College Football Week 9 Best Bets: Knights to Conquer Cougars’ Undefeated Dreams
-
LT Profits
- October 25, 2024
Top NCAAF Pick: UCF -2.5 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
After going 7-1-1 over the last three weeks, we have now reached Week 9 of the 2014 College Football Season. And while it is Friday, that does not mean that there is still no value to be found on the Saturday card.
We are here with three plays from top sportsbooks that we feel all have betting value at the current NCAAF odds, with most plays based on our proprietary model.
Don’t forget to join BMR Forum’s Free $20K NFL 2024 Pick’em Pool contest for a shot at huge prizes throughout the regular season.
Washington Huskies vs. Indiana Hoosiers
Saturday, October 26, 2024 – 12:00 PM ET at Memorial Stadium
Indiana has shocked the world with a 7-0 start while Washington is only 4-3 with an overhauled roster relative to the team that was undefeated while reaching the National Championship Game last season. We expect the Hoosiers to remain undefeated with a handy, covering win.
Should Dominate on Ground
Now, we realize that Indiana quarterback Kurtis Rourke is extremely doubtful here with a thumb injury and he has been very efficient completing 74.6% of his passes with 15 touchdown passes against three interceptions. However, the Hoosiers have still run the ball 57% of the time with a great 1-2 punch in Ty Son Lawton (5.2 yards per carry) and Justice Ellison (7.0 YPC) with each back having scored eight touchdowns.
That has led to Indiana ranking 27th nationally in rushing offense at 202.4 yards per game. This makes for a nice matchup against a Washington defense that may lead the country in pass defense, but is just 67th in rushing defense (143.3 YPG) and 76th in yards per carry allowed (4.2).
And should the Huskies get the idea of loading the box if Rourke is indeed out, backup Tayven Jackson has starting experience, is in his third year in the program, and competed 7-of-8 passes in relief last week. He does not need to be great, just good enough to keep the Huskies’ defense honest, which we think he will be.
Rise in Class?
Washington did not have a single returning starter on offense this season, and while quarterback Will Rogers has performed well, the Huskies have not really beaten much. Their first three wins were all as prohibitive favorites over Weber State, Eastern Michigan, and Northwestern. Then their best win came at Michigan against a Wolverines team no longer in the Top 25.
Indiana represents a large jump in class, and while the Hoosiers have been blowing teams away offensively, do not sleep in their defense that ranks eighth in total defense. Yes, Washington ranks 17th in passing offense, but much of that came in the three cupcake wins. Rogers will now be throwing against an Indiana defense ranked eighth in passing yards per attempt (5.6) while getting pressured by an IU defensive line ranked 13th in sacks (21).
We see Indiana having a huge rushing edge in this game and Rogers not having the same passing success he has had for Washington against a better defense. That has us betting on the Hoosiers as moderate favorites.
Predicted Score: Indiana 35 – Washington 23
NCAAF Pick: Indiana -6.5 (-105) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
BYU Cougars vs. UCF Knights
Saturday, October 26, 2024 – 03:30 PM ET at FBC Mortgage Stadium
Just like Indiana in our previous write-up, BYU is also a surprising 7-0 so far. The difference though is that we feel they have been fortunate Paper Cougars, and we expect USF to burst their bubble with a home win in Orlando.
Can Luck Continue?
BYU has benefited this year from non-offensive touchdowns via both the defense and the return game, which is something that should not be sustainable. To wit, they are only 63rd in the country in total offense, which disconnects from their 34.9 points per game average. Two prime examples of great fortune were their wins over Kansas State and Arizona.
The Cougars beat Kansas State 38-9 and Arizona 41-19 while actually getting outgained in each game! They benefitted from a +6 combined turnover margin over those two games, the opponents going 1-for-7 on fourth down conversions and four defensive/return touchdowns. Then, BYU barely got by a banged up 3-4 Oklahoma State team 38-35 last week in a game where the Cowboys lost two of their best players to injury.
So, BYU could easily be 4-3 instead of remaining perfect. Furthermore, quarterback Jake Retzlaff has thrown seven interceptions and should probably have more considering his high turnover-worthy throws rate. Also, the offense as a whole is below the national average in both Passing and Rushing Success Rate per PFF.
Rushing Dominance Likely
Now, UCF is a disappointing 3-4, but all four of their losses can be considered “good” ones with Colorado, Florida, and Cincinnati all improving as the season has gone on and Iowa State still undefeated. And the Knights came very close to handing the Cyclones their first loss in a difficult environment at Ames last week before falling 38-35 while rushing for 354 yards!
Therein lies the huge edge we see for UCF here, as they rank third in the country in rushing at 280.3 yards per game while ranking in the top five in both Rushing EPA and Success Rate. Meanwhile, BYU ranks 64th in rushing defense and 77th in yards per carry allowed, and now must deal with a running quarterback since the Knights made the switch to Jacurri Brown two games ago.
We think that this will be midnight for the Cinderella Cougars with Central Florida manhandling them with their running game and with Retzlaff’s risky throws bound to catch up with him. Back UCF as small home favorites.
Predicted Score: Central Florida 35 – BYU 27
NCAAF Pick: UCF -2.5 (-108) at Heritage Sports
LSU Tigers vs. Texas A&M Aggies
Saturday, October 26, 2024 – 07:30 PM ET at Kyle Field
In a battle of two 6-1 teams that have each won six straight games since losing their season opener, we are taking the tiny underdog with the huge passing edge in LSU to prevail over Texas A&M.
Strength vs. Weakness
Garrett Nussmeier has been terrific in his first year as the LSU starting quarterback, completing 64.7% of his passes while throwing for 2222 yards with 18 touchdown passes vs. six interceptions. He is averaging 317.4 passing yards per game himself, helping lead the Tigers to the eighth-best passing attack in the country. Yes, the offense has been rather one-dimensional with LSU ranking 96th in rushing offense, but that may work just fine here.
That is because Texas A&M defends the run better anyway, but it is a middling 50th in passing defense while also allowing an alarming 11.7 yards per completion (77th). The Aggies’ secondary is ranked 87th in Coverage Rating per PFF, an area that Nussmeier should be able to attack all night long. That in itself makes LSU dangerous at an underdog price.
Tougher Matchup
On the flip side, Texas A&M is the opposite of LSU offensively as the Aggies rely on a strong running game. They are 13th in the land with 218.6 rushing yards per game and 20th in yards per rush at 5.4. The issue here though is that LSU’s quick-strike ability may take A&M out of its element by forcing more passing, especially if the Tigers get a lead.
And quarterback Conner Weigman has thrown more interceptions (4) than touchdown passes (3) this season, with the Aggies ranking 107th nationally in passing offense. Making things tougher on the Texas A&M offense here is LSU being solid defending the run, ranking 33rd in rushing defense allowing 114.9 yards per game on 3.7 yards per rush.
Moreover, the Tigers have been great at not allowing opponents to finish drives, allowing less than three points per possession when foes have crossed the LSU 40-yard-line.
So, while both teams are deserving of their fine records, we simply feel that the underdog Tigers have stylistic matchup advantages on both sides of the ball. Thus, we are taking the point with LSU in a game we think they win handily.
Predicted Score: LSU 34 – Texas A&M 24
NCAAF Pick: LSU +1 (-109) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
