NCAAF Pick: Utah +7 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
It’s almost Saturday and we’ve got more riveting matchups than a high-stakes poker game. As the season progresses the games are getting funner to pick. So let’s get into our college football Week 8 picks as we’re set for some thrilling clashes featuring ranked teams.
Last week delivered another unforgettable showdown etched in the annals of history when Oregon and Washington clashed in Seattle. The Huskies clinched victory as the Ducks’ last-second field goal attempt missed the mark. And guess what? We hit the bullseye with our Washington call.
This week, we’ve got a six-pack of games on our radar, including the #14 Utah facing off against #18 USC and the marquee game of the week, #7 Penn State versus #3 Ohio State in another Big 10 showdown.
The Buckeyes are in for their stiffest defensive challenge of the season, while USC is striving to right the ship but must contend with the PAC-12 reigning champions, a squad that handed them two losses last year. Can you say revenge game?
Let’s go ahead and break down the NCAAF odds in order to get ready for another thrilling Saturday!
Penn State Nittany Lions vs. Ohio State Buckeyes
Saturday, October 21, 2023 – 12:00 PM EDT at Ohio Stadium
Game of the Week
Penn State seems to have found itself in an advantageous position for this matchup. When you delve into their defensive prowess, they’re reigning supreme as the number one team in the country regarding success rate. Now, there’s quite a buzz around Penn State’s offense, which some say lacks explosiveness when facing an Ohio State defense that excels in limiting big plays.
But here’s the twist: when you scrutinize Drew Aller’s passing chart this season, you’ll notice he’s not exactly launching those deep bombs downfield. James Franklin is content with the check-down approach. The Nittany Lions coach prefers to rely on their sturdy running game and a robust offensive line that’s akin to a solid defensive line.
So when our colleague LT Profits found some late value on the Nittany Lions, I just had to roll along with this last chance pick.
The Pick
“Penn State has the number one pass defense in the country allowing just 123.8 passing yards per game while also ranking first in passing yards per attempt allowed at a miniscule 4.7.
“Also, as solid as Kyle McCord has been for Ohio State, advanced metrics show that he has completed just 15-of-42 passes under pressure, and Penn State has trusted its secondary enough to call blitzes 56% of the time this season. That rate may not be as high in this game given the talent of the Ohio State receivers, but the Nittany Lions should still blitz enough to make McCord the most uncomfortable he has been all year.” – LT Profits
NCAAF Pick: Penn State +5 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Texas Longhorns vs. Houston Cougars
Saturday, October 21, 2023 – 04:00 PM EDT at TDECU Stadium
In-State Rivalry
Here come the Texas Longhorns, revving up for a quick trip to lock horns with the Cougars in their inaugural Big 12 showdown. Texas boasts a sturdy 5-1 record and heads into this showdown fresh from a well-deserved breather during their bye week. However, they’re probably still licking their wounds after a thrilling loss to Oklahoma in the Red River Rivalry game.
On the flip side, the Houston Cougars recently wowed fans with their last-second Hail Mary Pass victory over West Virginia.
On the offensive front, quarterback Quinn Ewers showcased his prowess, connecting on 31 of 37 passes for 346 yards and a touchdown. Wide receivers Jordan Whittington and Xavier Worthy each surpassed the 100-yard mark. Meanwhile, running back Jonathon Brooks bulldozed through the opposition with 22 carries for 129 yards.
On the defensive side, Houston found themselves in the crosshairs of a relentless onslaught, surrendering a staggering 545 yards of total offense, including nearly 400 aerial yards. As my buddy Willie Bee says in his best bets article, Texas should cover with a touchdown to spare.
The Pick
“The Longhorns and Cougars are getting together for the first time in 21 years, and it’s their first collision as conference opponents in 28 years. Unfortunately, it’s a short-lived conference rivalry with Texas moving out of the Big 12 after this season. Texas has won the last seven clashes, that streak dating back to 1992. When the Longhorns and Cougars met in 2000-02, Texas won all three by a combined score of 142-37.
“We’ll definitely see more passing in this matchup than the Air Force-Navy game. Texas ranks third in the Big 12 throwing for 300 yards a game while Houston is fifth at 276 YPG. The difference is on defense where the Longhorns top the conference surrendering 323 YPG while the Cougars are last allowing over 100 yards more.” – Willie Bee
NCAAF Pick: Texas -23 (-108) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
Ole Miss Rebels vs. Auburn Tigers
Saturday, October 21, 2023 – 07:00 PM EDT at Jordan-Hare Stadium
Upset Alert?
It’s gonna be a road trip for Ole Miss this weekend, their first since they tangled with Alabama and lost. This time though, they’re hitting the highway and headed for Auburn, a team they beat 48-34 last season. The Rebels have shown some grit, bouncing back from that loss against the Crimson Tide, with back-to-back victories on their home turf.
First, it was the shootout with LSU, followed by a W against Arkansas. As for Auburn, they’re diving headfirst into a meaty part of their schedule. This Saturday they square off against their third-ranked opponent in as many weeks, having faced off against top-ranked Georgia and LSU recently.
The results against these SEC powerhouses make me think that our upset expert, Rainman, is onto something with Auburn.
The Pick
“At home, Auburn’s run defense allows 123.5 yards per game, which would position it 35th nationally. When they faced Georgia, the Tigers held Georgia to 74 yards and 1.4 YPC below its season averages.
“Ole Miss is a run-heavy team that will struggle to establish the run on the road. Its pass attack, as well as its ground game, would both be hindered further if quarterback Jaxson Dart remains banged up.” – Rainman
NCAAF Pick: Auburn +6.5 (-110) at BetOnline
Pittsburgh Panthers vs. Wake Forest Demon Deacons
Saturday, October 21, 2023 – 03:30 PM EDT at Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium
Coming Down
The Pittsburgh Panthers are hitting the NCAAF road, bound for a showdown with the Wake Forest Demon Deacons this Saturday. The Panthers are riding high after a 38-21 takedown of Louisville last weekend, handing the Cardinals their first defeat of the season after Louisville stormed through the first six games like a runaway freight train.
Wake Forest, on the other hand, had a tough go of it last Saturday, taking a 30-13 hit against Virginia Tech. They’re still hunting for their first ACC win at 0-3. But, with Pitt coming off an emotional win and having to hit the road, it’s no surprise to see the money flowing in favor of Wake Forest. Meanwhile, the ticket count keeps piling up for Pittsburgh.
Our college football expert, Jason Radowitz, found some value on the Deamon Deacons with our AI computer model. Let’s see why.
The Pick
“The Panthers have averaged just over 300 yards per game, including only 193.8 yards in the air. The offense has quality runners, but the offensive line hasn’t played well.
“Meanwhile, Wake Forest took a loss to Virginia Tech after benching its starter, Mitch Griffis, for poor play. Neither quarterback played very well, and the run game added only 1.1 yards per carry on 31 carries. That wasn’t impressive either. However, Wake Forest still has an offensive line capable of moving Pittsburgh’s defensive line. They’ve played well throughout the season.
“The Demon Deacons also have a terrific defense that has dominated in coverage and has looked great against the run.” – Jason Radowitz
NCAAF Pick: Wake Forest PK (-110) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
Minnesota Golden Gophers vs. Iowa Hawkeyes
Saturday, October 21, 2023 – 03:30 PM EDT at Kinnick Stadium
Worst of the Best
I must say, this Iowa team doesn’t quite earn my respect. They’re perhaps the worst ranked team we’ve seen in a while. However, the Hawkeyes have pulled off a surprising three-game winning streak and have boldly claimed, temporarily, the throne in the Big 10 West standings.
Meanwhile, Minnesota is lurking just a single game behind in the loss column. Minnesota’s recent track record isn’t stellar. They have three losses in their last four games, including a tough 52-10 beatdown by No. 2 Michigan in their most recent outing.
I’d venture to say that Minnesota has more in their arsenal than this Iowa team. The Hawkeyes have scraped by in a string of low-scoring matches. With the Golden Gophers favored by more than a field goal, the smart money seems to be leaning toward Minnesota. My friend Donnie RightSide seems to agree with me, via our YouTube Channel so let’s check it out.
The Pick
“Minnesota and Iowa are set to battle in the Big 10 West, and there’s a lot on the line. Currently, Iowa leads the division, and Minnesota is looking to climb back into contention. The betting line for this game favors Iowa by three and a half points. But, what’s worth noting, is the total set at a mere 31.5 points. And that’s for the full game, not just the first half.
“While we might not be overly enthusiastic about Minnesota’s chances, in a game with such a low expected total score, they can’t be counted out. We’ll take the three and a half points. What’s even more significant is that we’re putting the Iowa Hawkeyes on alert for a potential upset in this football matchup against Minnesota.” – Donnie RightSide
NCAAF Pick: Minnesota +4 (-108) at Heritage Sports
Utah Utes vs. USC Trojans
Saturday, October 21, 2023 – 08:00 PM EDT at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
PAC-12 Clash
I’ll confess, fading Caleb Williams this season has been a profitable move. However, it does feel strange betting against a team that brought me so much joy, back when Pete Carroll was at the helm. Fast forward a couple of decades, and Lincoln Riley seems to be grappling with some consistency issues.
USC has struggled mightily lately. It seems like opposing teams have finally figured out how to keep Williams locked in the pocket, minimizing his dynamic dual-threat abilities. On the flip side, the Utah Utes have faced their own quarterback woes, with starting QB Cameron Rising still nursing a troublesome knee injury.
Things have gotten so dire that the Utes have had to throw in their 3rd string QB in some games. But, here’s the kicker – the Utes have managed to stay in games, thanks in large part to their rock-solid defense.
The Pick
Williams didn’t look like that magical Heisman playmaker against Notre Dame last week. He threw for less than 200 yards and three interceptions. Now, he’s got head coach Kyle Whittingham’s defensive wizardry to contend with, and remember, they squared off twice last year.
It’s shaping up to be a rugged battle and, in that scenario, I’d put my money on Utah to cover that seven-point spread. They’ve got the upper hand with a solid defense so let’s keep having some more fun with these PAC-12 after-dark matchups and back the Utes on the road.
NCAAF Pick: Utah +7 (-108) at Heritage Sports
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
Calculators
