NCAAF Pick: Purdue +2.5 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
Welcome to Week 9 of the 2023 College Football, and as usual we are here with our three best bets for Saturday holding last-minute value at this stage of the week.
These bets are value bets based on our proprietary model, many of which are underdogs, and true to form we have three value dogs on our slate for this week with the action beginning at 12 Noon ET. Check out the top sportsbooks for these enticing picks.
Oklahoma Sooners vs. Kansas Jayhawks
Saturday, October 28, 2023 – 12:00 PM EDT at David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium
Oklahoma is 7-0 and ranked sixth in the country, but the Sooners may be in for a tight tussle on the road here visiting 5-2 Kansas, so we are taking the points in this early affair.
Defense the Achilles Heel
Oklahoma survived a scare at home last week when barely getting by UCF 31-29 while outgaining the Knights by only 45 yards, and the team learned this week that leading receiver Andrel Anthony is now out for the season with a knee injury. Yes, quarterback Dillon Gabriel is playing at a Heisman Trophy level, but losing Anthony hurts and he has not gotten much support from a rushing attack averaging just 4.1 YPC.
But the bigger concerns are on the other side of the ball, as while the Sooners own one of the biggest wins of the season vs. Texas, the defense allowed 527 yards in that game and Oklahoma could have easily lost that game if not for a 3-0 turnover edge. Speaking of which, the Sooners have a +10 turnover margin for the season, so they have had luck on their side.
Offense Can Keep Pace
Kansas has the offense to keep pace with Oklahoma here, ranking 29th in the country in total offense at 443.3 yards per game and seventh in yards per play at 7.2, which is even better than Oklahoma’s yards per play of 6.5. Plus, the Jayhawks are coming off a bye, allowing for two weeks to prepare vs. a 91st-ranked Sooners pass defense.
Granted Kansas will likely be without quarterback Jalon Daniels due to a back injury, but luckily the Jayhawks are still in good hands with backup Jason Bean as he was the starter the last two years while competently directing a high-powered offense, including leading Kansas to a 42-point outburst at Oklahoma last season.
The Pick
Thus we expect Kansas to have success again offensively and they look like an overlay catching nearly double-digits at home, so take the points.
Predicted Score: Oklahoma 38 – Kansas 34
NCAAF Pick: Kansas +9.5 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Purdue Boilermakers vs. Nebraska Cornhuskers
Saturday, October 28, 2023 – 03:30 PM EDT at Memorial Stadium
If you are wondering why a 4-3 Nebraska team is favored by less than a field goal at home vs. a 2-5 Purdue team, look no further than the Cornhuskers’ injury report, and that plus Purdue facing a much tougher schedule has us betting the Boilermakers as small dogs.
Depleted Offense
Before last week’s ugly non-covering 17-9 win over Northwestern, the Huskers were down three running backs and two wide receivers due to injury with four of those five players done for the season. Then they incurred four more injuries vs. the Wildcats with leading receiver Billy Kemp and their three most experienced offensive linemen all going down.
This is a team already struggling offensively ranking 106th nationally in total offense, and the Huskers should now be easy to defend given their latest setbacks. That will put a lot of pressure on a defense that, while ranking a stout fifth in the country in rushing defense, is only 83rd in passing defense, an area Purdue can exploit.
Top 10 Schedule
Now on paper, Purdue ranks just 79th in total offense and 92nd in total defense, but keep in mind they have faced one of the 10 toughest schedules in the country and Nebraska represents a huge drop in class after getting blown out by Ohio State last game. And that was two weeks ago, so the Boilers are the fresher team coming off a bye.
The tough schedule to this point has not allowed Purdue to show off its new pass-happy offense under first-year offensive coordinator Graham Harrell with any kind of success, but that should change here with two weeks to prepare vs. an aforementioned suspect Nebraska pass defense.
The Pick
We simply do not see how Nebraska will be able to generate much offense here given all the injuries, while at the same time, we expect an improved passing attack for Purdue, so back the Boilermakers in a small upset.
Predicted Score: Purdue 21 – Nebraska 17
NCAAF Pick: Purdue +2.5 (-108) at Heritage Sports
Cincinnati Bearcats vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys
Saturday, October 28, 2023 – 08:00 PM EDT at Boone Pickens Stadium
Cincinnati has lost five straight games following a 2-0 start, but they have played better than that and could be catching Oklahoma State in a prime lookahead spot, so we are taking the points with the Bearcats.
One Eye on Bedlam?
Given that Cincinnati has lost five straight, it would seem very easy for Oklahoma State to come out flat in this game while already looking ahead to the final installment of Bedlam vs. Oklahoma next week. And frankly, while the Cowboys have been fine offensively, the defense is not playing well enough to afford a letdown.
During Oklahoma State’s current three-game winning streak since a Week 5 bye, the defense has allowed 448 yards per game, nearly offsetting the excellent 486 yards averaged by the offense, and the Cowboys have been lucky over the three games with a +4 turnover margin and a Pick 6.
Unlucky Streak
Meanwhile, Cincinnati has been on the opposite end of the luck spectrum in four of the five losses during the losing streak, outgaining three of those opponents and getting outgained by only 50 yards by undefeated Oklahoma in the other loss. They allowed a game-changing defensive score in two of the losses and have an unlucky -6 turnover margin over the five-game losing streak.
Furthermore, despite the record, Cincinnati ranks 19th in the country in rushing defense, which is pivotal vs. an Oklahoma State offense that has been heavily reliant on the run since the bye while owning a passing offense ranked in the bottom three in the nation in the advanced Explosiveness metric.
The Pick
So with opposite regressions expected for these two teams and with Oklahoma State potentially already thinking about the Oklahoma game, take the points with Cincinnati.
Predicted Score: Oklahoma State 30 – Cincinnati 28
NCAAF Pick: Cincinnati +7.5 (-110) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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