NCAAF Pick: Penn State +5 (-110) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
We have arrived at Week 8 of the 2023 College Football, and even though it is Friday, we found three best bets for Saturday holding last-minute value, including one in possibly the biggest game of the season so far.
These bets are value bets based on our proprietary model, many of which are underdogs. We have two such value dogs at the top sportsbooks this week where we are in fact predicting outright upsets, plus one undervalued favorite.
Penn State Nittany Lions vs. Ohio State Buckeyes
Saturday, October 21, 2023 – 12:00 PM EDT at Ohio Stadium
In perhaps the biggest game of the college football season so far where the winner has a clear path to the College Football Playoff, we are taking the points and calling for an upset by seventh ranked Penn State visiting third-ranked Ohio State in a Big Ten battle of 6-0 teams.
Pass Heavy Offense
While we get that Head Coach Ryan Day is 35-0 straight up inside the Big Ten vs. teams other than Michigan, this game right here may be his toughest non-Michigan conference matchup during his Ohio State tenure, mainly because the Buckeyes are not nearly as balanced offensively this season as in past years.
Yes, they are 15th in the nation in passing offense with Kyle McCord completing 64.1% of his passes for 275.2 yards per game with 11 touchdown passes vs. one interception, but the running game has been very pedestrian ranking just 93rd in rushing offense at 135.0 rushing yards per game on a modest 4.3 yards per carry. The Buckeyes have gotten away with this one-dimensional offense to this point, but they get an acid test this week.
Number One Pass Defense
That is because Penn State has the number one pass defense in the country allowing just 123.8 passing yards per game while also ranking first in passing yards per attempt allowed at a miniscule 4.7.
Also, as solid as McCord has been for Ohio State, advanced metrics show that he has completed just 15-of-42 passes under pressure, and Penn State has trusted its secondary enough to call blitzes 56% of the time this season. That rate may not be as high in this game given the talent of the Ohio State receivers, but the Nittany Lions should still blitz enough to make McCord the most uncomfortable he has been all year.
The Pick
So in what looks like a bad matchup stylistically for the third-ranked Buckeyes, we are calling for an upset although our official bet is taking the points at more than a field goal with Penn State.
Predicted Score: Penn State 26 – Ohio State 24
NCAAF Pick: Penn State +5 (-110) at Bovada
Minnesota Golden Gophers vs. Iowa Hawkeyes
Saturday, October 21, 2023 – 03:30 PM EDT at Kinnick Stadium
Although this Big Ten matchup is not nearly as high-profile as our first pick, the theme is the same as we are taking the points in a predicted outright upset by Minnesota vs. what we feel is an overrated Iowa team.
6-1 How?
The Hawkeyes have managed to go 6-1 despite literally having the worst offense in the country, ranking dead last among 133 FBS teams in total offense with a putrid 247.4 yards per game while ranking 131st in passing offense and 100th in rushing offense. Furthermore, Iowa has now lost just about its only two decent offensive weapons to injury in tight ends Luke Lachey and Erick All.
As you might expect given the record, the defense has done its part ranking 26th in total defense and fourth in yards per play allowed at just 4.3, but still, do you really want to lay more than a field goal with such an inept offense? Also, how much energy does the defense have left being asked to carry the load for an eighth straight game with Iowa yet to have a bye week?
Fresher and Healthier
Conversely, Minnesota will be the fresher team having had two weeks to prepare for this game following a bye, and the injury news is more encouraging for the Gophers with the expected return of running back Darius Taylor and their best linebacker Cody Lindenberg.
And while Minnesota enters at 3-3, two of the losses came vs. undefeated Michigan and North Carolina and they blew a 21-point fourth-quarter lead to Northwestern in the other loss. The Achilles Heel for the Golden Gophers has been a defense ranked 112th nationally in yards per play allowed at 6.2, but just about any defense can contain the atrocious Iowa offense, especially with an extra week to prepare.
The Pick
So, just like our first selection this week, we are calling for an outright upset by Minnesota with our official bet being taking the points catching more than a field goal.
Predicted Score: Minnesota 20 – Iowa 17
NCAAF Pick: Minnesota +4 (-110) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
Utah Utes vs. USC Trojans
Saturday, October 21, 2023 – 08:00 PM EDT at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
For our third selection, this a case where we feel USC is an undervalued favorite coming off a blowout loss at Notre Dame, so we are laying the touchdown at home vs. what we feel is an underwhelming Utah team.
Double Revenge
While the Notre Dame game was considered a marquee matchup, it was still a non-conference game and we expect a more concerted effort this week back in conference play, especially playing with double revenge after losing twice to Utah last season including a loss in the Pac-12 Championship Game that cost the Trojans any chance of playing in the College Football Playoff.
Heisman Trophy winner Caleb Williams had his worst game of the season vs. the Irish passing for just 199 yards with three interceptions vs. one touchdown pass after entering that game with 13 touchdown passes and one interception. But, just like the rest of the USC team, we expect a more focused effort from Williams here as, even with that stinker, he still keys a USC passing offense ranked eighth in the land.
Injuries Hurt
Utah again expects to be without quarterback Cam Rising and tight end Brant Kuithe, and even with a fully healthy team early in the season, the Utes still rank just 117th nationally in total offense and 125th in passing offense. The 5-1 record has been keyed by a defense ranked ninth in total defense and second in rushing defense.
However, the Utes have now been as good defending the pass ranking 45th in passing defense and 40th in yards per pass allowed, and that is while not yet facing a quarterback of Williams’ caliber. And let us not forget that while Utah has a huge home field advantage, their two road games this year have been a 14-point loss at Oregon State and a non-covering seven-point win to a bad Baylor team playing its backup quarterback.
The Pick
Thus, we feel that USC is very well equipped to get its double revenge on Utah with a safe win, so we are laying the points Saturday night.
Predicted Score: USC 34 – Utah 20
NCAAF Pick: USC -7 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
Calculators
