10 by Texas A&M for their only loss. They had to rally from a double-digit deficit to beat Boston College 27-21 as 14.5-point favorites. And they needed overtime to beat Vanderbilt at home in a game the Tigers would have lost if the Commodores did not miss a short field goal.
Sure, Missouri ranks 14th in the country in total defense allowing just 270.8 yards per game while averaging 434.0 yards per game offensively. But it is hard to take those numbers seriously considering their schedule, and our biggest takeaway is averaging only 6.0 yards per play, ranking just 60th nationally.
Higher YPP vs. Better Schedule
Comparatively, Auburn ranks ninth in the country in yards per play at 7.3 and is averaging slightly more yards per game at 444.5 despite facing a much tougher schedule. Furthermore, the 2-4 record is deceptive as they were in every game prior to their 31-13 loss at Georgia last game, which came before a bye meaning Auburn has had two weeks to prepare for Missouri.
Auburn outgained Arkansas and Oklahoma by a combined 288 yards in their two losses before the Georgia contest, being mostly outdone by a -4 turnover-margin. And their first loss of the season was 21-14 to California where the Tigers lost the turnover battle 5-0!
This game would have a different narrative if Auburn had played cleaner football, as they could be 4-2 or even 5-1 without all the turnovers. With two weeks to clean up those things, we are looking for an upset here over a Missouri team that has taken advantage of a soft schedule, although our official play is taking the points at over a field goal.
Predicted Score: Auburn 27 – Missouri 23
NCAAF Pick: Auburn +4 (-110) at BetOnline
USC Trojans vs. Maryland Terrapins
Saturday, October 19, 2024 – 04:00 PM ET at SECU Stadium
USC could be both physically fatigued and emotionally drained for this trip to Maryland, so we are taking the points with the Terrapins in a game they can win outright.
Frequent Flyer Miles?
Let us start with the fatigue factor created by a weird Big Ten schedule. This marks the fifth straight game that the Trojans have had to travel at least two time zones for, the last four of those without a bye week! And the madness does not end there with a flight back home to Cali for their game next week before finally getting a break with the following game also out west.
As for the emotional letdown, USC started 3-1 but has since lost two straight games to fall to 3-3 after blowing a 14-point lead at home to Penn State last week, losing 33-30 in overtime. That loss basically knocks the Trojans out of the College Football Playoff picture after having such high hopes, leaving their motivation here suspect.
As for the players on the field, the Trojans are vulnerable along both the offensive line and the defensive front seven right now, which would make Maryland a live underdog even discounting the other factors.
Ugly Loss
Maryland is looking to atone for an ugly 37-10 home loss to Northwestern last Friday as 10.5-point favorites. The Terps won the yardage battle through 355-283, but were done in by four turnovers, three of which came after pulling within 17-10 to make the final score seem deceptive. And playing Friday meant they had an extra day to prepare for this game while staying home.
Quarterback Billy Edwards Jr. had been playing well before that stinker, and he still completing 68.4% of his passes while averaging 7.6 yards per attempt with 11 touchdown passes and just three interceptions. He is facing a USC defense that has lost their leading tackler in linebacker Eric Gentry as well as starting defensive end Anthony Lucas to season-ending injuries.
On the other side of the ball, the Maryland defensive line should be able to apply pressure against a USC offensive line that rates poorly at both tackle positions.
Granted, USC can still win this game purely with their advantage at the offensive skill positions. But we feel the other vulnerabilities mentioned should make this a dogfight until the end, so bet on the Terrapins with the points at home.
Predicted Score: USC 31 – Maryland 30
NCAAF Pick: Maryland +7.5 (-113) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports)
Ball State Cardinals vs. Vanderbilt Commodores
Saturday, October 19, 2024 – 07:00 PM ET at FirstBank Stadium
Vanderbilt is flying high coming off back-to-back upsets as double-digit underdogs over Alabama and Kentucky. However, that makes this non-conference battle with Ball State a horrific scheduling spot with a matchup with #1 Texas up next. Thus, we are betting on the Cardinals getting nearly four touchdowns.
Uncommon Role
So, the Commodores have gone from being huge underdogs the last two weeks to now being huge favorites, a role they are not very familiar with. That is especially true of being favorites of this magnitude, as they have not been favorites of 24 points or more in a game since 2013.
Moreover, even putting the letdown/lookahead factors aside, the Commodores’ very style of play will always make them vulnerable as huge favorites. Vanderbilt has become more run oriented this season under coach Clark Lea, averaging a very good 165.0 rushing yards per game while ranking 104th in passing offense at 188.8 yards per contest. This has allowed them to control the Time of Possession, which inherently makes it harder to cover big spreads.
And let us not forget that Vandy could potentially go vanilla offensively here not wanting to show much, as well as pull starters early with Texas coming to town next week. The Commodores will undoubtedly be looking ahead to that chance to knock off a second #1 team (at the time) this season.
Not Without Ability
Granted, the MAC in no way compares with the SEC, but it is not as if Ball State is not capable of scoring offensively, especially with Vandy mostly indifferent about this contest. The Cardinals may be 2-4, but two of the losses were by three points each to Western Michigan and Central Michigan in games where Ball put up 42 and 34 points respectively.
In fact, the Cardinals have scored at least 34 points in four of their six games this season, with the only two times they did not do so coming against the Miami Hurricanes and James Madison. As hot as Vanderbilt has been, they are still a nondescript 54th nationally in total defense and 67th in points against.
This humongous spread would probably be tough for Vanderbilt to cover even under ideal circumstances. Add in the poor scheduling spot and take the big points with Ball State.
Predicted Score: Vanderbilt 34 – Ball State 23
NCAAF Pick: Ball State +26.5 (-108) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
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